European Market Update: European peripherals continue to simmer (Trade the News)
Monday, June 28, 2010
European Market Update: European peripherals continue to simmer
***Economic Data*** - (FI) Finland Jun Business Confidence: 5.0 v 8.0 prior; Consumer Confidence: 18.7 v 15.5e - (FI) Finland May Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 1.8% v 0.2% prior - (SP) Spain Apr Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: 0.2% v 2.4% prior; Mortgages-Capital Loaned Y/Y: -14.5% v -4.0% prior - (SW) Sweden May Trade Balance (SEK): 2.7B v 7.5Be (SW) Sweden May Household Lending Y/Y: 9.1% v 9.2% prior - (TT) Taiwan May Leading Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.4% prior; Coincident Index Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.2% prior - (EU) Euro Zone May M3 Y/Y: -0.2% v 0.3%e; M3 Three-month Avg: -0.2% v 0.0%e - (GE) German Jun CPI - Hesse M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.8% prior - (GE) German Jun CPI - Brandenberg M/M: 0.1% v 0.2% prior, Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.0% prior - (GE) German Jun CPI - North Rhine- Westphalia M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.7% v 1.0% prior - (GE) German Jun CPI - Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.4% prior - (GE) German Jun CPI - Bavaria M/M: 0.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.2% prior
Fixed Income: - (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells total â‚¬7.0B in three and ten year bonds - Sold â‚¬3.5B in 2% Jun 2013 BTPs; avg yield 2.33% v 2.35% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.4x v 1.5x prior - Sold â‚¬3.5B in 4% Sept 2020 BTPs; avg yield 4.09% v 4.07% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.3x v 1.4x prior - (NO) Norway to sell NOK3B in 3.75% 2021 bonds; avg yield 3.58%; bid-to-cover 2.2x
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European stocks opened the session higher, following Friday's losses. Today's gains have been led by BP, miners automakers and most banking shares. However, shares of Standard Chartered are lower following the firm's first half trading update. - As of 5:45 Euro Stoxx 50 Index +1.0% at 2,657; DAX Index +1.0% at 6,132; CAC-40 Index +1.0% at 3,554 and FTSE 100 Index +0.5% at 5,070.
- In Individual Stocks: Zumtobel [ZAG.AS]: Reported FY adjusted EBIT at â‚¬51.5M higher than estimates of â‚¬11M. Revenues were in line with estimates at â‚¬1.1B. Management was unable to estimate if business would begin a sustainable recovery but forecast an improvement in revenues and earnings. || Standard Chartered [STAN.UK]. Shares opened down 1.6% after company guided H1 income flat y/y to $1.8B. Company noted income levels lower in May and June but expected a double-digit growth in H2. || Taylor Wimpey [TW.UK] opened up 1% after trading update where it reiterated that trading was in line with expectations. Guided H1 to complete 4,650 homes v 4,702 y/y. and average selling price at Â£167K v Â£153K y/y. Expected land market to return to normal levels. || British Petroleum [BP.UK]: Provided its GoM update and noted that costs had risen to $2.65B vs $2.35B on June 25. The LMRP cap and Q4000 systems, which are addition to the new system should increase total oil containment capacity to 40,000-50,000 barrels a day but noted that their efficiency and ability to contain or flair oil and gas could not be assured. Shares opened up 1.5% sustained by projections that the Alex storm would not hit the Gulf. || Scott Wilson Group [SWG.UK] Will be acquired by URS corporation for $210p/shr in cash which values the transaction at Â£161M. Transaction is expected to be accretive to URS FY11 earnings.
- Speakers: SNB's Danthine commented in a newspaper interview that deflationary pressures in Switzerland had 'practically disappeared'. He commented that the SNB was not under pressure to reduce its Euro portion of reserves from the past currency interventions. Eventual adjustment of portfolio would be made on circumstances and opportunities and would be coordinated to the demands of monetary policy *** ECB's Tumpel-Guggerell stated that global financial reforms were necessary and global action was needed ***China Vice Premeir Li Keqiang reiterated belief that China's economy still faced 'complicated situation'
- Currencies/Fixed Income: Although ongoing concerns over the global economy underpinned sentiment following the G8 and g20 sentiment ,the major pairs saw little change in listless action. The EUR/CHF cross continued to hit fresh life-time lows. EUR/USD maintained a 50 pip range between 1.2350 to 1.2400 area, while GBP maintained a supportive tone throughout the session on chatter of dividend related flows and tested 1.5070. - European peripherals were a touch wider in the session ahead of the Belgium auction results. The spread between Belgium/ German 10-year Gov't Bonds just under 100bps and wider by almost 5bps from Friday. The spread between Greek/ German 10-year Gov't Bonds just under 800bps; wider by almost 10bps in the session as Greece prepared to issue Bills next month. The IMF meets with Romanian officials this week and market pondering if there are any implications following last week's Romanian Constitutional Court ruling that some of the imposed austerity measures were illegal
- Geo-Political: The UK's Liberal Democrat party was reportedly in discussions with the Labour party on plans to obstruct some items from the proposed government budget. Among the issues raised was the suggested VAT increase to 20% from 17.5%. The Business Secretary Cable has already replied that there was no chance of the proposed VAT measures to be altered. Public support for Liberal Democrats is waning due to government proposal of a planned raise in VAT with recent YouGov polls indicating that nearly 50% of Liberal Democrat voters are considering leaving the party. ***According to the FT, citing head of the Greek debt-management agency Christodoulou, Greece is looking to raise â‚¬4B in July through issuance of 3-, 6-, and 12-month bills. The head of the debt-management agency stated that the big test is how much Athens will have to pay in interest rates in order to attract buyers. According to one banker, if the auction were to go badly for Greece, then it will hit other countries such as Portugal and Spain, which could end up having to use emergency support loans like Greece.*** Following the G20 meeting over the weekend, the final communiqustated that the advanced economies have committed to a 50% fiscal deficit reduction by 2013, and a reduction to the debt-to-GDP ratio by 2016. Serious challenges continue to remain to the global economy with the recovery still uneven and fragile. Overall, growth remains a priority, though there is awareness for the need to reduce the deficit. Following the G20 meeting, the IMF's Strauss-Kahn later said that a 2.5% global growth over a five year period was possible if the G20 members can coordinate policies. He goes on to further state that he does not see the risk of a double-dip in its main scenario, though the topic of a double-dip was not discussed at the meeting. He did mention that he was more optimistic about global cooperation following the G20 meeting.
In The Papers: FT Deutschland reported that the German Bundesbank and financial regulator BaFin are set to meet German banks on Jun 30th to discuss results of stress tests. Article noted that the banks have mostly completed the stress tests, though the results are not yet known and suggested that the Bundesbank might be preparing the lenders for further potential mandatory government aid ***
***Notes/Observations: - G-20 Leaders agree to tackle deficits once economic recoveries are assured - G20 Communiqudropped draft language welcoming Chinese move toward FX flexibility, bowing to Beijing sensitivities not wanting to have its currency singled out - even in a positive light. - Tropical Storm Alex moves across Mexico's Yucatan, Spares BP's Oil Cleanup - Senate Judiciary Committee will begin hearings to examine the nomination of Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court - US Senator Robert Byrd dies (D-West Virginia) - US payroll expected to show mixed picture on the employment front later this week
***Looking Ahead*** - (GE) Germany Jun Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 1.2% prior - (GE) Germany Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.2% prior - 6:15 (SZ) Bank of International Settlements annual general meeting and press conf - 8:30 (US) May Chicago Fed National Activity Index: No est v 0.29 prior - 8:30 (US) May Personal Income: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Personal Spending: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior - 8:30 (US) May PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.2% prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 1.8%e v 2.0% prior - (GE) Germany Jun Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 1.2% prior - (GE) Germany Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.2% prior - 10:00 (GE) German Chancellor Merkel at CDU event - 10:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Construction Costs M/M: 2.0%e v 0.9% prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Global Economic Indicator: No est v 6.9% prior - 10:30 (US) Jun Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: No est v 2.9% prior - 10:30 (IS) Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations is for the Base rate to remain unchanged at 1.50% - 12:45 (US) Fed's Warsh speaks - 13:00 (GE) German Bundesbank member Sarrazin on EU trade issues - 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Shop Center Sales: No est v 34.15 prior
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