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Tuesday June 22, 2010 - 09:40:55 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 22/06/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis June 22, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: MPC Meeting Minutes
European traders anticipate the MPC Meeting Minutes. The Bank of England
(BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed
record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks
earlier. It gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK. It also
records the votes of the individual members of the Committee. If the BoE
is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as
positive/bullish for the GBP.
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report, the
important 1.2389, and dropped back below 1.23, hitting 1.2282 during the
Asian session, but without being able to reach the suggested target
1.2240. When looking at the attached chart, we immediately realize that
this retreat could mean a lot. It came from the top of the hourly chart
rising trend channel, exactly, and started a strong fall. That is why we
expect this drop to go on, and keep escaping further away from the
channel top. And since the bottom of this channel is already below 1.20,
we expect the price to go below 1.20 on the medium term. As for the
short term, the Asian session low which was tested twice 1.2282, will be
support of the day. If broken, the price will keep dropping, targeting
Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole rise from this cycleâ€™s low
1.1875. These levels are at 1.2170 & 1.2100, which became a critical
medium term level. Todayâ€™s resistance is at 1.2348, and in case the
price succeeds in breaking above it, it will give itself a chance to
test the top of the channel yet again. The top of the channel will be
the first target of this break, at 1.2457, and if broken, we will jump
â€¢ 1.2282: Asian session low.
â€¢ 1.2170: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rising move from this cycleâ€™s low
to yesterdayâ€™s high
â€¢ 1.2100: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from this cycleâ€™s
low to yesterdayâ€™s high
â€¢ 1.2348: important intraday level.
â€¢ 1.2457: the top of the rising trend channel of the hourly chart.
â€¢ 1.2519: May 6th high.
The Dollar/Yen successfully jumped to the broken trend line we talked
about previously, and performed a classic retest move, very accurate,
before dropping 75 pips, in yet another confirmation that the bears are
beating the bulls! With this classic retest, the break of the rising
trend line from May 20th will continue to have a tremendous effect on
the short term direction, and may be the medium term as well. But, we
need a break of todayâ€™s support at 90.75 to say that we are on the way
to the same set of targets we suggested yesterday. Meaning, if we break
90.75, we will target 89.81 first, and may be 88.96 later. On the other
hand, it is required to keep trading below the falling line descending
trend line from June 14th high, in order for the negative technical
outlook to keep prevailing. This important line is running currently at
91.25. If we keep trading below this level, it will probably fall more
& more. But, if we break above this level, the Dollar will say no to
the downside scenario, and will test the area which stopped the rise
twice on June 7th & June 14th at 92.07, and then 92.56.
â€¢ 90.75: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€¢ 89.81: May 26th low.
â€¢ 88.96: May 20th low.
â€¢ 91.25: the descending trend line from Jun 14th top on the hourly
â€¢ 92.07: the important resistance area holding Jun 7th & 14th.
â€¢ 92.56: Apr 13th low.
trading analysis written by Munther
Marji for Forexpros.
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash
Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be
suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether
trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge,
and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial
investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to
change at any time.
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Trading Ideas for 12 March 2018
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 12 Mar 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction
Tue 13 Mar 2018
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
AA 12:30 US- CPI
A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction
Wed 14 Feb 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction
Thu 15 Mar 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI
A 12:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 16 Mar 2018
A 10:00 EZ- final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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