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Thursday June 24, 2010 - 14:53:24 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Thursday, June 24, 2010 10:51:26 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -91 S&P -12 NASDAQ -24

***Economic data***
- (BR) Brazil May Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.1%e
- (US) May Durable Goods Orders: -1.1% v -1.4%e; Durables Ex-Transportation: 0.9% v 1.0%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 457K v 463Ke; Continuing Claims: 4.548M v 4.550Me
- (TU) Turkey Jun Industrial Confidence: 111.7 v 115.1 prior; Capacity Utilization: 73.6% v 73.4% prior
- (MX) Mexico May Unemployment Rate: 5.1% v 5.2%e
- (US) EIA Natural Gas Inventories: bcf v +75 to +85 bcf estimate range

- US stock markets opened lower and remain under considerable pressure as investor sentiment remains unable to gain traction in the midst of European debt concerns. Despite an endless stream of what are supposed to be reassuring comments from various officials and agencies, EU peripheral CDS spreads are widening in some cases to new all time highs. US economic data did provide some hope with both May durable goods and weekly jobless claim figures topping expectations, but investors appear to be focused on
Europe once again. US Treasury prices continue to rally sending rates toward some key market levels. The long bond got within a few basis points of 4% while the 10-year benchmark note is now heading towards 3%. Gold is catching a bit of a bid moving back towards $1245.

- Retail stocks are under some notable pressure after several key earnings reports. Bed Bath & Beyond is losing nearly 4% after reporting Q1 results and guiding Q2 SSS up in the low single digits. Investors are giving Nike the boot after struggling to meet Q4 expectations and suggesting currency headwinds will affect 2011 results. Though shares have rallied back into the green, Herman Miller missed both top and bottom line Q4 results. Paychex shares have pared some early declines as well, but the
Co. offered little confidence that the US jobs market is poised to take off when they guided their payroll service revenue flat for 2011.

- The NY morning switched its focus from the European peripheral concerns to the outright
US interest rates. Dealers were keenly aware that the 10-year Note yield could dip below the 3.0% level given the tweak in the FOMC statement on Wednesday and this has painted a mixed picture for the dollar. The JPY and CHF pairs remained on a firmer footing as equity markets linger in the lower quarter portion of the session range. For the moment the EUR/USD becoming a bit de-sensitized to the peripheral spreads. The EUR/USD was holding above the 1.23 level despite the Greek 5-year Credit Default Swap hitting a fresh all-time high over the 1,000bps level. Dealers commenting that the widening of the CDS seemed attributed chatter by pending lapse of €442B in its 12-month LTRO on July 1st. There was some concern that if the LTRO was behind the widening of the peripheral spreads the situation could move beyond Greece as the ECB does has shorter term plans in place but the €750B EU rescue fund was not in full effect.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Q1 GDP Y/Y: 3.5%e v 2.5% prior
- 12:00 (FR) France May Net Change Jobseekers: No est v 15.7K prior; Total Jobseekers: No est v 2.68M prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 7-year Notes
- 16:00 (US) Apr RPX Composite 28-day Y/Y: No est v 2.2% prior
- (UK) BOE Financial Stability Report


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