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Wednesday July 7, 2010 - 11:21:16 GMT
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European Market Update: Bank Stress Test concerns simmers in session; Calls for QE2 to secure global recovery (Trade the News)

Wednesday, July 07, 2010 5:54:13 AM

 European Market Update: Bank Stress Test concerns simmers in session; Calls for QE2 to secure global recovery


***Economic Data***
- (FR) France May Trade Balance: -€5.5B v -€3.9Be
- (HU) Hungary May Preliminary Industrial Output M/M: 5.4% v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 13.7% v 8.2%e
- (CZ) Czech May Trade Balance (CZK): 12.3B v 14.0Be
- (CZ) Czech May Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.0%e
- (RU) Russia Jun Official Reserve Assets: $461.1B v $459.0Be
- (SW) Sweden Jun Budget Balance (SEK): -23.8B v 20.0B prior
- (NO) Norway May Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: -0.8% v -4.6% prior
- (NO) Norway May Industrial Production Manufacturing M/M: -0.9% v 0.2%e v; Y/Y: 2.2% v 3.7%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Final Gross Fixed Capital: -1.2% v -1.1%e; Gov't Expenditures: 0.2% v 0.6% prior; Household Consumption: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (IC) Iceland Jun Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 8.6B v 16.6B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Jun Foreign Currency Reserves: $256.8B v $256.2B prior
- (GR) Greece Jun Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.5%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.4%e
-- (GE) Germany May Factory Orders M/M: -0.5% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 24.8% v 24.9%e

Fixed Income Result:
- (GE) Germany sells €4.02B in 3% Jul 2020 Bunds; avg yield 2.56% v 2.67% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.4x v 1.6x prior
- (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold €762M (above €600M target) in 6-month Bills; avg yield 1.947% v 2.955% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 1.9x prior

- European equities The value buying that took place early Monday seemed to evaporate as trading began on Wednesday in Europe. As of 5:50 Euro Stoxx 50 Index -1.4% at 2,543; DAX Index -1.2% at 5,870; CAC-40 Index -1.5% at 3,371 and FTSE 100 Index -1.2% at 4,904

Consumer Discretionary
- Marks & Spencer [MKS.UK]: Reports 13-week UK LFL sales +3.6% v +2.3%e; Cautious about the outlook for consumer confidence and spending
- Sodexho [SW.FR]: Reports 9-month Rev €11.5B, up 1.3%; Raises FY09/10 rev target to increase apprx 2% v 0.5 - 1% prior; Raises FY09/10 rev target
- Air France [AF.FR]: Reports June passenger traffic +4.7%
- Air Berlin [AB1.GE]: Reports Jun Load Factor 75.1% v 78.8% y/y
- SAS [SAS.SW]: Reports June load factor at 79.7% v 75.6% m/m Industrials
- CRH PLC [CRH]: Provides trading statement: H1 op profit expected to be about half of last year's results (€240M); Expects EBITDA in the seasonally more important second half of the year will be ahead of last year; In Portugal, domestic cement sales to date are lower than last year, while construction activity in Ireland and Spain has continued to run well below 2009 levels.
- Bilfinger Berger [GBF.GE]: Australia's Lend Lease could be a potential bidder for Valemus unit - Sydney Morning Herald
- TNT [TNT.NV]: TNT Express raises rates in Europe by 3.5%

- 3i Group [III.UK]: Provides Interim Management Statement: Says business continues to perform well; Seeing stable to improving earnings performance across the portfolio
- Royal Bank of Scotland [RBS.UK]: Attempting to sell as much as £3B in real estate loans - FT
- Sacyr [SYV.SP]: Goldman sold 4% stake at €4.10/share; Goldman Sachs sold the shares for Mutua Madrilena, which now has a remaining stake of 1%.

- Man AG [MAN.GE]: Awarded 350 truck order; The order includes TGM, TGS and TGX trucks.

- British Petroleum [BP.UK]: Agrees to give 30 days notice to the US Dept of Justice of any major transactions that may affect the future shape of the company -British press
- Phoenix Solar [PS4.GE]: Guides FY10 Rev €660-700M range v €473M y/y
- Total [TOT]: To acquire Canada's UTS Corp for C$3.08/shr; total value of deal at C$1.1B (approximately a 10% premium to closing market cap); UTS Corporation's main asset is a 20% interest in the Fort Hills mining project

- Speakers:
- China's SAFE said the U.S. Treasury market will remain key for China, but warned that China investments in Treasuries should not be politicized
- (RU) Russia Fin Min Kudrin: Russian economic growth cannot be called stable; Sees 2010 budget deficit at 5.4%
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR): Value of Gold Holdings in Jun rose 2%
- (US) American Bankers Association (ABA): Q1 Composite loan delinquencies q/q: 2.98% v 3.18% prior (down -21bps)
- (GE) Reportedly, Germany's Cabinet approved budget draft for 2011, budget signals exit from stimulus

- Currencies: The bi-polar equity sentiment again swung the risk pendulum back into the aversion camp on Wednesday. The sub-50 reading in the employment component of the US non-Manufacturing survey on Tuesday provided the backdrop for a firmer USD and JPY into the European morning. The pending release of the European Stress Tests for the banking sector added to concerns. EUR/USD retraced from its recent two-month highs of 1.2662 achieved yesterday to test 1.3560 area, where some decent bids were said to be found for the time being. USD/JPY tested 87.00 before consolidating its price action. EUR/JPY off over a big figure to test 109.30. Gold maintained a soft tone (aided by China's SAFE comments on precious metals) to test below $1,187/oz ahead of the NY morning. The spread between the Spanish/German Gov't bond widened by 10bps in the session above 215bps.

- Geo-Political:
-According to media sources, reports by UK's Public Sector Pensions Commission (PSPC) indicated that the public-sector pensions are worth twice as much as previously believed. The true value of the main unfunded public-sector pension plans is more than 40% of salary against the current combined employer and employee contribution rates of about 20% of salary.
- Australia national elections may now take place as early as the 21st of August citing Australian press reports. Prior press reports indicated elections could take place by the 28th of August.

- In the Papers: An article by London Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard noted that Standard Chartered told some clients to plan for a decline in Chinese property prices by as much as 30%.
- New York Times commented on the persistently high levels of inflation in the UK, reporting that it has been more resilient there than in the US or the EU.
- London Independent noted the most recent forecasts from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) the Institute of Directors (IoD), which suggests the UK economy may relapse into recession.
- According to a report released last week by the BIS, the agency has taken 349 metric tons of gold since Dec, which has allowed central banks to raise $14B. WSJ; According to the article, some central banks are using gold's high value to raise cash.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (RU) Russia May Trade Balance: $ v $12.0Be v $13.0B prior
- 6:00 (GE) Germany May Factory Orders M/M: % v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 24.9%e v 29.6% prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation: 0.55e v 1.5% prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jul 2nd: No est v 8.8% prior
- 7:30 (GE) German Fin Min Schaeuble briefs on 2011 Budget
- 7:45 (US) ICSC Weekly Retail sales
- 8:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank minutes
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Jun IBGE Inflation M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.0%e v 5.2% prior
- 8:30 (CL) Chile Jun Trade Balance: $1.2Be v $729.1M prior; Total Exports: No est v $5.4B prior; Total Imports: No est v $4.7B prior
- 8:55 (US) Redbook Weekly Retail Sales
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Jun Ivey Purchasing Managers Index: 64.0e v 62.7 prior
- 15:35 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speech
- 16:30 (US) API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories



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