***Economic data*** - (PO) Portugal May Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v -4.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 0.6% prior - (PO) Portugal May Retail Sales M/M: -0.8% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v -0.1% prior - (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 25th: +8.8% v -5.9% prior - (PD) Poland Central Bank maintained the Base Rate at 3.50%; As expected - (IN) India Q1 Current Account: -$13.0B v -$5.8Be - (SA) South Africa May Trade Balance (ZAR): -0.3BB v -2.5Be - (SA) South Africa May Budget (ZAR): -20.9B-14.6Be - (US) Jun ADP Employment Change: 13K v 60Ke - (CA) Canada Apr Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e - (US) ISM New York Jun Current Business Index: 69.3 v 89.9 prior - (CL) Chile May Unemployment Rate: 8.8% v 8.8%e - (CL) Chile May Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.7%e; Industrial Sales 0.5% v Y/Y: 3.1%e - (CL) Chile May Copper Production: 430.7K tons v 455K tons prior - (US) Jun Chicago Purchasing Manager: 59.1 v 59.0e - (US) Jun NAPM-Milwaukee: 59.0 v 65.0 prior - (US) DOE Crudes Inventories: Crude: -2M v -1Me; Gasoline: +540K v -500KKe; Distillate: +2.5M v +1.1Me; Utilization: 88.4% v 89.8%e
- Markets are trading sideways in the US in the wake of the very weak June ADP jobs report this morning. With the Challenger job report tomorrow and June payrolls data on Friday, anxiety is running high over the state of the US recovery. Fed Governor Evan's told CNBC this morning that he expects employment to continue to struggle, although he does not believe the economic recovery is faltering. In the background, Realtytrac published a report showing that in Q1 homes in foreclosure made up 31% of all residential homes in the US (although this is -14% q/q and -33% y/y). In a speech, the Fed's Duke warned that it may take years for pre-recession lending levels to be restored, although she insisted that the banking sector continues to recover slowly. Treasury yields are consolidating yesterday's move below some key levels. The 2-year yield remains just a few basis points from all time lows while the long bond has drifted below 3.95%.
- In equity news, General Mills met expectations in its Q4 earnings report and offered an in-line forecast for 2011 yesterday after the close. Monsanto's revenue performance in its Q3 report was disappointing, although earnings were a bit above par. Shares of both GIS and MON are down 4%.Shares of lighting fixture maker Acuity Brands are down more than 10% after the firm missed targets in its Q3 report. In M&A, biotech name Celgene said it would acquire Abraxis BioScience for $58/shr in cash and 0.2617 in stock. The deal gives Celgene, which makes the blood cancer drugs Thalomid and Revlimid, a new plank in its expanding oncology portfolio plus an expected $1 billion a year in added revenue by 2015. Systems engineering firm Argon ST is being acquired by Boeing for $34.50/shr in cash, in a deal valued at $775M. Boeing sees no real impact on earnings from the deal.
- The greenback continues to paint a mixed picture during the New York session, while the euro has recovered modestly following lower-than-expected demand for ECB funding complemented by firmer equity prices. EUR/USD is stalled around the 1.23 handle as dealers prepare for the next ECB refi operation on Thursday and the Spanish bond auction on July 1st, both of which will help market participants further gauge European peripheral stress. The loonie was broadly softer following the flat monthly Canada GDP reading, which was below the 0.2% consensus, helping USD/CAD probe the 1.06 neighborhood.
***Looking Ahead*** - (EU) ECB Trichet and Bank of Italy's Draghi - (BE) Belgium May Budget Balance YTD: â‚¬ v -â‚¬8.4B prior - (RU) Russia Q1 Current Account: $ v $30.0Be - (CO) Colombia May Unemployment Rate: 12.2%e v 12.4% prior - (US) Fed's Lockhart - (MX) Mexico May Budget balance YTD: No est v 8.5B prior
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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