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Tuesday June 29, 2010 - 09:59:33 GMT
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European Market Update: Focus on maturity of ECB 1-year repo operation on July 1st (Trade the News)

Tuesday, June 29, 2010 5:46:03 AM

 European Market Update: Focus on maturity of ECB 1-year repo operation on July 1st


***Economic Data***
- (SZ) Swiss May UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.737 v 1.728 prior
- (FR) France Jun Consumer Confidence: -39 v -39e
- (HU) Hungary May Unemployment Rate: 11.4% v 11.6%e
- (SP) Spain Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4%e
- (SP) Spain May Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.8% v -2.3% prior; Adj Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.9% v -1.4%e
- (SP) Spain Apr Total Housing Permits M/M: -14.3% v 26.6% prior; Y/Y: -15.3% v -7.6% prior
- (SW) Sweden May Retail Sales M/M: 1.6% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 0.3%e
- (NO) Norway May Credit Indicator Y/Y: % v 4.0%e
- (EU) Euro Area Jun PMI: 49.7 v 47.4 prior; sixth monthly reading below the 50 level
- (UK) May Net Consumer Credit: £0.3B v £0.1Be; Net Lending: £1.2B v £0.8Be
- (UK) May Mortgage Approvals: 49.8K v 51.0Ke

- (UK) May Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.0%v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.8% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Business Climate: 0.37 v 0.32e; Consumer Confidence: -17 v -17e; Industrial Confidence: -6 v -6e; Economic Confidence: 98.7 v 98.1e; Services Confidence: 4 v 3e
- (IC) Iceland Jun CPI M/M: -0.3% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.7% v 7.5% prior
- (PO) Portugal Jun Consumer Confidence; -40.1 v -38.3 prior; Economic Climate: 0.1 v 0.0 prior
- (BE) Belgium Jun CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.3% prior

Fixed Income Results:
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sold
HUF45B in 3-month Bills; avg yield 5.31% v 5.28% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.9x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency Bill Auction results:
- Sold €565M in 3-month certificates; avg yield 0.378% v 0.286% prior; Bid-to-cover 3.0x v 6.1 prior
- Sold €1.9B in 6-month Treasury Certificates; avg yield 0.49% v 0.208% prior; Bid-to-cover 1.5x v 2.1 prior

- Equities: As of 5:45 Euro Stoxx 50 Index -2.7% at 2,597; DAX Index -2.2% at 6,021; CAC-40 Index -2.6% at 3,483 and FTSE 100 Index -2.0% at 4,971.

***Top Press Headlines***
- (SP) Spain banks calling ECB to help ease withdrawal of €442B 1% fixed-rate funding program - FT
- (SP) Troubled savings banks in Spain, may be allowed to be privatized under legal changes proposed by the Spanish Saving Banks Association (CECA) - ABC Newspaper
- (UK) The new Basel capital rules could require UK banks to increase capital levels by up to £130B - London Telegraph
- (UK) London Telegraph said AstraZeneca, BAE Systems and Balfour Beatty could be acquisition targets for "cash rich" companies in the US.

- In Individual Stocks
- Chinese solar cell companies are being hurt by the depreciation in the euro as 80% of
China solar cell exports are sent to Europe. The volatility in the markets is impacting negatively these companies. Such names include JASO, SPWRA, ESLR.
- According to a NY post article citing an internal investigation from NY Fed, Wall Street's exposure to BP is not as bad as feared. Meanwhile, CEO Hayward is still in
Russia and is in talks with Lukoil for possible joint projects
- Statoil shut Troll A platform following a gas leak in rise area. Cannot say yet when production will return to normal. The company also reduced production at Troll B and Troll C.
- Salamander plugged and abandoned the Tom Su Lua exploration well as a dry hole.

- Galenica reports Phase II results for PA21 and will initiate Phase III trial in collaboration with Fresenius Medical Care
- It was reported that German cabinet backed legislation to cut healthcase drug spending by €1.7B

- Siemens during its Capital Markets Day saw new Q3 orders and sales at main 3 units higher y/y and q/q. Q3 growth in new orders and revenues would exceed the prior-year figures. Noted that energy market was reaching its lowe point and expected volumes to return to record level of 2008 in mid-term. The main drive for results would be recovery in short-cycle business and demand from emerging countries.
- It was reported that Google's licence would not be renewed in
China and it would end redirect of in the coming days. A foreign Ministry spokesman later stated that foreign internet companies should comply with law.

- Emerson Electric raised its terms of cash offer to 375p/shr vs 275p/shr prior. In April, Chloride had rejected prior offer. In June, ABB had made an offer at 325p/shr

Consumer discretionary
- URS responded to CH2M Hill to acquire Scott Wilson Group and said it was considering raising its offer to 245p/shr vs 210p/shr prior. CH2M HIll made an offer to acquire Scott Wilson at 245p/shr.

Consumer staples
- National Express noted that trading was in line with expectations. Expected H1 pre-tax profit to show good progress over 2009. Also entered a £500M credit facility.

- Speakers: ECB's Noyer commented that countries needed to stop building up debt and stressed that the issue could be a concern if nothing was done . He noted that it might take
5-10 year range of budget tightening to emerge from crisis and one of the main obstacle to growth was fear of increasing taxes. Consumer confidence needs to be rebuilt. He noted that French banks had no issues repaying 1-year LTMO but other EMU banks might suffer ***Arab Monetary Fund Chief commented that the European debt crisis would not impact the euro as a reserve currency. The quick action by European officials has built up confidence in the region. The USD strength was not due to US economic outlook but rather due to weak European outlook. He did not see any big effect in Gulf region from European crisis and reiterated the view that current oil prices was satisfactory for both consumers and producers *** India Trade Body stated that June India gold imports might decline by 75% y/y, July imports may decline by 50% y/y due to higher prices. In 2010, gold imports may decline by 40% y/y, from 343 tons 2009***Russia Central Banker: Ulyukayev commented that a strong Ruble currency appreciation would not be good for Russian economic recovery. Russian interest rates are likely to be on hold at this time but could return to rate moves if the inflation or economic outlook changed. ***IMF commented about
Austria and noted that Austrian banks were subject to significant fx risk from unhedged borrowers. It added that Austria's debt and deficit levels were not sustainable and need to be made lower *** Japan Pension Fund Chief comment: Not necessary to alter 2/3 of fund's allocation target for yen bonds; investment preference are safe assets

- Currencies/Fixed Income: A broad rise in risk aversion was highlighted by the lower government bond yields and a firmer USD and JPY currency. Dealers cited that European banks might be facing a liquidity squeeze ahead of the maturity when more than €440B of funds expire in the ECB's first 12 months tender on July 1st, that would not be replaced. The US Conference Board corrected its China April Leading indicator to a lower reading (to 0.3 from 1.7 initial reading) citing a calculation error. The
US 2-year tested below 0.60% while the 10-year yield fell below 2.98%. European peripherals maintain their stress as various Credit Default Swaps again widened in the session. The Spain 5-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) widened over 10bps above 275bps (record high). EUR/USD elected stops below the 1.2200 level while EUR/JPY cross dipped below the 108 handle for fresh 9 lows (refer to "In the Paper" section below for insight). EUR/CHF continued to hit fresh life-time lows testing 1.3250 in the absence of SNB action. Cable had been resilient most of the morning with dealers citing last week UK austerity budget as a factor but was re-testing the 1.5000 level ahead of the NY morning.

- Geo-Political: As expected, in response to parliamentary debates over labor and pension reform, two of
Greece's largest unions, General Confederation of Greek Workers (GSEE) and Civil Servants' Confederation (ADEDY), held 24-hour strike as planned. In addition, the communist backed trade union PAME also held a 24-hour strike. ***Addressing the UK manufacturing sector, UK Business Secretary Cable warned support by the government will be more selective, specifically stating that automakers may not continue receiving direct support. Note this is in contrast to the prior government, when Labour offered direct assistance to the auto industry due to the dire affects of the economic crisis.

- In The Papers: Nikkei News article noted that Japanese exporters might at some point begin to sell off their EUR holdings against JPY on waning expectations of a rebound in Euro. Feature notes companies have expected EUR exchange rate in JPY120-125 range, so large sales of EUR would likely result in lower earnings. *** An Financial Times article noted that Spanish banks were calling on the ECB to help ease withdrawal of €442B in 1% fixed-rate funding program. The article noted that EU banks, and in particular those in
Spain, continued to struggle obtaining funding in commercial markets. ***

***Looking Ahead***
- Pricing expected for the UK syndicate deal for 30-year Gilts; Guidance seen approx +2bps above the 4.25% 2039 Gilt
- (RU) Russia Q1 Current Account: No est v $16.3B prior
- (BR) Brazil May Central Gov't Budget (BRL): No est v 16.6B prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV inflation IGP M/M: 0.8%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 4.2% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada May Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Raw material Price Index M/M: -1.0%e v 1.7% prior
- 9:00 (US) Apr S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 Y/Y: 3.4%e v 2.3% prior; HPI: 144.3e v 143.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun Consumer Confidence: 62.9e v 63.3 prior
- 10:00 (UK) BOE Fisher
- 12:00 (US) Treasury Economist Krueger speech
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 11.7% prior; Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 12.6% prior


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