Falling Treasury yields are boosting both September Treasury
Bonds and Treasury Notes overnight as fear that the global economic recovery
could be dead is driving investors to seek shelter in so-called safer assets.
Many veteran investors have always said â€śif you want to know
the direction of the economy then watch the Treasury yieldsâ€ť.Based on the current price action and backed
by last weekâ€™s dovish statement from the Federal Open Market Committeeâ€™s investors
are increasing demand for the lower-yielding Treasuries, indicating that the U.S. economic
recovery may be slowing.
Investors have also chosen to ignore the pledges by the G-20
nations over the week-end to maintain stimulus plans until their economies have
fully recovered. The pumping of money into the economy has been one of the main
catalysts behind this entire 15 month rally. Although during the G-20 photo-op
the leaders seemed happy, behind the scenes one has to question how Obama is
going to get away with spending the U.S.
out of a possible double-dip recession and increasing the budget deficit while
countries such as the U.K.
and German adapt more austere financial measures. At some point there is going
to be a major conflict triggered by clashing economic theories.
The Obama administration has adopted the Keynesian approach
to solving the economic down turn. This theory calls for more and more
government spending. This government spending is supposed to stimulate demand
from consumers which is expected to trigger job growth. The government expects
to get some of its money back in the form of taxes. The question is â€śwhat if
consumers stop spending, or businesses stop hiring?â€ť
On Monday, it was reported that consumers spent less in the
first quarter than previously estimated. Today, the Conference Board is
expected to show a drop in consumer confidence. Fridayâ€™s U.S. Jobs Data Report
is expected to show its first decline since December. Both of these reports
reflect a changing attitude for consumers and businesses. Consumers seem to be
gearing toward saving cash and using credit less frequently while businesses
seem to be responding to this shift in consumer attitude by cutting costs and
Last weekâ€™s drop in home sales sent equity prices plunging
and Treasury yields rising. Today, the release of the Case-Shiller 20 city
Index may have the same effect on the market should this index meet pre-market
expectations. This report is expected to show that property values in April
climbed 3.4 percent from the same month in 2009. The problem with this report
is the lag between what it is based on and current market conditions. Since the
tabulation of this report, perspective homeowners have lost their incentive to
buy because of the expiration of the homeownersâ€™ tax credit program.
Stock investors have to ask themselves â€śwho is going to buy
a house now with the economy weakening and jobs being threatenedâ€ť?
All of this news is adding up to the call for a sharply
lower opening in U.S.
equity markets this morning. Besides the outlook for a weaker U.S. economy, global investors reacted to
reports that growth in China
is slowing. The Leading Economic Index for China rose 0.3% in April.This was less than the 1.7% reported June 15th.
Coupled with the fear that Chinaâ€™s
growth is not likely to accelerate and should grow moderately at best, are
early trader reaction to the call for a decline in U.S. jobs, and speculation
regarding the results of the European bank stress tests. The combination of all
of these factors has created fear and this fear is expected to pressure
equities while driving up Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium Mon 23 Apr 2018 A All Day- Flash PMIs AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 Apr 2018 AA 01:30 AU- CPI A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- CB Confidence A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales Wed 25 Apr 2018 AA 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 Apr 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- ECB Decision A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 27 Apr 2018 AA 03:00 JP- Bank of Japan A 08:00 DE- Employment A 08:30 GB- GDP A 14:00 US- University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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