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Friday June 25, 2010 - 20:18:33 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Choppy Session

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis 


Choppy Session

20:00 GMT- June 25  (global-view.com)  The G20 meeting is getting underway. Decisions that are likely to impact the forex markets are not anticipated. China  managed to defuse the yuan situation with a very modest revaluation of the currency. We expect governments who have their budgets under control to lecture those who do not. Pressure from the Obama administration on Germany to increase government spending will be ignored.

The focus of trade on Friday was once again on the EUR. The European common currency was generally weaker against virtually all the major currencies until mid-session and made a new record low against the Swissy Forex trading in the U.S. today saw a small downward (second) revision to 1Q10 GDP and an improved final June University of Michigan survey reading.

Japanese CPI data released today (both core and headline) were both negative on the yr/yr measure and heightened concerns about deflation in the economy. Pressure is expected to mount on the BOJ to increase the monetary base. Another concern is the strength of the JPY after some end of quarter demand works its way though the markets. The Kan government is expected to try to engineer a weaker currency. 

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 20:08
EUR 1.2392 67 JPY 110.62 35 JPY 134.58 108
GBP 1.5076 154 GBP 82.20 -40 CHF 164.74 27
CHF 1.0927 -95 CHF 1.3541 -44 CHF vs.    
JPY 89.27 -20       JPY 81.70 52

The EURUSD is up on the day and the GBPUSD is higher. The EURGBP is down. Traders are maintaining a close watch on the European sovereign debt situation In the GBP the U.K. new government is weak. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.

The EURCHF is weaker. SNB intervention tactics are evolving. Periodically, the SNB has taken a strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The EURCHF made a new record low on Friday.

The USDJPY is steady and the EURJPY cross is stronger. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         20:08
CAD 1.0360 -75 AUD 0.8751 90 Gold 1254 13.04
CNY 6.7921 -85 NZD 0.7140 58 WTI 79.10 2.82

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost on a daily basis. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they  are higher. The Bank of Canada recently raised interest rates by 25bps but the BOC sent dovish signals afterwards. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, RBA monetary policy is now steady. The RBNZ is currently in a tightening mode. Oil and gold are up. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We had been favoring AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally, but some doubts are creeping in as deflationary pressures mount.

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed mostly down. European bourses were lower. U.S. equities are up. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.12%, -1 bps. 

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           20:08
NIK 9737 -191 DAX 6071 -45 DJIA 10150 -16
HSI 20691 -43 FTSE 5046 -54 S&P 1076 2
SSEC 2553 -14 SMI 6275 0 NAS 2224 4
ASX 4413 -67       TSE 11718 38

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Far East markets see no major data on Monday. In Europe , Eurozone money supply data are awaited. In North America, the U.S. releases personal income, spending and the PCE deflator on Monday. In North America, the U.S. releases revisions to 1Q10 GDP (old data) and the University of Michigan survey.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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