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Monday July 5, 2010 - 17:07:34 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (5 July 2010)

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2510 level and was capped around the $1.2565 level.  Liquidity was reduced on account of U.S. markets being closed in observance of the U.S. Independence Day holiday.  Traders will pay close attention to tomorrow’s fixed-term deposit operation of the European Central Bank following last week’s operation where it failed to fully sterilize the €55 billion in previously purchased government debt.  The ECB has been purchasing about €4 billion per week of eurozone debt over the past four weeks to help keep a lid on borrowing costs.  Three-month euro Libor reached a nine-month high today of 0.731% while three-month U.S. dollar Libor fell to 0.531%.  The European Central Bank is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged this week when policymakers announce their decision on Thursday.  ECB President Trichet this weekend urged a further consolidation in eurozone fiscal policies to “reinforce confidence.”  ECB member Tumpell-Gugerell reported “We have the right policies in place to ensure the return to the levels of growth we have seen prior to the crisis…The economy is expanding and we see a positive growth outlook.”  Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-16 June PMI services tick higher to 55.5 while the June PMI composite remained steady at 56.0.  Also, July Sentix investor confidence improved to -1.3 from the prior reading of -4.1 and May retail sales improved to 0.2% m/m and 0.3% y/y.  Additionally, German June PMI services ticked higher to 54.8 while French PMI services came off to 60.8.  In U.S. news, data to be released tomorrow include the June ISM non-manufacturing survey.  Traders are still talking about the possibility of a double dip recession in the U.S. economy.  Many dealers believe the Federal Open Market Committee will keep borrowing costs unchanged until 2011.  Friday’s jobs data in the U.S. evidenced job losses and many dealers believe these data are presaging additional economic weakness.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2720 level. 


¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥88.00 figure and was supported around the ¥87.65 level. Bank of Japan official Toyama said the Tokyo interbank offered rate is “substantially” deviating from appropriate levels.  Tibor fell today for a fourth consecutive day to 0.380%, its lowest level since July 2006.  The yen will likely remain strong provided growth estimates for the U.S. and Europe remain muted, absent any intervention from the Japanese government.  The Japanese media continues to report Bank of Japan may lift its 2010 economic growth forecast to around 2.5% from the current forecast of 1.8%.  Dealers are paying close attention to Japanese politics where Prime Minister Kan’s Democratic Party of Japan party could lose its upper-house majority on 11 July.  Kan and the DPJ are seeking to increase taxes.  Data to be released in Japan this week include the May leading index and coincident index tomorrow followed by May machine orders and current account data on Wednesday.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.69% to close at ¥9,266.78. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥86.29 level.   The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥109.70 level and was capped around the ¥110.40 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥133.35 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥82.20 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7758 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7716.  The big news in China was overnight was a slide in the HSBC June services index to 55.6 from 56.4 and these data follow recent weaker data in the manufacturing sector.  Some economists are scaling back their Chinese GDP growth forecasts for the fourth quarter to an annualized 8%.  Notably, the Chinese economy expanded 11.9% y/y in the first three quarters of 2010.  Premier Wen this weekend reported the Chinese government will remain flexible on account of “very complicated” economic situations in China and abroad.  Other data released today saw the revised current account surplus at US$ 53.6 billion in the first quarter, up from the previous US$ 40.9 billion report.  Data to be released in China this week include the Q2 business climate index on Thursday. 



The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.5090 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5200 figure.  Bank of England is expected to keep its headline Bank rate target unchanged this week and keep its asset purchase program unchanged at £200 billion.  It was announced that economic forecaster Martin Weale will join the BoE Monetary Policy Committee as an external member.  Traders will pay very close attention to Thursday’s MPC vote to see if there are additional calls for higher rates.  Data released in the U.K. today saw June PMI services move lower to 54.4 from the prior reading of 55.4.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4620 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8295 level and was supported around the £0.8250 level.


The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0675 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0620 level.  Data released in Switzerland today saw May retail sales growth accelerate to 3.8% y/y from the prior reading of 1.3% y/y.  June consumer price inflation data will be released tomorrow and are expected to print around 0.1% m/m and 0.9% y/y.  Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand said he is “closely monitoring” the franc, adding its fluctuation has “clearly increased.”  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3310 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6050 level.


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