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Thursday July 1, 2010 - 10:03:50 GMT
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European Market Update: New month starts off with the same old concerns (Trade the News)

Thursday, July 01, 2010 5:50:54 AM

 European Market Update: New month starts off with the same old concerns


***Economic Data***
- (GE) Germany May Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -2.4% v -0.6%e
- (IN) India May Trade Balance: -$11.3 v -$10.4B prior; Exports Y/Y: 35.1% v 36.2% prior; Import Y/Y: 38.5% v 43.3% prior
- (SW) Sweden Jun Swedbank PMI Survey: 62.4 v 64.0e
- (FR) France May Producer Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.5%e
- (IR) Ireland Jul NCB Manufacturing PMI: 51.8 v 54.1 prior
- (TU) Turkey June Manufacturing PMI: 53.2 v 56.5 prior
- (PD) Poland June Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 v 52.2 prior
- (NO) Norway Jun PMI: 51.2 v 50.5e
- (HU) Hungary Jun PMI: 49.5 v 49.6 prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jun 25th: $461.4B v $458.5B prior
- (SP) Spain June Manufacturing PMI: 51.2 v 51.5 prior
- (SW) Sweden Central bank (Riksbank) raised interest rates by 25bps to 0.50%; as expected
- (SZ) Swiss Jun SVME-Purchasing Managers Index: 65.7 v 65.7e
- (CZ) Czech June Manufacturing PMI: 57.6 v 57.6 prior
- (DE) Denmark May Unemployment Rate: 4.1% v 4.1%e
- (DE) Denmark May Retail Sales M/M: 3.7% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v -7.1% prior
- (IT) Jun PMI Manufacturing: 54.3 v 53.8e
- (FR) France Jun Final PMI Manufacturing: 54.8 v 54.9 prior
- (GE) Germany Jun Final PMI Manufacturing: 58.4 v 58.1e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Final PMI Manufacturing: 55.6 v 55.6e
- (UK) BOE Quarterly Credit Conditions survey: Mortgage demand unexpectedly declined in Q3
- (UK) Jun PMI Manufacturing: 57.5 v 57.5e
- (SA) South Africa Jun Kagiso PMI: 48.4 v 52.8e v 51.1 prior
- (DE) Denmark Jun PMI Survey: 49.3 v 48.5 prior
- (RU) Russia Q1 Current Account: $33.3B v $32.2Be

Fixed income Results:
- (SP) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €3.5B in 3% 2015 Bonos; avg yield 3.657% v 3.532% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.7x v 2.4x prior
- (FR) France Debt Agency (ATF) sold total €7.5B in OATs via three trances (2018, 2020, 2026)
- Sold €1.34B in Oct 2018 Oats; avg yield 2.76% v 3.72% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.3x v 1.7x prior
- Sold €2.0B in Apr 2020 Oats avg yield 3.04% v 3.18% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.5x v 1.5x prior
- Sold €4.1 in new Apr 2026 Oats; avg yield 3.54%; Bid-to-cover: 1.5x
- (EU) ECB allots €111.2B in 6-day refi operation at fixed rate 1.0%
- (UK) DMO to sell £800M in 0.75% Index-Linked 2047 Gilts; avg yield 0.666% v 0.826% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.4x v 2.8x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency to sell Bonds

- Sold HUF25B in 2013 Bonds; avg yield 7.15%
- Sold HUF15B in 2016 Bonds; avg yield 7.50%
- Sold HUF5B in Floating rate Notes

- European equities are lower by more than 1% across the board, tracking the earlier declines in the US and Asia. Today's declines have been driven by China's weaker than expected PMI data for June [CHINA JUN PMI MANUFACTURING: 52.1 V 53.2E (4-month low)] and Moody's decision to place Spain's AAA rating on review for a possible downgrade. As of 5:45 Euro Stoxx 50 Index 1.5% at 2,5348; DAX Index 1.0% at 5,904; CAC-40 Index -1.9% at 3,377 and FTSE 100 Index -1.2% at 4,855

***Top Press Headlines****
- (EU) ECB allots €111.2B in 6-day refi operation at fixed rate 1.0%
(- SP) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €3.5B in 3% 2015 Bonos; avg yield 3.657% v 3.532% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.7x v 2.4x prior
- (SW) Sweden Central bank (Riksbank) raised interest rates by 25bps to 0.50%; as expected
- (AU) Australia govt, miners might announce mining tax compromise on Friday - Australia Business Spectator
- (GE) Germany VDMA: May Plant, Equipment orders +61% y/y; highest reading on record
- (GE) German bankers prepare for possibility of emergency capital injections - FT

- Chloride will enter in talks with Emerson after Swiss group ABB decided against pursuing takeover offer. Emerson had raised its offer by 37% from 275p/shr to 275p/shr. ABB had offered 325p/shr.
- John Woods in its trading update noted that overall performance was in line with expectations.
- Alhstrom to increase prices on filtration material globally by up to 10%

Consumer discretionary
- Debenhams reported gross transaction volume +8.9%; like-for-like sales -0.4% over the 42 weeks. Gross margin for the year is expected to exceed previous guidance. Remained positive Q3 performance.
- Greene King reported prelim FY pretax profit £123M v £125Me, Rev £984M v £968Me
- Hornbach Holding reports Q1 Net €37.8M v €37.1M y/y, Rev €779.9M v €774.8M y/y
- CH2M Hill will not proceed with acquisition of Scott Wilson Group. URS has made an offer of 210p/shr but had considered raising it to 245p/shr after CH2M Hill made an offer for the group.

- Barclays entered into JV in Japan with with Sumitomo Mitsui and Nikko Cordial which would provide wealth management services to high net worth individuals in Japan.
Consumer Staples
- Tate & Lyle will sell EU sugar refining operations for £211M in cash Technology
- According to unconfirmed report Gartner lowers outlook for IT spending forecast due to EU sovereign debt concerns

- Speakers:
- BoE Miles: Says there is no need for interest rate hike at this time despite inflation being uncomfortably high
- BOE Quarterly Credit Conditions survey: Mortgage demand unexpectedly declined in Q3
- Japan Senior Fin Min Ikeda: Weak JPY is generally positive; Will try to prevent excessive JPY currency strength
- Germany VDMA: May Plant, Equipment orders +61% y/y; highest reading on record
- German Econ Min Bruederle: Reiterated view that German recovery to continue in 2011; sees encouraging signs in the global economy
- German Bundesbank Zeitler: Spreads show that markets remain fragile
- Sweden Central Bank stated that it Lowered its rate path due to slower economic growth abroad. In the longer term the repo rate will not need to be raised as much as previously announced
-BOJ's Morimoto: JPY appreciation to impact corporate sentiment and profits; concern about European situation is rising. To watch fx movements closely.

- Currencies/Fixed Income: A new month provided the same anxieties despite yesterday's ECB 3-month LTRO operation. The ECB managed to calm nerves but dealers noted it did not change the overall picture and awaited the results of the 6-day refi operation to gain 'better clarity. A weaker than expected China PMI manufacturing provided another flush of risk aversion sentiment and hit Asian equities and commodity prices. The peripherals continued to take center stage following Wednesday Moody's joined S&P and Fitch in downgrading Spain's credit rating. The result of the Spanish 5-year bond auction sold the upper end of its desired amount but a lower bid-to-cover tempered the Euro's upward momentum. The German Yield curve flattened significantly ahead of the 6-day refi operation but retreat from a portion of the move after the ECB allotted €11.2B in the 6-day MRO. EUR/USD hovering below the 1.23 area as the NY morning approached. Dealers noting that EUR buy-stops building above the 1.2350 area. The USD/JPY remained above the pivotal 88.00 level with rumors resurfacing that Kampo was again on the bid down there. The GBP hovered around the 1.49 level and maintained a soft tone attributed to BOE member Miles comments made in late Asia.

- Geo-Political:
- US Trade Representatives confirm the US won WTO case regarding EU subsidies to Airbus.
- The UK trade union National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers (RMT) may call strike action over the recently assessed UK treasury data.
- (GE) London Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard comments on Wednesday's presidential elections in Germany; Noted, after it was reported that Chancellor Merkel's candidate for president, Wulff, lost the first two rounds of voting in the electoral college, equity markets declined, as the development was an effective no confidence ruling in the Christian Democrat-Liberal coalition.

***Looking Ahead***
- 7:30 (US) Jun Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y No est v -65.10% - -
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil May Industrial Production M/M: 1.5%e v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 17.9e v 17.4% prior
- 8:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 455Ke v 457K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.550Me v 4.548M prior
- 9:00 (BR) Brazil Jun PMI Manufacturing: No est v 52.4 prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Trade Balance (FOB) : $2.9Be v $3.4B prior - -
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico May Remittances: $2.0Be v 1.8B prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun ISM Manufacturing: 59.0e v 59.7 prior; Prices paid: 70.0e v 77.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) May Construction Spending M/M: -0.7%e v -2.7% prior
- 10:00 (US) May Pending Home Sales M/M: -14.0%e v 6.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 24.6% prior
- 10:00 (US) Treasury Sec Geithner testifies to Senate Committee on G20 meeting with China
- 10:00 (GE) GermanFin Min Schaeuble speech
- 11:00 (EU) ECB member Stark speech
- 12:00 (IT) Jun New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -13.8% prior
- 14:00 (IT) Italy Jun Budget Balance: No est v -8.1B prior; Budget Balance (Year to date) No est v -50.1B prior



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