The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2150
level and was capped around the $1.2290 level. Dealers pared exposure to higher-yielding
currencies in reaction to renewed European sovereign credit woes and an outlook
for weaker economic growth in the U.S. and China.More economists and market-watchers are starting
to suggest the U.S. economy could be headed into a ‚Äúdouble dip‚ÄĚ recession while
others suggest the U.S. economy may simply be moderating to annualized growth of
1.5% or less.Dealers are also reducing
exposure to some U.S. assets as tropical storm Alex develops in the Gulf of
Mexico.The European Central Bank stoked
concerns today when it announced the amount it has expended in purchasing
covered bonds exceeds the initial ‚ā¨60 billion cap it implemented twelve months
ago.Also, the ECB failed to drain all
of the liquidity in one of its regular operations to neutralize the impact of
its EMU-16 government bond purchases. The ECB sought to absorb ‚ā¨55 billion but only
absorbed ‚ā¨31.9 billion.ECB member
Nowotny reported the low level of eurozone inflation has given the ECB ‚Äúroom
for maneuver,‚ÄĚ a possible indication the central bank may expand its
bond-buying program.Traders reported
Eurosystem central banks increased their purchases of Greek, Irish, and
Portuguese securities today.There is
also pessimism ahead of 1 July as banks have to repay ‚ā¨442 billion, the ECB‚Äôs
first twelve-month loan.Spanish finance
minister Salgado said she hopes the ‚ÄúECB is conscious of the needs of our
financial system.‚ÄĚA draft European
Union document notes stress tests on European banks need to incorporate
sovereign debt risks.Data released in
the eurozone today saw the EMU-16 June business climate indicator remain steady
at 0.37 while June industrial confidence and June consumer confidence were also
unchanged.June economic confidence and
services confidence ticked marginally higher.Also, French June consumer confidence ticked lower to -39.In
U.S. news, data released today saw CaseShiller home prices up 0.44% m/m, up
from a downwardly revised -0.15% March print.House prices were up 3.81% y/y.The big story in the U.S. today, however, was a report that June
consumer confidence declined significantly to 52.9 from a downwardly revised
62.7 in May.Major data will be released
on Friday when June non-farm payrolls data are released.Forecasts suggest total non-farm payrolls
will be off 115,000 with private payrolls up 111,000.The Fed today sold US$ 2.12 billion in term
deposits in its second test auction to drain liquidity from the banking
system.Traders are closely monitoring
developments in Congress where legislators are voting on an overhaul in
financial services regulations.Euro
offers are cited around the US$ 1.2570 level.
The yen appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested bids around the ¬•88.50 level and was capped around
the ¬•89.40 level. Traders drove the yen
higher across the board as risk aversion increased significantly on account of
worsening global uncertainty involving the U.S, Europe, and China.Japan‚Äôs Cabinet announced it will appoint
Yoshihisa Morimoto, former Vice President of Tokyo Electric Power Co, to become
a Bank of Japan Policy Board member.The
Ministry of Finance reported fiscal year 2009 bond sales will likely aggregate ¬•52
trillion.BoJ will release its quarterly
Tankan survey this week and it is expected to evidence an improvement in
corporate sentiment at large manufacturers to around -3, the highest level
since September 2008.Similarly, capex
data are also expected to improve.The
Japanese economy would significantly benefit from stronger business spending
because the yen remains strong and is keeping a lid on foreign trade and
private final demand remains weak and is contributing to deflationary
pressures.Data released in Japan
overnight saw May overall household spending decline 0.7% y/y while the May
jobless rate ticked higher to 5.2%.Also, May industrial production fell 0.1% m/m and was lower at +20.2%
y/y.Finally, June small business confidence
improved to 47.4.Data to be released
tonight include June PMI manufacturing, May labour cash earnings, May housing
starts, and May construction orders.The
Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.27% to close at ¬•9,570.67.U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¬•86.29
moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the
¬•107.80 level and was capped around the ¬•109.85 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ¬•132.95 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-√†-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¬•81.25 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7977 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7959. There is market chatter that June PMI data to
be released tomorrow will be on the weak side and this had led to lower demand
for higher-yielding currencies.Yuan
forwards came off the most in three weeks as dealers reacted to news that the
U.S. Conference Board revised its April survey number. The revised total
represents the least improvement since November instead of registering the
largest gain in fourteen months.Twelve-month
non-deliverable yuan forwards were off 0.2% to CNY 6.6905.Traders are awaiting more details as to when
China may effect the revaluation of the yuan following last week‚Äôs announcement
that it will drop its peg to the U.S. dollar.PBoC adviser Li Daokui reported reduced inflation expectations have
lessened the urgency of additional rate hikes.Chinese CPI printed at 3.1% in May, above the central bank‚Äôs target.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5010 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5120 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw May net
consumer credit print at ¬£300 million while May net lending secured on
dwellings expanded to ¬£1.2 billion. May mortgage approvals remained steady at
49,800 while the May M4 money supply was steady at 0.0% m/m and 2.8% y/y.Data to be released overnight include June
GfK consumer confidence, June Nationwide house prices, and Q1 total business investment.Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member
Fisher reported ‚Äúwe need to be sensitive to the risk of tightening policy
prematurely‚Ä¶should it appear likely that inflationary pressure is sustained at
a higher level into the medium term, then it is clear what our mandate would
require us to do.‚ÄĚBoE MPC member Sentance
this month voted for the BoE‚Äôs first rate hike in nearly two years earlier this
month.Cable bids are cited around the
US$ 1.4620 level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8090 level and was capped around the ¬£0.8135
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0825 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0900 figure. Data released in Switzerland today saw the May
UBS consumption indicator improve to 1.737 from the downwardly-revised 1.728 in
April.Data to be released tomorrow
include the June KOF Swiss leading indicator.Swiss National Bank member Danthine this week reported deflationary
pressures have ‚Äúpractically disappeared.‚ÄĚDanthine added ‚ÄúIf the need (to raise interest rates) was felt, the SNB
would be able to react very quickly. But currently, we can work without having
to hurry.‚ÄĚSwiss National Bank is
expected to intervene considerably less in the coming months after amassing a
very large portfolio of euro reserves to prevent the franc from appreciating
too much.U.S. dollar offers are cited
around the CHF 1.1470 level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3235 level
while the British pound moved lower
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6310 level.
Forex Trading News
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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