Wednesday March 23, 2005 - 14:53:25 GMT
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GVI BiWeekly Forex Survey Results
In the latest bi-weekly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar improved against the euro. The survey was completed before the March 22 Fed policy decision was released. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.3158 from 1.3321 two weeks earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 1.3175.
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (0-100 50=neutral) remained neutral the EURUSD after the recent change in the spot rate to 48 from 53 previously. The GVI-Cumino index measures the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels as of the time when forecasts were made.
The USDJPY mean dollar forecast improved to 104.09 from 103.22 two weeks earlier. The USDJPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 105.09. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index remained bearish the dollar from current levels from two weeks earlier. It was 36 from 34 on March 10.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to fall modestly to $54.06 in 3 months from the current spot vs. the previous $53.47 estimate.
In special question, 48% to 39% of the respondents said they thought the USDJPY would trade at 100.00 before it trades at 110.00. 13% saw neither in 2005.
Analysis courtesy Cumino:
GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
(Data were collected before FOMC).
EUR USD 3 months: (First day close 1.3175, average responses1.3158, Boundaries 1.3525-1.2825)
48% (47%). 29% 47% 24% (28% 51% 21%). Roughly unchanged, in absolute terms and among components.
USD JPY 3 months: (First day close 105.09, average responses 104.09, Boundaries 108.09-102.09)
36% (49%). 34% 60 % 7%(16% 71% 13%). Bearish USD in absolute and relative terms. Strong bearish increased from 16% to 34% of the responses, bullish moved from 13% to 7%, while neutrals decreased by 111 percentage points. Should this survey be consistent with some general real positions in the market, a squeeze higher cannot be ruled out.
OIL 3 months: (1st day close $57.46, average responses $54.06, Boundaries $62.46-$52.46)
33% (50%) 50% 35% 15% (24% 52% 24%). Very bearish in absolute and relative terms.
Strong bearish passed from 24% to 50%, strong bullish from 24% to 15%, neutrals from 52% to 35%. The neutrals are near an historical low, and this is consistent with a view (right or wrong) that attaches more speculative reasons to the prices than real demand.
Note: boundaries define strong bullish, neutrals, strong bearish.
Responses above the high boundary are bullish, under the low boundary are bearish, while they are defined as neutral if they fall within the band. Boundaries determined by an option sell straddle strategy, i.e. a strategy that collects a premium and gains if spot at the expiry falls within the boundaries.
For complete survey results see:
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