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Friday July 2, 2010 - 21:03:56 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (2 July 2010)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2610 level and was supported around the $1.2480 level.  Traders boosted the common currency to its highest level since 21 May as the U.S. dollar was unable to gain traction from a decrease in the June unemployment rate to 9.5%.  In reality, the decline in the U.S. unemployment rate was likely on account of negative factors.  It was reported that June non-farm payrolls fell 125,000, down from an upwardly-revised 433,000 in May, while June private payrolls expanded to a lesser-than-expected 83,000.  On a negative note, June average hourly earnings  were off 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y and weekly hours worked ticked lower to 34.1  These data are consistent with recent U.S. economic data that evidence a moderating U.S. economy and a sluggish labour market that cannot seem to gain any traction.  Economists are concerned that U.S. states are experiencing budget woes and may need to cut back on the hiring and retention of government workers.  Other data released today saw May factory orders decline 1.4%, reversing course from April’s +1.0% gain.  In eurozone news, dealers are still reacting positively to the successful capital raisings by France and Spain this week.  This week, the European Central Bank announced it is lending €111.2 billion in six-day funding to help banks manage yesterday’s repayment of €442 billion in twelve-month funds – the largest facility ever awarded by the bank and in response to the financial crisis.  Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-16 May producer price inflation climb 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y while the EMU-16 May unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0%.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2720 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥88.20 level and was supported around the ¥87.30 level. Traders reduced long exposure to the yen as the common currency continued its ascent and reached its highest level since 21 May.  The Japanese media continues to report Bank of Japan may lift its 2010 economic growth forecast to around 2.5% from the current forecast of 1.8%.  New BoJ Policy Board member Morimoto this week reported the economy “is gradually recovering, with the improvement of overseas economies as the starting point.”  There is speculation that Japan’s benchmark ten-year Japanese government bond yield may decline below 1.0%.  Data released in Japan overnight saw June monetary base growth tick lower to 3.6% from 3.7% the previous month.  The big news in Japan this week was an improvement in the BoJ’s quarterly Tankan index of large manufacturers’ sentiment to +1 from the prior reading of -14.  The large manufacturing outlook also improved to +3 and the non-manufacturing sentiment index and outlook index also improved.  Additionally, large all industries capex moved higher to +4.4% from the prior reading of -0.4%.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.13% to close at ¥9,203.71.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥86.29 level.   The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥110.70 level and was supported around the ¥109.45 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥133.85 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥81.95 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7716 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7809.   The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported the central bank will not target massive foreign reserves or a long-term payment surplus.  As expected, Chinese PMI data this week came in weaker-than-expected with the June headline PMI manufacturing index lower-than-expected at 52.1 and June HSBC PMI manufacturing lower at 50.4. 


The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5230 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5150 level.  Data released in the U.K. today saw June PMI construction tick lower to 58.4.  It was reported yesterday that June PMI manufacturing declined as expected to 57.5 from the prior reading of 58.0.  Bank of England released its quarterly credit conditions survey yesterday and it noted that access to household credit expanded marginally in Q2 but conditions are expected to tighten in Q3.  BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Miles reported the European bank funding situation is “worrisome” and said monetary tightening in the U.K. is not yet the proper policy action.  MPC member Posen this week warned of a heightened risk of recession in the U.K.  The central bank is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged next week.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4620 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8300 figure and was supported around the £0.8215 level.



The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0695 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0585 level.  Many traders believe Swiss National Bank intervened by selling francs yesterday, noting the recent appreciation of the franc has been much too fast.  On 17 June, SNB reported the threat of deflation has “largely disappeared,” leading to speculation it would curtail the massive interventions it undertook earlier in the year.  Data released in Switzerland this week saw June PMI manufacturing decline to +65.7 from +66.4.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3430 level while the British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6250 level.


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