Global and U.S.
equity markets were trading better ahead of the New York opening. Investors bought stocks
last night after the G-20 nations pledged to maintain stimulus plans until
their economies fully recovered. The pumping of money into the economy has been
one of the main catalysts throughout this entire 15 month rally.
The September E-mini S&P 500 is resting on a .618
support level at 1072.50 this morning. Building a support base at this level
could trigger the start of a rally back to 1096.00. On Friday this index made a
daily closing price reversal bottom at 1062.75. A follow-through to the upside
will be further evidence of building strength.
Traders will be watching todayâ€™s personal income and
personal spending reports for direction, but the main market mover will be the
Case-Shiller housing report. Last week a pair of bad housing reports as well as
a dovish outlook for the economy by the Fed helped drive stocks lower.
September Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes are sitting on
their lowest yields of the year. Last weekâ€™s dovish comments from the Federal
Open Market Committee encouraged traders to buy Treasury instruments because
the Fed is likely to keep interest rates low for a prolonged period of time.
economic data will encourage investors to take profits at current levels.
The U.S. Dollar traded mixed overnight as traders mulled
over the suggestions of this weekendâ€™s Group of 20 meeting. At the conclusion
of the meeting on Sunday, G-20 members reached an agreement on common goals for
deficit and debt reduction. After the Asian markets opened, traders made a move
toward risk but quickly turned sellers when it became clear that the G-20
decision would have little impact on todayâ€™s trade because of its neutral
Based on the overnight trading action, it looks as if
todayâ€™s markets will largely be determined by U.S. and European economic data.
Last weekâ€™s poor U.S. housing data pressured the
Dollar against the Euro and British Pound as traders looked toward these
currencies for a better return on investment. With the U.S. economy weakening and the Fed
taking a dovish stance on the economy, many traders felt the Fed would keep
interest rates low for a prolonged period of time.
and the U.K.
on the other hand have decided to adapt more austere financial measures to help
cut their deficits. This made their respective currencies more attractive. Or
did it? Some investors feel this week that the Dollar was actually being sold
because of the weakening economy rather than these currencies being bought.
The Commodity Trading Commissionâ€™s Commitment of Traderâ€™s
Report confirmed this conclusion as Net Shorts in the Euro rose to 70,974 on
June 22nd from 62,360 a week earlier.
The U.S. Dollar may gain today if the economic news
continues to surprise to the downside.At some point, safe haven flows will likely resume with the U.S. Dollar
and Yen rallying further if risk demand fades with the weakening global
Todayâ€™s Personal Income and Personal Spending reports will
give traders a clue as to how much consumers are earning and how much they are
spending. The Case-Shiller report will offer investors another look at the U.S.
Housing market. Should these reports come out weaker than expected then look
for traders to seek safety in the Greenback.
At the G-20 summit, world leaders pledged to maintain
stimulus plans until their economic recoveries are solidly in place. Based on
the decision to raise bank capital requirements, it is clear that they will
need to raise significant levels of capital. This could slow down the rate of
economic growth because it will mean capital will have to leave the economy.
Furthermore, the Dollar may gain on the thought that the
austere financial measures taken by Germany
and the U.K.
will actually slow down global economic growth. Some feel that because of the
weak U.S. economy, the Fed
will have to continue to maintain its stimulus while Germany
and the U.K.
will actually be cutting spending. If this becomes the case then it means that Germany and the U.K. will be counting on a weaker
Euro and British Pound to increase demand for exports while their economies use
the weaker currencies to pull out of their economic downturns. Some investors
believe that Germany and Great Britain
may be cutting their deficits too soon.
The key to the Forex markets today and most likely this week
will be U.S.
economic data. Everyday this week, key economic data will be released, ending
with the June Employment number on Friday.
After this weekâ€™s G-20 leaders decided to focus on deficit
and debt reduction, weak economic reports this week may make these countries
change their minds about enacting austere financial measures too soon if U.S.
economic reports indicate a more dovish economy. Countries are walking a fine
line right now as to whether to cut spending or maintain stimulus.
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