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Tuesday June 29, 2010 - 20:20:24 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

Morning Report Wednesday 30 June 2010

News and views

The risk aversion prevailing since 21 June accelerated during a vicious day of selling in global equity markets, affecting the other asset classes. China's 4.3% fall in the Shanghai composite index was cited as a catalyst for the acceleration phase, the Eurostoxx 50 closing 4.2% down, and the S&P500 currently 3.0% lower. The latter index is at a critical technical level (around 1040) which has provided support four times this year. The VIX barometer of risk aversion gapped 5pts higher to 34. US consumer confidence data was much weaker than consensus, adding to the negative sentiment. Commodities are 2.8% lower, oil -3.0% and copper -4.8%. US 10yr treasury yields fell 6bp, breaking below a critical technical support area, 3.00-3.05, to 2.96, while the 2yr note fell 3bp to a record 0.59 low, all pointing to lower yields ahead.

Safe haven currencies USD, JPY, and CHF outperformed, while the commodity currencies fared worst. The US dollar index rose around 0.5%. USD/JPY slipped from around 88.80 to 88.29, closing in on critical 88.00 support. EUR fell from the 1.240 Sydney closing level to 1.2152. The ECB's weekly 7-day refinancing saw a surge in demand for cash, and the market will nervously eye the outcome of tonight's 3mth auction which comes a day ahead of the expiration of the 12mth facility.

AUD slid further from 0.8640 to 0.8497, following global risk sentiment and China's fortunes.

NZD fell from 0.7015 to 0.6910. AUD/NZD broke below 1.2300 to the 1.2260 current low.

US consumer confidence collapsed to 52.9 in June from 62.7 in May, breaking a run of three consecutive increases. Equity market weakness and concerns over the labour market appear to be beginning to weigh on the US consumer. This said, the decline must be taken on context from the starting point, which was the highest level in just over two years. Within this report, however, labour market components, in particular, were weak with the differential between people finding work easy to obtain and people finding it hard to get declining to -40.5 from -39.3. A gauge of expectations for the next six months dropped to 71.2 from 84.6.

US S&P/CaseShiller house price index rose more than expected in the year to April registering growth of 3.8%. The number was likely boosted by the forthcoming expiry of the homebuyer tax credit which saw a pick up in activity. While there has been a decent upward trend back into positive territory for US house prices, the coming months will provide a much clearer picture to what extent the housing market has been artificially supported by US stimulus measures.

Japanese data:  Industrial production fell 0.1% in May. That was close to expectations. IP is now up a remarkable 34.3% from the trough.  Household spending declined by 0.7% over the year to May. In the month, household spending rose by 0.7% after a 6.3% decline in April. Unemployment rate at 5.2% in May (sa). This is a slight increase on the April outcome of 5.1% and is also above the market forecast for May of 5.0%.

Eurozone EC confidence surveys in June were broadly improved from the previous month. Consumer and industrial confidence surveys were both unchanged at -17 and -6 respectively while services (+4 from +3) and economic confidence (98.7 fro 98.4) managed small gains. The business climate indicator was also unchanged at 0.37.

The flattening out of UK mortgage approvals continued in May with no change from 49.8k. This was slightly below market consensus of 51.0k. Approvals remain well below the historic average and around half the level of the peak in 2007 reflecting the very cautious and benign recovery currently underway. Net consumer credit for May was up GBP0.3bn while the annual growth rate for M4 money supply was confirmed at 2.8%.

Canada raw materials price index fell 7.2% in May, the first drop in five months and the largest fall since December 2008. The fall was led by a 12.7% decline in mineral fuel prices, in particular crude oil which was down 14.2%.

Outlook

AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: The global backdrop is negative for commodity currencies for today's sessions. AUD has decent support around 0.8500 and resistance at 0.8600, any break lower pointing to 0.8300. NZD has support at 0.6900 and resistance at 0.7000. The multi-week outlook for both currencies is negative.

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

 

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