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Wednesday June 30, 2010 - 22:12:21 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (30 June 2010)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2305 level and was supported around the $1.2165 level.  The common currency moved higher after it was reported the European Central Bank would lend banks less than some dealers estimated, suggesting funding strains in the eurozone may not be as severe as expected.  The ECB reported it will lend €131.9 billion to eurozone banks in a three-month tender whereas some expected the ECB would lend as much as €300 billion.  Banks are due tomorrow to repay €442 billion under the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operation, one of its major facilities to counter the financial crisis.  Traders pushed the euro lower, however, after Moody’s Investors Service reported it is placing Spain’s Aaa local and foreign currency government bond ratings on review for a possible downgrade. Data released in the eurozone today saw the EMU-16 June consumer price inflation estimate print at 1.4%, down from the prior reading of +1.6% and below estimates.  Data to be released tomorrow include EMU-16 PMI manufacturing.  Data released in Germany today saw June unemployment decline 21,000 with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 7.7%.  May retail sales data will be released tomorrow.  ECB President Trichet reported the ECB’s covered bond-buying program has ended and said there’s less demand for ECB liquidity than expected.  German banks have agreed to stress tests as soon as they can be examined.  ECB member Mersch said he expects the eurozone’s economic recovery to be “uneven.”  In U.S. news, data released today saw MBA mortgage applications reverse course and climb 8.8% while the June Chicago PMI survey slumped to 59.1 from the previous reading of 59.7.  The big news today was the June ADP employment number.  It fell to +13,000 from an upwardly-revised reading of +57,000 in May and these indicate lower-than-expected private jobs creation.  These data are being closely scrutinized ahead of Friday’s release of June non-farm payrolls data.  Total payrolls are expected to have decreased 125,000 while private payrolls are expected to have climbed 110,000.  Traders will closely scrutinize any revisions to previous month’s data.  Chicago Fed President Evana said the European crisis is a “headwind” for the U.S. economt and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart warned the U.S. economic recovery is “not yet sustainable.”  Fed Governor Duke reported a return to pre-crisis lending levels may require years.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2570 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥88.75 level and was supported around the ¥88.40 level.  National Strategy Minister Arai reported “Stamping out deflation is our top policy priority” and added the yen’s strength “may be temporary.”  Earlier this month, Prime Minister Kan called on Bank of Japan to exercise its “utmost efforts” to beat deflation.  Data released in Japan overnight saw June small business confidence improve to 47.4 from the prior reading of 46.7.  Also, June manufacturing PMI moved lower to 53.9 from the prior reading of 54.7 while May labour cash earnings were off 0.2% y/y, down from the upwardly revised print of +1.6% y/y.  Additionally, May housing starts were off 4.6% y/y to 737,000 units and May construction orders were off 9.2% y/y.  The big story in Japan tonight will be the release of the Bank of Japan’s Q1 Tankan survey of corporate sentiment.  Sentiment among large manufacturers is expected to have improved to -4 from the prior reading of -14 while capex is expected to have climbed 5.0%.  Other data to be released tonight include the June monetary base.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.96% to close at ¥9,382.64.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥86.29 level.   The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥109.10 level and was supported around the ¥107.65 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥132.60 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥82.15 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7818 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7977.  There is market chatter that June PMI data to be released tonight will be on the weak side.  People’s Bank of China reported it will it will strengthen banks’ capital requirements and said China needs to hasten economic restructuring.  Yuan forwards came off the most in three weeks yesterday as dealers reacted to news that the U.S. Conference Board revised its April survey number.


The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4980 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5075 level.  Cable extended yesterday’s losses as traders reduced exposure to sterling ahead of the quarter-end.  Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Posen said the MPC will work to keep inflation in check but conceded he is a little more “humble” about the BoE’s bond-buying capabilities than other policymakers.  Posen added he believes the central bank’s easing programs can keep the economy out of a recession.  Data released in the U.K. today saw June Nationwide house prices climbed 0.1% m/m and 8.7% y/y while Q1 total business investment was up 7.8% q/q and off 7.7% y/y.  June PMI manufacturing data will be released tomorrow.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4620 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8185 level and was supported around the £0.8085 level.


The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0790 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0855 level.  Data released in Switzerland today saw the June KOF Swiss leading indicator improve to 2.25 from the prior reading of 2.16.  June PMI manufacturing data will be released tomorrow.  Swiss National Bank member Danthine this week reported deflationary pressures have “practically disappeared.”  Danthine added “If the need (to raise interest rates) was felt, the SNB would be able to react very quickly. But currently, we can work without having to hurry.”  Swiss National Bank is expected to intervene considerably less in the coming months after amassing a very large portfolio of euro reserves to prevent the franc from appreciating too much.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1470 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3285 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6195 level.


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