Tuesday June 29, 2010 - 03:47:43 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 29-Jun-2010 - 0345 GMT
The US Equities ended marginally lower in a volatile session yesterday. The Dow (10138.52) was flat and the Nasdaq (2220.65) was down 0.13%. The Dow may be ranged between 10000-400 before a fall below 10000 in the coming weeks.
The Asian Equities are mixed today. The Nikkei (9749.76) is up 0.58%, the Shanghai (2513.20) is down 0.87% and the Taiwan Weighted (7497.56) is flat. In India, the Sensex (17774.26) was up 1.14% and the Nifty (5333.50) was up 1.22% yesterday. The Sensex may move in a range of 17800-300 for the next few days/ weeks before breaking on the downside towards 16000.
Crude (78.21) has come off from a high near 79.38 yesterday. Further dip towards 77 is possible as the threat perception from Tropical Storm Alex has weakened. Overall, Crude trades in a rising wedge on the Daily charts, with Support at 77-76 and Resistance at 79-80. In the bigger picture, there is strong Resistance at 80, as can be seen on the Daily chart on the following page:
The Crude/ Gold ratio seems to have moved structurally lower, as can be seen on
Gold (1238.60) has come off a bit from yesterday's high near 1263.70 on profit-taking. There is some Support near 1230, but if that breaks, a sharp fall towards 1175 might unfold. We suspect people may want to buy into a bounce, if a bounce occurs from here.
The Euro (1.2276) has come off from yesterday's high of 1.2397 and is now trading below 1.23. The broader downtrend is intact and might test the crucial Support at 1.2220-00 region today, a break below which might trigger further dip to 1.21. Dollar-Yen (89.09) is retaining the downside pressure and has a greater chance of testing its crucial Resistance-turned-Support at 88.70-60 region. Euro-Yen Cross (109.30) is keeping up the overall downtrend intact and might dip to 108-107 in the coming days.
The Pound (1.5089) is continuing to trade strong above 1.50. But it has a very strong Resistance at 1.5153 which might restrict further rise for some time. Dollar-Swiss (1.0874) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 1.0817 and might expect further rise to 1.0950-1.10 as the Trendline Support on the weekly candles at 1.0810 has held very well during yesterday's sharp fall. Aussie (0.8678) failed once again to see a break above the 55-DMA Resistance (0.8767) and might see further downmove towards 0.8600-0.8550.
In Asia, USD-KRW is trading bear 1208 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3897. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.19/20 yesterday and has opened higher today at 46.3650/3750.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.53%. The 2Y and 10Y were down 3 bps and 10 bps each to quote at 0.62% and 3.00% respectively.
...Actual 5.2%...Previous 5.1%
09:00 GMT EU Biz Climate
13:00 GMT US Case Schiller
...Expected 3.5%...Previous 2.3%
14:00 GMT US Cons Conf
...Expected 62.6...Previous 63.3
US May Personal Income
...Actual 0.4%...Previous 0.4%
US May PCE Price Index M/M
...Actual 0.2%...Previous 0.0%
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