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Tuesday June 29, 2010 - 20:11:53 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Nervous Trade

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis 


Nervous Trade

20:00 GMT- June 29  (global-view.com)  Tuesday has been an unsettling session for trading as nerves were frayed by a downward revision to a new  leading economic indicator index from China and worries about the European banking system. The two saw equities decline sharply in Asia and Europe. The key focus of Forex trading was on the Thursday expiry of European Central Bank one-year EUR 442bn funding operations. The emergency one-year funding is to be replaced by three month operations and this upcoming change has caused considerable consternation in for European banks, especially in Spain. European bank stress tests are also awaited. Some have been very critical of the banking system in Europe for not taking the massive write-downs that U.S. and U.K. banks took a couple of years ago. Bottom-line, the focus at the moment is a flight to safety. The U.S. 10-yr broke through the 3.00% barrier, equities are weaker and the USD is mostly higher.  

We expect the focus of trade this week to soon turn to the U.S. employment situation. The USD was already marked down late last week in anticipation of a decline non-farm payrolls on Friday ahead of the long weekend in the U.S. The June U.S. jobs data are expected to see the temporary surge in jobs due to census hiring to reverse out, and employment is expected to decline. The markets will also be sensitive to the ADP data on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims data on Thursday. We have been noting no improvement in weekly jobless claims data since the end of last year.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 10:59
EUR 1.2200 -73 JPY 108.32 -137 JPY 133.48 -153
GBP 1.5033 -72 GBP 81.15 -10 CHF 163.53 -62
CHF 1.0878 11 CHF 1.3271 -66 CHF vs.    
JPY 88.79 -59       JPY 81.62 -63

The EURUSD is lower on the day and the GBPUSD is down. EURGBP is lower. Traders are maintaining a close watch on the European sovereign debt situation In the GBP the U.K. new government is weak. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.

The EURCHF is sharply lower. SNB intervention tactics are confusing. Periodically, the SNB has taken a strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The EURCHF made a new record low on Tuesday.

The USDJPY is down and the EURJPY cross is sharply lower. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         10:59
CAD 1.0468 115 AUD 0.8570 -149 Gold 1235 -3.35
CNY 6.7985 15 NZD 0.6959 -129 WTI 76.94 -1.21

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost on a daily basis. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they  are weaker. The Bank of Canada recently raised interest rates by 25bps but the BOC sent dovish signals afterwards. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, RBA monetary policy is now steady. The RBNZ is currently in a tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We had been favoring AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally, but some doubts are creeping in as deflationary pressures mount.

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed down. European bourses were weaker. U.S. equities are down. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.97%, -5 bps. 

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           10:59
NIK 9571 -123 DAX 6015 -120 DJIA 10139 -18
HSI 20249 -478 FTSE 4968 -104 S&P 1075 -2
SSEC 2427 -108 SMI 6226 0 NAS 2221 -5
ASX 4346 -39       TSE 11607 -27

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Far East markets will see Japanese PMI data. In Europe , U.K. Current Account and GDP data are due. Eurozone flash HICP is slated along with the Swiss KOF indicator. In North America, U.S. mortgage statistics and ADP private jobs data are due. The day will also see the Chicago PMI and weekly energy statistics.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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