stocks rallied initially after the release of the U.S. jobs report but this may have
been because traders priced in a worse than expected private-sector hiring
figure. Nonetheless, the private-sector number missed the consensus so this
short-fall is likely to lead to selling pressure at some point during the
Traders still look a little confused as to what to do with
the jobs data. Short-term traders seem to want to rally the market because of
technically oversold conditions. Longer-term traders are looking at the bigger
picture which leans toward a weaker U.S. jobs outlook for the upcoming
Expect volatility today because of the expected clash
between short-term traders and long-term investors. Donâ€™t be surprised by a
strong short-covering rally because of oversold conditions and position
liquidation ahead of the three-day holiday.
Like equity traders, September Treasury Bond and Treasury
Note traders seem to be searching for something concrete from the jobs report
to base their trading decisions. The first reaction was to rally Treasuries
following the release of the bad jobs data, but there hasnâ€™t been much of a
follow-through to the upside following the initial surge. This muted reaction
could be because investors may have already priced in the bad number.
The U.S. Dollar took a hit this morning following the
release of the worse than expected June Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Going into
the report, investors were looking for total jobless claims to fall 130,000.
The actual number was -125,000.
More important to investors however was the number of
private-sector jobs created. Pre-report estimates were for an increase of
115,000 jobs in the private-sector. The government was expected to say it
released about 250.000 temporary Census workers last month. The actual hiring
by the private sector was 83,000 jobs. This number was disappointing to
Todayâ€™s bearish report comes on the heels of a rise in
weekly U.S. Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday along with a fall in home sales
and a weak reading of a key manufacturing index.
Todayâ€™s negative reaction to the Dollar was in contrast to
the recent pattern which showed a tendency toward flight to safety buying by
investors following weaker U.S. economic news. Traders in the past had treated
economic news as a bump in the road to recovery but the recent string of bad
news has led investors to believe that a weaker trend is developing in the
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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