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Wednesday June 30, 2010 - 09:58:58 GMT
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European Market Update: Risk appetite finds comfort following ECB 3-month LTRO operation (Trade the News)

Wednesday, June 30, 2010 5:53:58 AM

 European Market Update: Risk appetite finds comfort following ECB 3-month LTRO operation


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russian Central Bank (CBR) Leaves Refi rate unchanged at 7.75%; In line with expectations
- (FI) Finland Apr Final Trade Balance: €270M v €355M prior
- (UK) Jun Nationwide House Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 8.7% v 9.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Current Account: €344M v €212Me
- (HU) Hungary Producer Prices M/M: 3.8% v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: 5.5% v 3.0%e
- (TU) Turkey May Trade Balance (TRY): -4.8VB v -5.7Be
- (TU) Turkey Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: 11.7% v 11.5%e;
GDP WDA Y/Y: % v 4.0% prior
- (SW) Sweden Apr Non-Manuel Wages Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.4% prior
- (DE) Denmark Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.4%e
- (IT) Italy Jun Business Confidence: 96.1 v 96.1e
- (TH) Thailand May Current Account: $1.0B v $1.4Be; Overall Trade Balance: -$1.0 v $3.7B prior; Total Trade Balance: $2.3B v -$190M prior
- (TH) Thailand May Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 17.2% v 23.9%e; Total Capacity Utilization: 67.3% v 62.9% prior
- (TH) Thailand May Business Sentiment: 49.9 v 46.0 prior
- (GE) Germany Jun Unemployment Change: -21K v -30K; Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.7%e
- (CZ) Czech May Money Supply Y/Y: % v 5.2% prior
- (IT) Italy May PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.6%e
- (NO) Norway May Retail Sales Volume M/M: -0.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -3.0% v -2.5%e
- (UK) Q1 Final Total Business Investment Q/Q: 7.8% v 6.0%e; Y/Y: -7.7% v -11.0%e
- (HK) Hong Kong May M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.4% v 12.8% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong May Gov't Monthly Budget (HKD): -9.3B v -0.2B prior
- (GR) Greece Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.4% v 14.9% prior
- (SP) Spain Apr Current Account: -€5.2B v -€4.3B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun CPI Estimate: 1.4% v 1.5%e
- (IC) Iceland May Final Trade Balance (ISK): 16.6B v 16.8B prior
- (IT) Italy Jun Preliminary CPI (NIC incl Tobacco) M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4%e
- (IT) Italy Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5%e
- (SZ) Swiss Jun KOF Leading Indicator: 2.25 v 2.16e

Fixed Income:
- (GE) Germany Sells €4.94B in Jun 2012 Schatz; avg yield 0.53% v 0.47% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 2.4x prior
- ECB allots €131.9B in 3-month LTRO at fixed 1.0%; rec'd 191 bids

***Top Press Headlines***
- ECB allots €131.9B in 3-month LTRO at fixed 1.0%; rec'd 191 bids
- A FT Alphaville report commented on today's ECB 3-month LTRO operation; In terms of estimates for how much of the 1-yr LTRO will roll into the 3-month operation, the consensus was about €220B, or half of the 12-month LTRO liquidity; a bad level would have been more than €300B and good result was seen at less than €150B or less than €250B.
- London Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Prichard says global bond markets are warning of a sharp global economic slowdown and possibly a double dip recession; Notes the levels of Treasury yields are inconsistent with assumptions on Wall Street for 3% growth in H2.
- (UK) There are concerns that the UK housing market may be slowing - London Telegraph; According to Ernst & Young Item Club, the housing market is not looking good as indicators for housing prices are showing mixed signs, which suggests that we may be at a turning point.
- According to an Ipsos survey, about 51% of German voters would prefer to return to the deutschmark - press

Equities: European equities opened the session slightly higher following yesterday's losses and markets extended gains following the results of the ECBs 3-month LTRO operation.
As of 5:45 Euro Stoxx 50 Index +0.9% at 2,578; DAX Index +0.4% at 5,974; CAC-40 Index +0.5% at 3,450 and FTSE 100 Index +0.7% at 4,950

- Telefonica confirms increasing its offer for PT's stake in Vivo by 11% to €7.2B from €6.5B.

NBG rallied after a press report, released during yesterday's US session, indicated that Qatar was discussing taking a 5-7% stake in NBG for about €250M. Bank denied it but the shares are still moving higher.

- AstraZeneca [AZN.UK]: CRESTOR patent was upheld by
US Court.

Consumer discretionary
UK takeove panel stated that URS Corporation breached part of the takeover code when it said that it was considering increasing its offer to 245p/shr. According to code, an offeror must not make a statement to the effect that it may improve its offer * without committing itself to doing so and specifying the improvement. URS has until July 2nd to comply
- Barry Callebaut reported 9-month Rev CHF3.9B v CHF3.8Be; confirmed 3-yr financial targets
- HMV reported FY10 pretax profit £74.2M v £63M y/y, Rev £2.0B v £2.0Be

- Aker Solutions was awarded four-year contract valued at apprx NOK1.1B p.a.
- Kazakhmys CEO expected copper prices to decline due to China's economic slow down

- There was market chatter circulating that Exxon was to bid £4.50 for each BP's share. Yesterday there was a JP Morgan research note in which the analyst imagined a scenario where Exxon would take over BP.

- Speakers:
- BOE Posen: UK is in a tentatively recovery state but still faces risk of recession and deflation
- Australia Treasurer Swan: No timeline on concluding mining tax discussions; Tax negotiations to continue for the rest of the week; Will not reveal details of talks on mining tax
- ECB funding to Greek banks at €89.4B at end May versus €49.7B from end 2009 - Greece Central Bank
- China PBoC issues 2010 Financial Stability Report: Reiterates that China faces 'complicated situation'
-Bank of Spain reiterates view that interest rates are appropriate

- Currencies/Fixed Income: The Euro spiked higher to test 1.2275 following the lower take in the ECB three-month tender operation.

- Geo-Political: Unions in
Spain entered into the last day of a three-day protest against wage cuts *** UK Treasury assessments noted that the impact from the emergency budget may result in an estimated loss of 1.3 million jobs over next five years. *** Ipsos Poll: approximately 51% of German voters would prefer to return to the deutschemark.

China growth fears and nervousness over European bank funding ahead of Thursday's 12-month ECB LTRO expiry.
- Risk appetite rises following ECB 3-month LTRO operation.

***Looking Ahead***
- (RU) Russia Q1 Current Account: $ v $30.0Be
- (PO) Portugal May Industrial Production M/M: % v -4.4% prior; Y/Y: % v 1.1% prior
- (PO) Portugal May Retail Sales M/M: % v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: % v 0.8% prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 25th: No est v -5.9% prior
- 7:30 (IN) India Q1 Current Account: -$5.8Be v -$12.0B prior
- 8:00 (US) Fed's Evans speaks
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Central Bank Interest rate Decision: expected to maintain the Base Rate tat the current 3.50% level
- 8:00 (SA) South Africa May Trade Balance (ZAR): -2.5Be v -1.9B prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Q1 Current Account: -€1.2Be v -€2.7B prior
- 8:15 (US) Jun ADP Employment Change: 60Ke v 55k prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Apr Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.2%e v 0.6% prior
- 8:30 (SA) South Africa May Budget (ZAR): -14.6Be v -25.1B prior
- 9:00 (US) Fed's Duke speaks
- 9:00 (CL) Chile May Unemployment Rate: 8.8%e v 8.6% prior
- 9:00 (CL) Chile May Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.7%e v -1.3% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 3.1%e v -4.8% prior
- 9:00 (CL) Chile May Copper Production: No est v 455K prior
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium May Budget balance YTD: No est v -€8.4B
- 9:30 (BR) Brazil May Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -3.8Be v 5.3B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 7.0Be v 19.8B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: No est v 41.6% prior
- 9:45 (US) Jun Chicago Purchasing Manager: 59.0e v 59.7 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun NAPM-Milwaukee: No est v 65.0 prior
- 10:30 (EU) ECB Trichet and Bank of Itlay's Draghi
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia May Unemployment Rate: 12.2%e v 12.4% prior
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart
- 15:00 (MX) Mexico May Budget balance YTD: No est v 8.5B prior



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