Thursday June 24, 2010 - 03:36:27 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 24-Jun-2010 - 0334 GMT
The US markets was mixed and traded lower most part of the day before closing flat yesterday. The Fed decided to leave the rates unchanged as expected. The Dow (10298.44) was up 4.92 points and the Nasdaq (2254.23) was down 7.57 points.
In Asia, the Nikkei (9940.37) is up 0.17% and Shanghai (2.566.03) is down 0.15%. The Sensex and Nifty has closed yesterday at 17755.94 (up 6.25 points) and 5323.15 (up 6.60 points)
Crude (76.16) fell sharply from the high of 77.83 breaking below 76 (as expected) in the intraday trade and has closed at 76.35 yesterday. The EIA's data showing an unexpected increase in the US Crude inventories and economic recovery concerns pulled down the price. A strong break below 76 might pull it further down towards 74-72 in the coming days.
Gold (1234.10) is continuing to trade below 1250 and is not showing much strength on its upmove to see a strong break above 1250. Support is seen at 1220-10 region and a strong break below it might increase the chances of further downmove breaking below 1200. However, the broader picture is bullish.
Weakness in Dollar prevailing all over. The Euro (1.2342) has bounced back and is now trading near the Resistance at 1.2350-70, a strong break above which might see 1.2450 once again today. Dollar-Yen (89.88) retaining its downside pressure and might see 89.25-00 on a strong break below the Support at 89.75. Euro-Yen Cross (110.93) has bounced back from its low of 109.89 following the rise in Euro.
The Pound (1.4992) has risen sharply breaking above the Resistance at the 55-DMA (1.4873). Immediate Resistance is seen at 1.50 and if it holds today we might see a pull back to 1.49-48. Dollar-Swiss (1.1037), though continuing to trade lower, is not showing much downside momentum. 1.0950-30 is a very significant Support region seen on the downside. Aussie (0.8750) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 0.8658. Resistance is seen at 0.8800 (55-DMA) which might continue to hold for some time.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1185 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3865. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.17/18 yesterday and might fall today following the dollar weakness seen all over.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.54%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 3 bps and 4 bps each to quote at 0.68% and 3.12% respectively.
The US Fed left the interest rates unchanged at record low (<0.25%) for an extended period of time and has also signaled worried about US growth due to the Euro zone's debt crisis.
The BOE minutes released yesterday showed a split in its decision on the interest rates as one of the policy maker voted for an increase in the interest rates while seven other voted for leaving the rates unchanged.
12:30 GMT May US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected -1.0%...Previous 2.8%
UK BOE Minutes
...Actual 1-0-7...Previous 0-0-9 hold
May US New Home Sales
...Actual 300K...Previous 446K
US FOMC Interest Rate
...Actual <0.25%...Previous <0.25%
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