Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (30 June 2010)
The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2305
level and was supported around the $1.2165 level. The common currency moved higher after it was
reported the European Central Bank would lend banks less than some dealers
estimated, suggesting funding strains in the eurozone may not be as severe as
expected.The ECB reported it will lend ‚ā¨131.9
billion to eurozone banks in a three-month tender whereas some expected the ECB
would lend as much as ‚ā¨300 billion.Banks
are due tomorrow to repay ‚ā¨442 billion under the ECB‚Äôs Long-Term Refinancing
Operation, one of its major facilities to counter the financial crisis. Traders pushed the euro lower, however, after
Moody‚Äôs Investors Service reported it is placing Spain‚Äôs Aaa local and foreign
currency government bond ratings on review for a possible downgrade. Data
released in the eurozone today saw the EMU-16 June consumer price inflation
estimate print at 1.4%, down from the prior reading of +1.6% and below
estimates.Data to be released tomorrow
include EMU-16 PMI manufacturing.Data
released in Germany today saw June unemployment decline 21,000 with the
unemployment rate remaining steady at 7.7%.May retail sales data will be released tomorrow.ECB President Trichet reported the ECB‚Äôs
covered bond-buying program has ended and said there‚Äôs less demand for ECB
liquidity than expected.German banks
have agreed to stress tests as soon as they can be examined. ECB member Mersch said he expects the eurozone‚Äôs
economic recovery to be ‚Äúuneven.‚ÄĚIn U.S. news, data released today saw
MBA mortgage applications reverse course and climb 8.8% while the June Chicago PMI
survey slumped to 59.1 from the previous reading of 59.7.The big news today was the June ADP
employment number.It fell to +13,000
from an upwardly-revised reading of +57,000 in May and these indicate lower-than-expected
private jobs creation.These data are
being closely scrutinized ahead of Friday‚Äôs release of June non-farm payrolls
data.Total payrolls are expected to
have decreased 125,000 while private payrolls are expected to have climbed
110,000.Traders will closely scrutinize
any revisions to previous month‚Äôs data.Chicago
Fed President Evana said the European crisis is a ‚Äúheadwind‚ÄĚ for the U.S.
economt and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart warned the U.S. economic recovery is
‚Äúnot yet sustainable.‚ÄĚFed Governor Duke
reported a return to pre-crisis lending levels may require years.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ¬•88.75 level and was supported around
the ¬•88.40 level. National Strategy
Minister Arai reported ‚ÄúStamping out deflation is our top policy priority‚ÄĚ and
added the yen‚Äôs strength ‚Äúmay be temporary.‚ÄĚEarlier this month, Prime Minister Kan called on Bank of Japan to
exercise its ‚Äúutmost efforts‚ÄĚ to beat deflation.Data released in Japan overnight saw June
small business confidence improve to 47.4 from the prior reading of 46.7.Also, June manufacturing PMI moved lower to
53.9 from the prior reading of 54.7 while May labour cash earnings were off
0.2% y/y, down from the upwardly revised print of +1.6% y/y.Additionally, May housing starts were off
4.6% y/y to 737,000 units and May construction orders were off 9.2% y/y.The big story in Japan tonight will be the
release of the Bank of Japan‚Äôs Q1 Tankan survey of corporate sentiment.Sentiment among large manufacturers is
expected to have improved to -4 from the prior reading of -14 while capex is
expected to have climbed 5.0%.Other
data to be released tonight include the June monetary base.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.96% to
close at ¬•9,382.64.U.S. dollar bids are
cited around the ¬•86.29 level.The euro
moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ¬•109.10 level and was supported around the ¬•107.65 level.The
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested offers
around the ¬•132.60 level while the Swiss
franc moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•82.15 level.
In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7818 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7977. There is market chatter that June PMI data to
be released tonight will be on the weak side.People‚Äôs Bank of China reported it will it will strengthen banks‚Äô
capital requirements and said China needs to hasten economic
restructuring.Yuan forwards came off
the most in three weeks yesterday as dealers reacted to news that the U.S.
Conference Board revised its April survey number.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.4980 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5075 level.Cable extended yesterday‚Äôs losses as traders
reduced exposure to sterling ahead of the quarter-end.Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee
member Posen said the MPC will work to keep inflation in check but conceded he
is a little more ‚Äúhumble‚ÄĚ about the BoE‚Äôs bond-buying capabilities than other
policymakers.Posen added he believes
the central bank‚Äôs easing programs can keep the economy out of a
recession.Data released in the U.K.
today saw June Nationwide house prices climbed 0.1% m/m and 8.7% y/y while Q1 total
business investment was up 7.8% q/q and off 7.7% y/y.June PMI manufacturing data will be released
tomorrow.Cable bids are cited around
the US$ 1.4620 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the
British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ¬£0.8185 level and
was supported around the ¬£0.8085 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0790 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0855 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw the
June KOF Swiss leading indicator improve to 2.25 from the prior reading of
2.16.June PMI manufacturing data will
be released tomorrow.Swiss National
Bank member Danthine this week reported deflationary pressures have
added ‚ÄúIf the need (to raise interest rates) was felt, the SNB would be able to
react very quickly. But currently, we can work without having to hurry.‚ÄĚSwiss National Bank is expected to intervene
considerably less in the coming months after amassing a very large portfolio of
euro reserves to prevent the franc from appreciating too much.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.1470 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3285 level while the British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids
around the CHF 1.6195 level.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.