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Saturday June 26, 2010 - 00:55:50 GMT
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Rising Stocks, Commodities Trigger Turnaround in Euro

The Euro rallied late in the trading session after an early session setback.  Advances by U.S. stocks and commodities triggered a surge in demand for riskier assets.


The EUR USD started the week strong but overbought conditions and fresh concerns about the European banking system following a downgrade of BNP Paribas by Fitch stopped the rally, triggering a technical closing price reversal top.


Later in the week, fresh economic data showing a slowdown in the U.S. economy and a dovish comment by the Federal Reserve helped stabilize the Euro, forcing it to trade in a range most of the week.


Investors seemed to shed Dollars in favor of the Euro most of the week after the Fed comments and poor U.S. housing data signaled that interest rates would remain low for a long time. Some are beginning to feel that Europe’s move to austerity may actually strengthened the Euro Zone economy before the U.S. gets its economy back on track.


Technically the Euro finished lower for the week but in a position to move either way. The main trend on the daily chart is up, but value is a concern for investors. This means that it may still be vulnerable to a near-term break into a retracement zone at 1.2171 to 1.2102. If appetite for risk continues to increase however, these traders waiting for a cheaper Euro may be left in the dust of the next up leg.


Friday’s rally helped form a new higher main bottom at 1.2209. This could mean the market is set up to move higher. A drive through the last main top at 1.2467 will solidify the uptrend and could trigger a breakout to the upside. The only thing standing in the way of an all out breakout to the upside is a pair of downtrending Gann angles at 1.2522 and 1.2591. Once these angles are cleared, look for the Euro to complete its weekly chart retracement to 1.2609 to 1.2782.


The GBP USD posted a strong gain this week buoyed by the release of the new U.K. budget and signs of a weaker economy in the U.S.


U.K. traders rallied the British Pound after the new government announced its budget plans, complete with calls for higher taxes and severe spending cuts. Traders accepted this news because it represents a better plan than the previous government. Even though some feel the spending cuts will hurt the economy in the short run, the long-term outlook for the U.K. economy looks a lot better.


Technically, the GBP USD is in an uptrend and looking strong after it blew through a key resistance zone this week at 1.4810 to 1.4947. A new main bottom was formed at 1.4686, creating further evidence that the buying was greater than the selling. Despite all of the strong action on the daily chart, the weekly chart is still in a downtrend making this market vulnerable to periodic short-term corrections.


Like the Euro, some investors feel the new budget proposal by the U.K. government has the British economy on track for a faster recovery than the U.S. Additional support for the British Pound this week also came from the news in the Bank of England minutes that one committee member voted for a hike in interest rates. The dovish tone in the Fed announcement suggests that its committee still feels that the U.S. economy is not ready for an interest rate hike. This could help underpin the Sterling over the near-term.



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