Monday June 28, 2010 - 03:50:57 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 28-Jun-2010 - 0349 GMT
Mixed tone in Asia today, with Indices ranging between -0.77% (Australia) to +0.84% (Indonesia). China is up 0.03% while Nikkei is down 0.33%. On Friday, the Dow had managed to close flat at 10143.81, after a week of steep losses following bad economic data.
Despite the G-20 meet over the weekend promising deficit reductions over the next 3 years, the mood is likely to be cautious overall. People will wait for the US NFP at the end of this week, for clues on future growth. Further, with Dollar-Yen (89.40) trading well below 90.00, the overall outlook is not very positive.
The Sensex (17574.53) and Nifty (5269.05) had met Resistances near 18000 and 5350 last week and are likely to dip rather than to overcome the Resistances.
Crude (79.25) ha risen sharply from Friday's low of 75.90 and is now trading above 79. The threat from the hurricane storm which is expected to disrupt the production in the Gulf of Mexico triggered the price rise. Technically the Support at 76, which we have been mentioning for some time has held very well and we might expect further rise towards 80-82 in the coming days.
Gold (1255.80) is keeping up its upside mometum and is now trading in the Resistance region 1250-75. A strong break above 1275 might trigger fresh upmove towards 1300 or even higher in the coming days.
Dollar is trading weak. The Euro (1.2381) is trading higher and might test the significant Resistance at 1.2450-80 region if it continues to trade above 1.2350. Dollar-Yen (89.42) has bounced back sligthly and might test the Resistance at 90 today. 88.70 is a very significant Support level to watch for. Euro-Yen (110.69) is keeping up its overall downtrend intact with strong Resitstance in the broad 112-113 region.
The Pound (1.5048) is trading strong and might see further rise towards 1.5150. Dollar-Swiss (1.0920) is trading in the significant Support at 1.0920-00 region. If this Support region holds we might see a bounce back towards 1.10-11 in the coming days. Aussie (0.8758) though has bounced back from Friday's low of 0.8595, has significant Resistance at 0.8780-0.8800 region which might retain the current downside pressure. A break above 0.88 might take it up towards 0.89.
In Asia, the USD-KRW has come off from Firday's high of 1218 and now trading near 1199.50. USD-SGD is trading near 1.3835. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.28/29 on Friday. 46.15-00 is a very significant Support region to watch for.
The 3M USD LIBOR was down 1 bps points to quote at 0.53%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 3 bps each to quote at 0.65% and 3.10% respectively.
12:30 GMT US May Personal Income
12:30 GMT US May PCE Price Index M/M
US GDP Q1 '10 (Fnl)
...Actual 2.7%...Previous 3.0%
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