Wednesday June 23, 2010 - 03:30:17 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 23-Jun-2010 - 0326 GMT
The US Equities fell following an unexpected decline in the May US Home sales yesterday. The Dow (10293.52) was down 1.43% and the Nasdaq (2261.80) was down 1.19%. The Dow may face some Resistance in the region of 10550-650 in the coming days.
All Asians are in the Red today following the weak US Home sales. The Nikkei (9931.82) is down 1.79%, the Shanghai (2574.99) is down 0.53%, Taiwan Weighted (7562.93) is down 0.65% and the Seoul Composite (1724.74) is down 0.39%. In India, the Sensex (17749.69) and the Nifty (5316.55) was down about 0.70% yesterday. The Sensex has multiple Resistances in the region of 17900-18150 and it may not be able to strongly break above this in the coming days.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4531.30) is down 1.09%.
Crude (77.55) is ranged between the Support at 76 and the Resistance at 78.00-50 region. A breakout on either side of this range would determine the further direction of move. However, the stronger dollar might keep up the downside pressure which leaves a higher chances of breaking below 76. The US Crude inventory data release is due today.
Gold (1241.20) is continuing to trade below 1250. However, much strength is not seen on its downmove below 1250 which is keeping up our overall bullish sentiment intact.
The Euro (1.2274) is continuing to trade weak with the 200-DMA (currently at 1.2315) providing strong Resistance over the last few sessions for a bounce back above 1.23. We might see 1.2200-1.2180 on the downside today. Dollar-Yen (90.52), though continuing to trade below the 200-DMA (90.90) is not showing much strength to see a strong break below the Support at 90.20-00 region. It might be ranged between 90-91 for some time. Euro-Yen Cross (111.09) is keeping up the broader downtrend intact and might see further dip towards 110.
The Pound (1.4825) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 1.4686. The 55-DMA Resistance is currently at 1.4876 and a strong break above it might take it up towards 1.50. Dollar-Swiss (1.1089) is ranged between 1.10-1.1150. The 55-DMA (1.1147) is a significant Support-turned-Resistance level to watch for. Aussie (0.8723) has come off from yesterday's high of 0.8833 and a strong break below 0.87 might see further downmove towards 0.8600-0.8550 in the coming days.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1186 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3850. Dollar-Rupee has closed higher yesterday at 46.24/25 and has a good chance of seeing further rise to 46.40-50 today..
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.54%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 1 bps and 10 bps each to quote at 0.71% and 3.16% respectively.
The US Fed's interest rate decision is due today.
08:30 GMT UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 hold...Previous 0-0-9 hold
14:00 GMT May US New Home Sales
...Expected 435K...Previous 504K
8:15 GMT US FOMC Interest Rate
...Expected <0.25%...Previous <0.25%
May GER IFO Business Expectations
...Actual 102.4...Previous 103.7
May GER IFO Business Situations
...Actual 101.1...Previous 99.4
May GER IFO Business Climate
...Actual 101.8...Previous 101.5
CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Actual 1.4% ...Previous 1.8%
May US Existing Home Sales
...Actual 5.66 Mln...Previous 5.79 Mln
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