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Wednesday June 30, 2010 - 20:23:33 GMT -

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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- ECB Policy in Play


The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis 

ECB Policy in Play

20:00 GMT- June 30  (  Wednesday was another difficult session for Forex trading as financial markets waited to see how much of the one year emergency EUR 442bln funding facility would be rolled over for three months. Those banks opting to pay for the three month roll-over from the ECB were borrowing at a premium over market rates for liquidity. The ECB allocated only EUR132 bln at its three month financing operation, suggesting that financing needs were not as large as suspected from banks unable to secure credit from traditional sources. The ECB offered a shorter three month extension because would like to gradually retreat from this facility. The second part of the picture will be more evident on  Thursday when the ECB will offer a six-day repo. The removal of this excess liquidity is seen as a modest policy tightening.

We expect the focus of trade now to turn to the U.S. employment situation. The ADP private employment estimate was a weaker than expected gain of 13,000. Keep in mind that the ADP data are often not reliable. USD had been marked down late last week in anticipation of a decline non-farm payrolls on Friday ahead of the long weekend in the U.S. The June U.S. jobs data are expected to see the temporary surge in jobs due to census hiring to reverse out, and employment is expected to decline. We have been noting no improvement in weekly jobless claims data since the end of last year.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads


Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 20:12
EUR 1.2226 28 JPY 108.10 8 JPY 132.11 -140
GBP 1.4941 -134 GBP 81.83 91 CHF 161.09 -199
CHF 1.0782 -36 CHF 1.3182 -14 CHF vs.    
JPY 88.42 -14       JPY 82.01 14

The EURUSD is higher on the day and the GBPUSD is down. EURGBP is up. Traders are maintaining a close watch on the European sovereign debt situation In the GBP the U.K. new government is weak. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.

The EURCHF is stronger. SNB intervention tactics are confusing. Periodically, the SNB has taken a strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The EURCHF made a new record low on Tuesday.

The USDJPY is steady and the EURJPY cross is higher. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies

Click on Chart to Enlarge


Commodity         20:12
CAD 1.0641 113 AUD 0.8415 -107 Gold 1242 1.30
CNY 6.7825 -162 NZD 0.6856 -73 WTI 75.38 -0.13

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost on a daily basis. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they  are higher. The Bank of Canada recently raised interest rates by 25bps but the BOC sent dovish signals afterwards. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, RBA monetary policy is now steady. The RBNZ is currently in a tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We had been favoring AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally, but some doubts are creeping in as deflationary pressures mount.

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed down. European bourses were mixed. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.97%, +2 bps. 

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 



Equities           20:12
NIK 9383 -188 DAX 5966 13 DJIA 9771 -108
HSI 20129 -120 FTSE 4917 3 S&P 1030 -13
SSEC 2398 -29 SMI 6128 0 NAS 2110 -35
ASX 4302 -44       TSE 11296 -51


UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Far East markets will see the Japanese 2Q10 quarterly Tankan Survey and Australian Retail Sales data. In Europe, Swiss, U.K. and Eurozone manufacturing PMI data are due. In North America, U.S. weekly jobless claims. U.S. manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending and pending homes sales are scheduled. The day will also see weekly natural gas statistics. Canada is closed for a holiday.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.

John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Prior to, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 19 Mar 2018
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
Thu 22 Mar 2018
AA All Day flash PMIs
AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Mar 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,
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