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Tuesday July 6, 2010 - 11:39:39 GMT
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European Morning Update: European bond auctions share in return of risk appetite (Trade the News)

Tuesday, July 06, 2010 5:57:01 AM
 European Morning Update: European bond auctions share in return of risk appetite
 
***Economic Data***
- (SZ) Swiss Jun CPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.9%e
- (SZ) Swiss National Bank (SNB) June Currency Reserves M/M: CHF225.8B v CHF232.4B prior
- (AS) Austria Jun Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.9% prior
- (DE) Denmark May Industrial Production M/M: 4.4% v -0.8% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: 13.4% v -11.2% prior
- (UK) Jun New Car Registration Y/Y: 10.8% v 13.5% prior

Fixed Income:
- (SA) South Africa Bond auction
- Sold ZAR1.3B in R204 bonds; avg yield 8.615%; bid-to-cover ratio 2.22x
- Sold ZAR800M in R209 bonds; avg yield 8.870%; bid-to-cover ratio 2.05x
- (AS) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) Bond auction results; Sold total €1.32B in 5-year and 10-year tranches
- Sold €770M in 3.9% 2020 RAGBs; avg yield 3.008%; bid-to-cover 2.8x
- Sold €550M in 3.5% 2015 RAGBs; avg yield 1.912%; bid-to-cover 3.3x
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency: Sells HUF45B in 3-month Bills; avg yield 5.29% v 5.24% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 3.0x prior
- (UK) DMO sold £3.25B in 3.75% 2020 Gilts; avg yield 3.467%; Bid-to-cover: 2.45x v 1.86 prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM **
- European equities Stoxx Europe 600 Index snaped its longest losing streak in a year as valuation opportunities provided the catalyst for a rally today. As of 5:45 Euro Stoxx 50 Index +2.4% at 2,568 ; DAX Index +1.8% at 5,920; CAC-40 Index 2.5% at 3,416 and FTSE 100 Index 2.0% at 4,919

Consumer Discretionary
- Brown N Group [BWNG.UK]: 18 weeks ended July 3 total group Rev +1.1% y/y, like-for-like sales 0.1%
- Easy Jet [EZJ.UK]: Reports Jun Load factor 87.2% v 86.3% y/y
- Party Gaming [PRTY.UK] Provides update: Q2 Revenue seen 2% lower q/q; Overall trading in-line with the Board's expectations despite the adverse impact of the World Cup being greater than expected on poker.
- Persimmon [PSN.UK]: Reports H1 Rev £785M, up 26% y/y; Sales match forecast since UK budget; Still cautious about investment decisions, until mortgage availability improves further.
- Punch Taverns [PUB.UK] Provides Interim Management Statement; Profits remain under pressure as lower drinks margin coupled with reduced rental income from returned pubs impacts profit.

Industrials
- Balfour Beatty [BBY.UK]: Provides trading update: Results in line with expectations
- Porsche [PAH3.GE] VW considering management reshuffle; VW CEO Winterkorn may install Matthias Muller as Porsche CEO - FT
- TUI AG [TUI1.GE]: Raises forecast for container shipping, citing strengthening in positive trends for transport volumes and freight rates

Financials
- Societe Generale [GLE.FR] Head of investment banking unit Peretie: Not concerned about €8B sales target in normalized market, but Q2 not normalized; Q2 volumes were "soft"

Technology
Nokia [NOK]: Renesas Electronics to acquire Nokia's wireless modem business for apprx $200M

Energy
- Tullow Oil [TLW.UK]: Guides H1 Rev $495M v $438M y/y (increase in revenue is principally due to the increase in realised commodity prices during the year)
- SMA Solar [S92.GE]: Raises forecast for FY10 Rev to €1.5-1.8B (guided €1.1-1.3B on May 14th)
- Abertis [ABE.SP]: Co.'s two largest shareholders studying possible €25B leverage buyout with CVC - FT

- Speakers:
- (FR) France Budget Min Baroin: 2011 deficit target of 6% not negotiable
- (CH) China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): Confident of long-term return on currency reserves; to keep close eye on investments in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
-(FR) France Fin Min Lagarde could lower 2011 growth forecasts next month -Le Figaro
- (KS) South Korea Central Bank: Greek sovereign default not imminent but is inevitable
- (SZ) Swiss National Bank (SNB) June Currency Reserves m/m: CHF225.8B v CHF232.4B prior
- ECB's Noyer: Global imbalances have adjusted in the wake of the crisis, most cyclical; Imbalances continue to remain an issue
- (SP) Fitch: Large Spanish banks look "pretty strong"
- (SP) Spain PM Zapatero: Does not intend to reshuffle cabinet
- OPEC: 2009 Petroleum Export Revenues: $575B, down 43% y/y - Annual Statistical Bulletin

- Currencies/Fixed Income: The pendulum swung back towards risk in the session with speculative money to move back into higher risk strategies resulting in a softer USD and JPY against the major European and commodity pairs. The Shanghai Composite Index rallied from 15-month lows. The RBA left interest rates unchanged but buoyed BRIC related hope when it commented that consumer spending and business investment were set to expand. Softer Swiss CPI data prompted a weak CHF currency in the early part of the European morning and concerns that the SNB might strike back in the EUR/CHF cross. The SNB's June currency reserves confirmed speculation that the central bank has stepped aside for now in seeking to weaken its CHF currency. The Euro just off its best levels ahead of the NY morning. EUR/USD retested its post US payroll highs of 1.2610 before consolidating; EUR/CHF moving towards 1.34 neighborhood and EUR/JPY trying to test the 111 handle. Commodity currencies firmer with AUD/USD approaching 0.85 and USD/CAD hovering around the 1.06 after failing to break above the 1.0670 pivot point over the holiday period. NYMEX Aug crude futures at electronic session highs and approaching the $73/contract (higher by 1%). USD/JPY unable to sustain a break back above the pivotal 88.00/30 level. The NY morning will focus on the ECB 1-week Deposit operation and the results of Spain's 10-year syndicate bond auction.

- Geo-Political: The UK's Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) Chairman Sir Alan Budd announced his intentions to resign. According to media sources, the Treasury Department has no replacement. ***The UK Communications Workers Union has canceled strike ballot following legal challenges from BT Group. ***India's Financial Express reported warnings on "acute" coal shortage across 32 power stations. It portends "massive power cuts" in the country over the next 15 days, and citing Central Electricity Authority, there are 17 thermal power stations have supply for less than 7 days and 15 have supply for only 4 days. ***Swedish Prime Minister Reinfeldt stated he has no plans to raise taxes in 2011 and thinks that money should be spent in the welfare sector. ***According to Ukraine's Deputy Central Bank Governor Pasichnyuk, approximately 61 of Ukraine's banks need about UAH40B ($5.1B) in additional capital this year; UAH30B need to come in cash and UAH10B in reassessment of assets.

***In the papers***
- FT comments on signs of recovery in the Spanish, Greek and Portuguese bond markets; Citing several fund managers expressing interest in Spain sovereign debt, and those who are staying away from Spain/Greece buying into Italian govt debt.
- According to research from CreditSights, Spain banks may be concealing mortgage losses by removing non-performing mortgages from securitized transactions
London Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard address concerns about the EU's bank stress tests; According to RBS and other UK firms, the stress tests may be useless and further hurt confidence if the tests fail to cover the risk of large losses on sovereign defaults by Greece and other Club Med states.
- (FR) France Budget Min Baroin: 2011 deficit target of 6% not negotiable - Les Echos; Reiterates that France's 2011 growth target is 'ambitious'.
- WSJ "Currency Trading" section anticipates more upside on the Euro; Says that the various forces, including easing concerns over the European banking system and sovereign debt issues, will continue to fuel the strength in the euro.

***Notes***
- Risk back on as valuations have become attractive
- Fed's Lacker: Current levels of consumer spending and business investment will be sufficient to sustain US economic recovery
- Fed's Fisher: US economy to grow more slowly in H2 than H1 of 2010; GDP likely to be "closer to low end" of 2-3% range

***Looking Ahead***
- (SP) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) 10-year Bonds via syndicate
- ECB 1-week Term Deposit Tender operation with €59B target (Gov't bond sterilization operation)

- (RU) Russia Jun Official Reserve Assets: $459.0Be v $456.4B prior
- (PO) Portugal May Industrial Sales M/M: No est v -6.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 12.0% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada May Building Permits M/M: -2.0%e v 5.4% prior
- 9:00 (BR) Brazil May CNI Capacity Utilization: No est v 83.0% prior
- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Jun Vehicle Production: No est v 309.6K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 251.1K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 68.2K prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing: 55.0e v 55.4 prior
 

 

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