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Wednesday June 23, 2010 - 14:34:32 GMT
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Demand for Higher Risk Currencies Underpin Equities

The U.S. Dollar is trading weaker against most majors this morning ahead of this afternoon’s Fed announcement. Volume is expected to be light, but traders should expect increased volatility because of thin trading conditions.


The big mover overnight is the September British Pound. After an early sell-off on Tuesday morning, the Sterling righted itself following the U.K. budget announcement. Going into the meeting there appeared to be uncertainty. Following the announcement, investors seemed optimistic about the new government’s ability to instill austere financial measures to solidify the economy.


Fundamentally the Sterling received a boost overnight after minutes from the Bank of England’s latest interest rate policy meeting showed one member wanted to raise rates.


Technically the British Pound survived a test of a 50% level at 1.4686. This morning’s strong rally has created enough upside momentum to challenge a .618 level at 1.4947. A breakout over this level is likely to trigger an acceleration to the upside.


This morning the September Euro is trading slightly better in limited action. On Tuesday, the September Euro was under pressure most of the day following Monday’s technical closing price reversal top and renewed European banking concerns following the downgrading of BNP Paribas earlier in the week.


Traders took profits on long positions and shorts reapplied pressure following a 10 day rally which saw the single-currency rally from 1.1876 to 1.2467. Investors are concerned that the Fitch downgrading of BNP Paribas may only be the tip of the iceberg as several other banks may be inline to accept a similar downgrade.


Technically the Euro confirmed Monday’s closing price reversal top and is well on its way to reaching its first objective at 1.2171, followed by 1.2102. This will be a critical test for the Euro. Bullish traders will try to build a secondary higher bottom in this retracement zone. If the recent rally was truly only short-covering then this area will be meaningless as renewed short-selling will dominate the trade.


Stocks are expected to open flat to better. Traders are taking a cautious approach to the markets this morning ahead of this afternoon’s Fed announcement. Under pinning the market is stronger demand for risky currencies.


U.S. equity markets broke sharply on Tuesday after disappointing housing data encouraged profit-taking after the recent strong run-up and investors expressed worry about the strength of the economic recovery. The weakness in the equity markets was broad-based as all sectors including industrial, energy and consumer were hit with selling pressure. Strength in regional manufacturing may have helped limit losses.


The stock market was under pressure overnight Tuesday following a technical reversal top on Monday and renewed concerns about the European banking industry. Investors were also leaning on the market on speculation that China’s central bank was going to intervene to slow down the pace of the Yuan’s rise. This further aggravated investors who believed that China’s decision to allow the Yuan to rise against the Dollar was going to mean bigger profits for U.S. exporters and manufacturers.


Investors tried to hold the equity markets in check early in the trading session but bids were pulled and selling pressure increased when the U.S. announced that sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. slipped 2.2% in May to a 5.66 million annual rate. Because the decline came following two months of increases, traders were surprised by the news. Many blamed the end of the government’s tax incentive program for first time buyers for the loss.


Continuing to weigh on trader’s minds was the debt banking situation in Europe. Following Monday’s downgrade by the Fitch credit rating service of BNP Paribas, traders remained nervous throughout the day. Investors are now questioning whether other European banks will face similar crises.


Technically the September E-mini S&P 500 confirmed Monday’s closing price reversal top. This chart pattern suggests a 2 to 3 day break to at least 1083.25 to 1072.50. Traders should watch for a minimum correction in the September E-mini NASDAQ to 1854.75 to 1834.50. The September E-mini Dow chart suggests a break to 10073 to 9964 is likely over the near-term.


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Tue 17 July 2018
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AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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