***Economic data*** - (CZ) Czech Central Bank leaves the Repo Rate unchanged at 0.75%; as expected - (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 18th: -5.9% v 17.7% prior - (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Consumer Confidence: 118.5 v 116.1 prior - (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) left Deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%; As expected - (CA) Canada Apr Retail Sales M/M: -2.0% v -0.4%e; Ex Autos M/M: -1.2% v 0.0%e - (BE) Belgium Jun Business Confidence: -7.7 v -5.0e - (BR) Brazil May Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): v 1.47T prior; Private Bank Lending: v 855M prior - (MX) Mexico May Preliminary Trade Balance: $178,8M v $100.0Me - (US) May New Home Sales: 300K v 410Ke - (US) DOE weekly energy inventories: Crude: +2.0M v -1Me; Gasoline: -762K v +250Ke; Distillate: +297K v +1.4Me; Utilization: 89.4% v 88.2%e
- After a rough finish to yesterday's session, US equity markets looked to stabilize early on. Stocks were shrugging off renewed sovereign rumors a downgrade out of Europe to open flat to higher, but early in the session the Bears regained control after a soft US May new home sales report buoyed double dippers. Sales plunged more than 30% m/m, weighed down by the expiration of the home buyer tax credit while median prices fell to a fresh 7 year low. Stock declines are modest thus far, but money is flowing to the safe haven that is the US Treasury market. The US 10-year benchmark yield is nearing 8-month lows onces again at 3.10%. Commodity prices are giving way as well led by July crude down more than $2 to trade with a $75 handle. August gold is near its lowest level in a week back below $1230.
- Shares of Carmax have popped after strong quarterly results. Top and bottom line numbers handily beat consensus estimates while gross profits were up 22% y/y. The tech sector has seen shares of Red Hat and Jabil Circuit both advance following results. Medtronic is down 2.25% after reiterating full year guidance but noting currency translation costs would cut into their next quarter's eps.
- Risk aversion seemed destined to find an excuse during the NY morning in a wild rumor-filled session. The AUD was initially centered stage on reports that the Australia PM Rudd was expected to resign following a leadership challenge. The PM did confirm a challenge to his leadership but felt capable of the vote set for Thursday (Jun 24th). The USD seemed to reverse earlier weakness against the Euro despite comments from German VDMA that the current level of EUR/USD was satisfactory and did not favor a weak Euro. However, The Euro began gathering negative momentum on renewed chatter of a possible rating agency was prepared to take sovereign action against France with today's rumor suggesting that Fitch would lower its outlook on France to "Watch negative' from "Stable". The May US New Homes sales plunged to a record low following the expiration of a tax incentive and sent the USD and JPY to their best levels of the session. The CAD currency broadly weaker following weaker-than-expected retail sales data and sell-off in commodities. USD/CAD tested above 1.0450 area after stating the Asian session below the 1.03 handle.
***Looking Ahead*** - 11:30 Investor George Soros delivers lecture in Germany - 12:30 (GE) German Fin Min Schaeuble - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $38B in 5-year Notes - 14:15 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decisions: Expected to maintain interest rates at 0.25%
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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