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Wednesday June 30, 2010 - 15:47:09 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Wednesday, June 30, 2010 11:12:10 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -3 S&P +1.4 NASDAQ +6.7


***Economic data***
- (PO) Portugal May Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v -4.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 0.6% prior
- (PO) Portugal May Retail Sales M/M: -0.8% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v -0.1% prior
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 25th: +8.8% v -5.9% prior
- (PD) Poland Central Bank maintained the Base Rate at 3.50%; As expected
- (IN) India Q1 Current Account: -$13.0B v -$5.8Be
- (SA) South Africa May Trade Balance (ZAR): -0.3BB v -2.5Be
- (SA) South Africa May Budget (ZAR): -20.9B-14.6Be
- (US) Jun ADP Employment Change: 13K v 60Ke
- (CA) Canada Apr Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e
- (US) ISM New York Jun Current Business Index: 69.3 v 89.9 prior
- (CL) Chile May Unemployment Rate: 8.8% v 8.8%e
- (CL) Chile May Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.7%e; Industrial Sales 0.5% v Y/Y: 3.1%e
- (CL) Chile May Copper Production: 430.7K tons v 455K tons prior
- (US) Jun Chicago Purchasing Manager: 59.1 v 59.0e
- (US) Jun
NAPM-Milwaukee: 59.0 v 65.0 prior
- (US) DOE Crudes Inventories: Crude: -2M v -1Me; Gasoline: +540K v -500KKe; Distillate: +2.5M v +1.1Me; Utilization: 88.4% v 89.8%e

- Markets are trading sideways in the US in the wake of the very weak June ADP jobs report this morning. With the Challenger job report tomorrow and June payrolls data on Friday, anxiety is running high over the state of the
US recovery. Fed Governor Evan's told CNBC this morning that he expects employment to continue to struggle, although he does not believe the economic recovery is faltering. In the background, Realtytrac published a report showing that in Q1 homes in foreclosure made up 31% of all residential homes in the US (although this is -14% q/q and -33% y/y). In a speech, the Fed's Duke warned that it may take years for pre-recession lending levels to be restored, although she insisted that the banking sector continues to recover slowly. Treasury yields are consolidating yesterday's move below some key levels. The 2-year yield remains just a few basis points from all time lows while the long bond has drifted below 3.95%.

- In equity news, General Mills met expectations in its Q4 earnings report and offered an in-line forecast for 2011 yesterday after the close. Monsanto's revenue performance in its Q3 report was disappointing, although earnings were a bit above par. Shares of both GIS and MON are down 4%. Shares of lighting fixture maker Acuity Brands are down more than 10% after the firm missed targets in its Q3 report. In M&A, biotech name Celgene said it would acquire Abraxis BioScience for $58/shr in cash and 0.2617 in stock. The deal gives Celgene, which makes the blood cancer drugs Thalomid and Revlimid, a new plank in its expanding oncology portfolio plus an expected $1 billion a year in added revenue by 2015. Systems engineering firm
Argon ST is being acquired by Boeing for $34.50/shr in cash, in a deal valued at $775M. Boeing sees no real impact on earnings from the deal.

- The greenback continues to paint a mixed picture during the
New York session, while the euro has recovered modestly following lower-than-expected demand for ECB funding complemented by firmer equity prices. EUR/USD is stalled around the 1.23 handle as dealers prepare for the next ECB refi operation on Thursday and the Spanish bond auction on July 1st, both of which will help market participants further gauge European peripheral stress. The loonie was broadly softer following the flat monthly Canada GDP reading, which was below the 0.2% consensus, helping USD/CAD probe the 1.06 neighborhood.

***Looking Ahead***
-
10:30 (EU) ECB Trichet and Bank of Italy's Draghi
- (BE) Belgium May Budget Balance YTD: € v -€8.4B prior
- (RU) Russia Q1 Current Account: $ v $30.0Be
-
12:00 (CO) Colombia May Unemployment Rate: 12.2%e v 12.4% prior
-
13:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart
-
15:00 (MX) Mexico May Budget balance YTD: No est v 8.5B prior

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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