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Tuesday June 22, 2010 - 09:40:55 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 22/06/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis June 22, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: MPC Meeting Minutes
European traders anticipate the MPC Meeting Minutes. The Bank of England
(BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed
record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks
earlier. It gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK. It also
records the votes of the individual members of the Committee. If the BoE
is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as
positive/bullish for the GBP.
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report, the
important 1.2389, and dropped back below 1.23, hitting 1.2282 during the
Asian session, but without being able to reach the suggested target
1.2240. When looking at the attached chart, we immediately realize that
this retreat could mean a lot. It came from the top of the hourly chart
rising trend channel, exactly, and started a strong fall. That is why we
expect this drop to go on, and keep escaping further away from the
channel top. And since the bottom of this channel is already below 1.20,
we expect the price to go below 1.20 on the medium term. As for the
short term, the Asian session low which was tested twice 1.2282, will be
support of the day. If broken, the price will keep dropping, targeting
Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole rise from this cycleâ€™s low
1.1875. These levels are at 1.2170 & 1.2100, which became a critical
medium term level. Todayâ€™s resistance is at 1.2348, and in case the
price succeeds in breaking above it, it will give itself a chance to
test the top of the channel yet again. The top of the channel will be
the first target of this break, at 1.2457, and if broken, we will jump
â€¢ 1.2282: Asian session low.
â€¢ 1.2170: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rising move from this cycleâ€™s low
to yesterdayâ€™s high
â€¢ 1.2100: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from this cycleâ€™s
low to yesterdayâ€™s high
â€¢ 1.2348: important intraday level.
â€¢ 1.2457: the top of the rising trend channel of the hourly chart.
â€¢ 1.2519: May 6th high.
The Dollar/Yen successfully jumped to the broken trend line we talked
about previously, and performed a classic retest move, very accurate,
before dropping 75 pips, in yet another confirmation that the bears are
beating the bulls! With this classic retest, the break of the rising
trend line from May 20th will continue to have a tremendous effect on
the short term direction, and may be the medium term as well. But, we
need a break of todayâ€™s support at 90.75 to say that we are on the way
to the same set of targets we suggested yesterday. Meaning, if we break
90.75, we will target 89.81 first, and may be 88.96 later. On the other
hand, it is required to keep trading below the falling line descending
trend line from June 14th high, in order for the negative technical
outlook to keep prevailing. This important line is running currently at
91.25. If we keep trading below this level, it will probably fall more
& more. But, if we break above this level, the Dollar will say no to
the downside scenario, and will test the area which stopped the rise
twice on June 7th & June 14th at 92.07, and then 92.56.
â€¢ 90.75: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€¢ 89.81: May 26th low.
â€¢ 88.96: May 20th low.
â€¢ 91.25: the descending trend line from Jun 14th top on the hourly
â€¢ 92.07: the important resistance area holding Jun 7th & 14th.
â€¢ 92.56: Apr 13th low.
trading analysis written by Munther
Marji for Forexpros.
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash
Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be
suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether
trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge,
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change at any time.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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