***Economic Data*** - (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Construction Costs M/M: 1.8% v 2.0%e - (US) May Chicago Fed National Activity Index: 0.21 v 0.32e - (US) May Personal Income: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Personal Spending: 0.2% v 0.1%e - (US) May PCE Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.1%e; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e - (GE) Germany Jun Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 1.2% prior - (GE) Germany Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.2% prior - (MX) Mexico Apr Global Economic Indicator: 7.2% v 6.9% prior - (US) Jun Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: -4% v 2.9% prior - (IS) Israel Central Bank maintained its Base Rate at 1.50%, as expected
- Stocks are posting some modest gains despite the tepid May consumer spending data and a miss in both the Dallas and Chicago Fed's June national manufacturing indexes. The Dallas reading fell to its lowest level since October of last year, while US households pushed their personal savings rate up to 4% in May. US equity indices opened flat and then headed lower before recovering, but the presence of investor risk aversion remains evident. The US long bond yield fell within 2 basis points of 4% while the 10-year has spent much of the morning south of 3.05%. Front-month crude is around even, at $78, while August gold traded back near all-time highs, around $1,263 before retreating along with other metals.
- US-traded ADRs of BP are up a few percent this morning as Tropical Storm Alex skipped the Gulf of Mexico and headed onshore over the YucatanPeninsula. Forecasters are warning that the storm could re-enter the Gulf, although they note it is unlikely to move through the oil spill zone. BP's CEO is in Russia today to calm fears in the Kremlin regarding the company's operations in the country. Early this morning Deputy Russian PM Sechin told reporters that he believed that Hayward would resign and announce a successor as early as today, though BP was quick to contradict Sechin, noting that Hayward remains CEO for now. In an update on the spill, BP said its costs to date are approximately $2.65B and that it has collected 435K bbls of oil in total so far.
- In other equity news, the WSJ reports that the SEC is investigating KB Home over its joint venture accounting practices for depreciating home and land prices. The article claims the investigation may have implications across the industry. Homebuilder names are headed lower in mid morning trade, although KBH is still around even. Offshore drilling name Noble Corp announced that it would acquire Frontier Drilling for more than $2B, in a deal that would add six drill ships to its inventory. In addition, it signed several drill ship contracts with Shell worth up to $4B. Selected solar names are up strongly after Goldman Sachs analysts raised their 2010 global demand forecast by approx 30%, to 13GW from 8.7GW prior. The firm's top picks include First Solar and JA Solar.
- The Swiss Franc maintained a firm tone into the New York morning as spreads on European peripherals debt widened further. The CHF seemed to benefit from some Eastern European political tension after Romania opposition leader Ponta sought a Government no-confidence motion as the IMF began a review of the next tranche of its package for the country. Pound Sterling remains bid across the board as Cable pushed above 1.51 after BOE's Sentance noted the UK budget has not changed his view that rate hikes are needed and Sterling's current level is below equilibrium.
***Looking Ahead*** - (US) Fed's Warsh speaks - (GE) German Bundesbank member Sarrazin on EU trade issues - (AR) Argentina May Shop Center Sales: No est v 34.15 prior
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
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