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Tuesday June 22, 2010 - 20:35:50 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Mixed Markets

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis 


Mixed Markets

20:00 GMT- June 22  (global-view.com) Trade Tuesday was dull in North America.  Nevertheless, forex trading was dominated by EUR weakness pretty much across the board. Dealers on GVI Forex noted early chatter of a very large orders to sell EUR related to portfolio rebalancing related to the Chinese change in forex policy for the CNY (modest revaluation and more flexible exchange rate). As for the USD, it remains in limbo, below its recent highs, but the markets appear to have reached a point where they no longer are ready to push it much lower. It is as if they are looking for the next impetus to trade on. 

Looking at the higher profile risk trades, we do not see a lot going on there at the moment. Interest in the energy markets could start to pick up at any time as we move into the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The German IFO business sentiment data out today were mixed. Canadian CPI data were benign and a U.S. housing data were disappointing. 

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 20:15
EUR 1.2265 -58 JPY 110.89 -129 JPY 133.83 -47
GBP 1.4803 49 GBP 82.85 -67 CHF 163.94 -18
CHF 1.1075 -49 CHF 1.3583 -125 CHF vs.    
JPY 90.41 -62       JPY 81.63 -20

The EURUSD is lower on the day and the GBPUSD is higher. The EURGBP is down. Traders are maintaining a close watch on the European sovereign debt situation In the GBP the U.K. new government is weak. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.

The EURCHF is lower. SNB intervention tactics are evolving. Periodically, the SNB has taken a strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The EURCHF mad a new record low on Tuesday.

The USDJPY is down and the EURJPY cross is lower. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         20:15
CAD 1.0282 50 AUD 0.8716 -57 Gold 1241 8.70
CNY 6.8137 159 NZD 0.7040 -47 WTI 77.21 -0.33

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost on a daily basis. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they  are mixed. The Bank of Canada recently raised interest rates by 25bps but the BOC sent dovish signals afterwards. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, RBA monetary policy is now steady. The RBNZ is currently in a tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We had been favoring AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally, but some doubts are creeping in.

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed down. European bourses ended lower. U.S. equities are down. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.19%, -6 bps. 

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           20:15
NIK 10113 -125 DAX 6269 -24 DJIA 10293 -128
HSI 20819 -93 FTSE 5247 -52 S&P 1095 -16
SSEC 2589 3 SMI 6463 0 NAS 2261 -22
ASX 4558 -54       TSE 11825 -131

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Far East markets see no major releases on Wednesday. In Europe , Eurozone flash PMI data are due. BOE policy board meeting minutes are also slated.  In North America , Canadian Retail Sales data are awaited. The U.S. releases new homes and the Fed policy decision and sees a five-year note auction.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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