The U.S. Dollar is trading sharply higher against most major currencies as
investors shed risk, encouraged by the news that Chinaâ€™s Leading Economic Index
missed pre-report guesses, signaling that growth in the country is not likely
Besides the shedding of higher risk assets, investors are pressuring the
Euro because of European bank funding issues and stress test results.
Technically the Euro turned the main trend down on the daily chart when it
pierced the former main bottom at 1.2209. A 50% level at 1.2171 limited losses
and triggered some light short-covering. This area is not likely to hold
because of the record number of shorts in the market. Expectations are for the
EUR USD to feel more pressure down to 1.2102.
The projected slowdown in China
comes at a time when Germany
is calling for cost cutting and austere financial measures. These measures by
themselves are expected to slow down the Euro Zone economy so expect the
economic issues in this area to be magnified.
Some say that a cheaper Euro is good because it will eventually allow the
Euro Zone to â€śexportâ€ť its way out of its economic down turn. This theory will
only work if there is demand from the rest of the world. A slowdown in demand
from China or the U.S.
will mean the Euro Zone recovery will take longer or the Euro will have to get
cheaper and extremely attractive.
The falling equity markets and a bleak outlook for global economic growth
are helping to drive down the USD JPY. Traders are dumping higher yielding
currencies in favor of the lower-yielding Japanese Yen. In addition, investors
are shedding risky stocks and paying back money borrowed from Japanese banks.
The overnight weakness has the Dollar/Yen in a position to break through the
last main bottom at 88.14. This move could trigger an acceleration to the
downside and is likely to take place in the event of a stock market crash.
Fundamentally the USD CHF is under pressure because of the strong outlook
for the Swiss economy. Apparently new data is showing that the strong Swiss
Franc has had a limited negative effect on the Swiss economy. This means the
Swiss National Bank is unlikely to continue to intervene on its currencies
behalf. Traders bought the Franc on the news.
Technically, the USD CHF is in a downtrend but oversold. In addition, it is
also finding support at a 50% price level at 1.0804. Watch for a possible
technical bounce off this level, but the trend is not likely to change to up
unless 1.1137 is violated. A failure to hold 1.0804 should fuel downside
momentum to 1.0592.
The news about China
is having a negative influence on the AUD USD. Calls for a slow down in the
growth of Chinaâ€™s
economy are likely to hurt Australian exports. This is triggering a sharp
Based on the short-term range of .8081 to .8858, expectations are for this
market to continue to weaken into a retracement zone at .8469 to .8378.
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