Wednesday June 30, 2010 - 03:50:10 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 30-Jun-2010 - 0345 GMT
Heavy fall in the US Equities after the US Consumer confidence numbers came in lower than expected yesterday. The Dow (9870.30) was down 2.65% and the S&P 500 (1041.24) was down 3.10% to close at its lowest since Oct-09. The Dow has some support near 9500.
All Asians are in the Red today. The Nikkei (9366.54, down 2.13%) does not have any immediate Support and the Shanghai (2399.35, down 1.14%) may fall further towards 2250-25. In India, the Sensex (17534.09) closed down 1.35% and the Nifty (5256.15) closed down 1.45% yesterday. The Markets look weak and may fall further towards 17000 in the coming days.
Crude (75.50) fell sharply from yesterday's high of 78.32 breaking below the Support at 76. The weak US economic data, stronger dollar and the easing threat of the storm 'Alex' pulled down the price. While below 76, there are good chances of further fall to 74-72 in the coming days. The US Crude inventory data is due today which if comes good might give little Support for a bounce back.
Gold (1241.30) is continuing to trade higher in a range of 1227-1265 over the last two weeks within the broader uptrend. Strong Support is seen at 1230-20 region and a strong break below it might trigger a dip towards 1200-1175. On the upside Resistance is seen at 1260-70 region. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
"Risk Aversion" coming back into the market on concerns about the economic recovery and the Euro zone's debt crisis. The Dollar and Yen are trading strong.
Euro (1.2211) is continuing to trade lower and is keeping up the broader downtrend intact. With Support-turned-Resistance at 1.2250, we might see further dip towards 1.2130-00 today. Dollar-Yen (88.54) is trading in its very crucial Support region (88.70-50) and while this Support holds we might see a bounce back to 89.00-50. Euro-Yen Cross (108.11) is retaining is downside momentum. With Resistance at 109.50-110, we might expect further dip to 107 today.
The Pound (1.5060) is looking mixed although it is cotinuing to trade above 1.50 as it has a very significant Resistance at 1.5150. Dollar-Swiss (1.0820) failed to see a strong break above 1.09 yesterday and is continuing to trade weak. However, the Support at 1.08 is still holding. Aussie (0.8507) is retaining its downside pressure. With Support-turned-Resistance 0.86, there are good chances of further fall to 0.8400-8350.
Asian currencies are trading weak. The Korean-Won is trading near 1228 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.4015. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.4850/4950 yesterday and has opened higher at 46.68/69 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.53%. The 2Y and 10Y were down 3 bps and 7 bps each to quote at 0.59% and 2.93% respectively.
08:30 GMT UK GDP Q1 '10 (Fnl)
...Expected 0.3%...Previous 0.3%
12:15 GMT US ADP Emp
...Expected 58K...Previous 55K
12:30 GMT CA GDP
...Expected 0.2%...Previous 0.6%
...Actual 5.2%...Previous 5.1%
EU Biz Climate
...Actual 98.1...Previous 98.4
US Case Schiller
...Actual 3.8%...Previous 2.3%
US Cons Conf
...Actual 52.9...Previous 62.7 a
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