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Thursday July 1, 2010 - 22:10:56 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (1 July 2010)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2345 level and was supported around the $1.2195 level.  The common currency rocketed to multi-day highs after Spain successfully sold €3.5 billion in five-year bonds one day after Moody’s Investors Service warned it may cut Spain’s sovereign credit rating.  The European Central Bank announced it is lending €111.2 billion in six-day funding to help banks manage today’s repayment of €442 billion in twelve-month funds – the largest facility ever awarded by the bank and in response to the financial crisis.  Yesterday, banks asked the ECB for a lesser-than-expected €131.9 billion.  Risk aversion remains heightened but dealers suggest the banks that are borrowing from the ECB are not among the eurozone’s largest financial institutions.  Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-16 June PMI manufacturing remain steady at 55.6 while Germany’s manufacturing PMI moved higher to 58.4 and France’s ticked lower to 54.8.  Other data saw German May retail sales climb 0.4% m/m and decline 2.4% y/y while French producer prices were up 0.0% m/m and 4.3% y/y.  ECB member Stark said there is no crisis of confidence in the euro but rather less trust in the finances of some eurozone countries.  Bundesbank member Zeitler said the publication of banks’ stress tests should improve market confidence and cited “enormous” uncertainty in the markets.  In U.S. news, June Challenger job cuts were off 47.1% y/y while weekly initial jobless claims rose +13,000 to 472,000 and continuing jobless claims rose to 4.616 million.  The June ISM manufacturing index came off to a weaker-than-expected 56.2 while the ISM prices paid sub-index was considerably weaker at 57.0.  May construction spending was off 0.2% m/m and May pending home sales fell a whopping 30.0% m/m and 15.6% y/y.  Tomorrow’s data will include the June non-farm payrolls report and non-farm payrolls are expected to have decreased 130,000 with private payrolls up +110,000.  Likewise, the unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 9.8% and May factory orders are expected to have moved lower.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2570 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥87.65 level and was capped around the ¥88.55 level. The pair has not been this weak for seven months and came off in response to weaker-than-expected U.S. data that seem to be portending a moderation in the economic recovery.  Nikkei reported Bank of Japan may lift its 2010 economic growth forecast to around 2.5% from the current forecast of 1.8%.  New BoJ Policy Board member Morimoto reported the economy “is gradually recovering, with the improvement of overseas economies as the starting point.”  The big news in Japan was an improvement in the BoJ’s quarterly Tankan index of large manufacturers’ sentiment to +1 from the prior reading of -14.  The large manufacturing outlook also improved to +3 and the non-manufacturing sentiment index and outlook index also improved.  Additionally, large all industries capex moved higher to +4.4% from the prior reading of -0.4%.  Data to be released tonight include the June monetary base.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.96% to close at ¥9,382.64.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥86.29 level.   The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥107.50 level and was capped around the ¥109.05 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥131.25 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥81.90 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7809 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7818.  As expected, Chinese PMI data came in weaker-than-expected with the June headline PMI manufacturing index lower-than-expected at 52.1 and June HSBC PMI manufacturing lower at 50.4.  People’s Bank of China reiterated China will maintain steady and rapid growth in 2010. 


The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.4995 level and was supported around the US$ 1.4870 level.  Data released in the U.K. today saw June PMI manufacturing decline as expected to 57.5 from the prior reading of 58.0.  June PMI construction data will be released tomorrow.  Bank of England released its quarterly credit conditions survey today and it noted that access to household credit expanded marginally in Q2 but conditions are expected to tighten in Q3.  BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Miles reported the European bank funding situation is “worrisome” and said monetary tightening in the U.K. is not yet the proper policy action.  MPC member Posen yesterday warned of a heightened risk of recession in the U.K.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4620 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8255 level and was supported around the £0.8165 level.



The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0675 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0790 level.  There was speculation today that Swiss National Bank intervened in the market by selling francs for euro as the cross was off by the largest amount in six weeks.  On 17 June, SNB reported the threat of deflation has “largely disappeared,” leading to speculation it would curtail the massive interventions it undertook earlier in the year.  Data released in Switzerland today saw June PMI manufacturing decline to +65.7 from +66.4.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3210 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5945 level.


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