Friday July 2, 2010 - 03:55:41 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 02-Jul-2010 - 0353 GMT
The US Equities fell on account of weak economic data yesterday. The Dow (9732.53) was down 0.42% and the S&P 500 (1027.37) was down 0.32%. The Dow may get some immediate Support near 9710-30 today.
The Asian Equities are mixed today. The Nikkei (9235.05, up 0.47%) may dip towards 9000 in the next few days and Shanghai (2366.59) is down 0.30%. In India, the Sensex (17509.33, down 1.08%) closed just above the important Support at 17500 yesterday and the Nifty (5251.40) was down 1.14%. While above 17500, the Sensex may move in the range of 17500-18000, however a break below 17500 may pull towards 17000 in the next few days.
Crude (72.94) fell sharply from the high of 75.40 yesterday. The weak manufacturing data release from US triggered the downmove. With the current downmove looking strong, we might see a test of 70 on the downside in the coming days.
Gold (1203.70) has come off sharply from 1244.80. A strong break below 1200 might see further dip towards 1280-70 in the coming days. The broader picture is bullish and a dip to 1280-70 can be considered as a good opportunity to buy.
Bad US economic data release (manufactuing, home sales and jobless claims) yesterday triggered weakness in dollar all over. The US NFP data release is due today which will be closely watched by the market.
The Euro (1.2519) has risen sharply and is trading higher above 1.25. The 55-DMA Resistance is at 1.2545 and a strong break above it might trigger further upmove towards 1.2650-2700. Dollar-Yen (88.03) has bounced back from its low of 86.96 and has Resistance at 88.35-50. Euro-Yen Cross (110.15) has risen following the rise in Euro and has significant Resistance at 110.50 which is expected to hold.
The Pound (1.5177) is keeping up its upside momentum and might rise further towards 1.5250. Dollar-Swiss (1.0621) is continuing to trade weak and is now trading just above the 200-DMA (1.0618). If this 200-DMA fails to hold we might see further dip towards 1.0500-0450. Aussie (0.8484) has bounced back from the 200-Week-MA (0.8311) and might test the Resistance at 0.8535-50 region today.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1218 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3901. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.58/59 yesterday.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.53%. The 2Y yield and the 10Y yield were up 5 bps and 4 bps to quote at 0.64% and 2.96% respectively.
09:00 GMT EU Unemp
...Expected 10.1%...Previous 10.1%
12:30 GMT May US NFP
...Expected -103K...Previous 431K
JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
...Actual 1...Previous -14
May US Manufacturing ISM
...Actual 56.2...Previous 59.7
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