Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (1 July 2010)
The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2345
level and was supported around the $1.2195 level. The common currency rocketed to multi-day
highs after Spain successfully sold ‚ā¨3.5 billion in five-year bonds one day
after Moody‚Äôs Investors Service warned it may cut Spain‚Äôs sovereign credit
rating.The European Central Bank
announced it is lending ‚ā¨111.2 billion in six-day funding to help banks manage
today‚Äôs repayment of ‚ā¨442 billion in twelve-month funds ‚Äď the largest facility
ever awarded by the bank and in response to the financial crisis.Yesterday, banks asked the ECB for a lesser-than-expected
‚ā¨131.9 billion.Risk aversion remains
heightened but dealers suggest the banks that are borrowing from the ECB are
not among the eurozone‚Äôs largest financial institutions.Data released in the eurozone today saw
EMU-16 June PMI manufacturing remain steady at 55.6 while Germany‚Äôs
manufacturing PMI moved higher to 58.4 and France‚Äôs ticked lower to 54.8.Other data saw German May retail sales climb
0.4% m/m and decline 2.4% y/y while French producer prices were up 0.0% m/m and
4.3% y/y.ECB member Stark said there is
no crisis of confidence in the euro but rather less trust in the finances of
some eurozone countries.Bundesbank
member Zeitler said the publication of banks‚Äô stress tests should improve market
confidence and cited ‚Äúenormous‚ÄĚ uncertainty in the markets.In
U.S. news, June Challenger job cuts were off 47.1% y/y while weekly initial
jobless claims rose +13,000 to 472,000 and continuing jobless claims rose to
4.616 million.The June ISM manufacturing
index came off to a weaker-than-expected 56.2 while the ISM prices paid
sub-index was considerably weaker at 57.0.May construction spending was off 0.2% m/m and May pending home sales
fell a whopping 30.0% m/m and 15.6% y/y.Tomorrow‚Äôs data will include the June non-farm payrolls report and
non-farm payrolls are expected to have decreased 130,000 with private payrolls
up +110,000.Likewise, the unemployment
rate is expected to have increased to 9.8% and May factory orders are expected
to have moved lower.Euro offers
are cited around the US$ 1.2570 level.
The yen appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested bids around the ¬•87.65 level and was capped around
the ¬•88.55 level. The pair has not been this weak for seven months and came off
in response to weaker-than-expected U.S. data that seem to be portending a
moderation in the economic recovery.Nikkei
reported Bank of Japan may lift its 2010 economic growth forecast to around
2.5% from the current forecast of 1.8%.New
BoJ Policy Board member Morimoto reported the economy ‚Äúis gradually recovering,
with the improvement of overseas economies as the starting point.‚ÄĚThe big news in Japan was an improvement in
the BoJ‚Äôs quarterly Tankan index of large manufacturers‚Äô sentiment to +1 from
the prior reading of -14.The large
manufacturing outlook also improved to +3 and the non-manufacturing sentiment
index and outlook index also improved.Additionally, large all industries capex moved higher to +4.4% from the
prior reading of -0.4%.Data to be
released tonight include the June monetary base.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.96% to
close at ¬•9,382.64.U.S. dollar bids are
cited around the ¬•86.29 level.The euro
moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the
¬•107.50 level and was capped around the ¬•109.05 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ¬•131.25 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-√†-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¬•81.90 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7809 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7818. As expected, Chinese PMI data came in
weaker-than-expected with the June headline PMI manufacturing index
lower-than-expected at 52.1 and June HSBC PMI manufacturing lower at 50.4.People‚Äôs Bank of China reiterated China will
maintain steady and rapid growth in 2010.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.4995 level and was supported around the US$ 1.4870 level.Data released in the U.K. today saw June PMI
manufacturing decline as expected to 57.5 from the prior reading of 58.0.June PMI construction data will be released
tomorrow.Bank of England released its
quarterly credit conditions survey today and it noted that access to household
credit expanded marginally in Q2 but conditions are expected to tighten in
Q3.BoE Monetary Policy Committee member
Miles reported the European bank funding situation is ‚Äúworrisome‚ÄĚ and said
monetary tightening in the U.K. is not yet the proper policy action.MPC member Posen yesterday warned of a
heightened risk of recession in the U.K.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4620 level.The
euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers
around the ¬£0.8255 level and was supported around the ¬£0.8165 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0675 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0790 level. There was speculation today that Swiss
National Bank intervened in the market by selling francs for euro as the cross
was off by the largest amount in six weeks.On 17 June, SNB reported the threat of deflation has ‚Äúlargely
disappeared,‚ÄĚ leading to speculation it would curtail the massive interventions
it undertook earlier in the year.Data
released in Switzerland today saw June PMI manufacturing decline to +65.7 from
+66.4.U.S. dollar offers are cited
around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3210 level
while the British pound moved lower
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5945 level.
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