***Economic data*** - (CA) Canada May Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.3%e - (CA) Canada May Core CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%e - (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e June 19th: -0.5% w/w; +2.5% y/y - (BR) Brazil Jun IBGE CPI-15 M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e - (PD) Poland May Core inflation M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e - (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e June 19th: +3.1% y/y; MTD -0.4% v May - (BR) Brazil May Current Account: -$2.0B v -$2.1Be; Foreign Investment: $3,5B v $1.7Be - (US) Jun Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 23 v 20e - (US) Apr House Price Index: 0.8% v 0.3% prior - (US) May Existing Home Sales: 5.66M v 6.12Me - (EU) Euro Zone Jun Advance Consumer Confidence: -17 v -19e
- The slight bounce off lows seen at the end of yesterday's US equity session continued in the initial minutes of trade this morning, despite mild risk aversion that characterized European trading. After gaining from the open, US indices traded down to around even on the disappointing May existing home sales. In Europe, anxiety remains high over the health of the banking sector after French bank Crdit Agricole said it would book a write-down of about â‚¬400M in the first half this year from its holding in Emporiki Bank of Greece and Fitch downgraded BNP's ratings. The UK government outlined its 2010-16 emergency budget, which is intended to eliminate the structural budget deficit through steep spending cuts and tax hikes, including a VAT tax of 20% (up from the 17.5%). Front-month crude is in the read, down slightly at $77.40 or so, while spot gold is around $1,241, up on the day but still some $20 below the all-time highs seen in yesterday's session. US Treasury markets opened in the green, riding the coat tails of UK Gilt markets that initially surged on the initial details of the UK budget. The US 10-year yield is back to 3.2% while the 10-year GILT offers 3.45%.
- Walgreen disappointed with soft Q3 earnings, although revenues were in line with expectations. Executives warned that they remain cautious on the US economy. In regards to the CVS pharmacy benefits dustup, executive would only say that they are "very pleased" by the new arrangement with CVS. WAG is down 6%, while competitor RAD is down 8%. CVS is around even. Carnival Plc was more or less in line with expectations in its Q2 report, although its guidance for next quarter was below par, while its 2010 guidance remains below expectations as well. Carnival executives said pricing is improving moderately, and said they expect pricing to continue improving. Shares of CCL are -2%. Commercial Metals Company surprised with a smaller-than-expected loss and strong revenue in its Q3 and said the company would be "moderately profitable" in its Q4. In other news, Patriot Coal is down around 9% after announcing that it would close a key mine due to "adverse geologic conditions."
- With the focus on the new UK budget in the early part of the New York session, participants were gunning for GBP/USD and EUR/USD related sell-stop orders below key pivot areas of 1.4700 and 1.2250, respectively. The emergency budget seems to be tough enough to hold off a sovereign ratings downgrade as it is being taken positively by markets. The market concluded that UK interest rates would stay low for an extended period, given the well-bid status of European equities as a whole. Overall the "confident tone" in Exchequer Osborne's comment helped the situation. EUR/CHF continues to set fresh all-time lows, testing below 1.3600.
***Looking Ahead*** - (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 2-year Notes - (CA) Bank of Canada's Lane speaks - (BR) Brazil May tax Collections (BRL): 60.5Be v 70.9B prior - (AR) Argentina May Trade Balance: No est v $1.9B prior - (US) API weekly energy inventories
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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