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Wednesday July 7, 2010 - 16:06:04 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (7 July 2010)

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2555 level and was capped around the $1.2640 level.  Concerns continue to mount that the global economy is headed toward a double dip recession and higher-yielding currencies like the common currency are at risk.  Traders also pared long euro exposure after it was reported that German May factory orders slid 0.5% following April’s revised print of +3.2%.  Economists had expected a May result of around +0.3% and factory orders were up 24.8% y/y.    Most traders believe the European Central Bank will keep monetary policy unchanged on Thursday. Remarks from President Trichet will likely focus on liquidity provisions by the ECB and stress tests on eurozone banks.  There is increasing chatter the ECB may be forced to adopt a quantitative credit expansion to deal with problems in the eurozone.  Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-16 Q1 final gross domestic product up 0.2% q/q and 0.6% y/y, unchanged from previous estimates or forecasts.  Also, the French May trade balance worsened to -€5.5 billion from a revised -€4.3 billion.  In U.S. news, Dallas Fed President Fisher said the Fed has “done enough” to stimulate economic growth.  He added “Interest rates are zero.  It’s not the cost of money that the issue…Companies are hoarding cash, they’re holding back, they’re not hiring people, they’re not building plant and equipment at the pace we’d like to see.  This has nothing to do with monetary policy.  We have been as accommodative as possible.”  Fisher also noted “Deflation, as is inflation, are tail risks.” Kansas City Fed President Hoenig reported a 1% federal funds target rate “wouldn’t hurt the economy” and said 3% economic growth is “within the realm of possibility.” Data released in the U.S. today saw MBA mortgage applications move lower to +6.7%.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2720 level. 



¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥87.00 figure and was capped around the ¥87.65 level.  Traders continue to buy yen on concerns the global economic recovery will be difficult to sustain and weak equity markets also fueled yen gains.  An intensification in risk aversion will likely benefit the yen further.  Data released in Japan overnight saw June official reserve assets increase to US$ 1.050 trillion.  Data to be released in Japan tonight include June bank lending, May factory orders, May current account data, and the May trade balance.  Dealers are paying close attention to Japanese politics where Prime Minister Kan’s Democratic Party of Japan party could lose its upper-house majority on 11 July.  Kan and the DPJ are seeking to increase taxes.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.77% to close at ¥9,338.04.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥86.29 level.   The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥109.30 level and was capped around the ¥110.70 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥132.85 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥82.95 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7771 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7805.  People’s Bank of China official Zhang reported PBoC “must deal with” excess liquidity” even as evidence emerges of slowing domestic growth.  Chinese officials seem intent on countering inflation and containing liquidity. Agricultural Bank of China appears poised to raise US$ 19.2 billion in its initial public offering.  The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries “shouldn’t be politicized.”  SAFE added the “nuclear” option of liquidating its U.S. Treasury holdings is “completely unnecessary.”  PBoC official Yi indicated China does not want to fight trade wars. 


The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5215 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5080 level.  Data to be released in the U.K. tomorrow include June Halifax house prices, May industrial production, May manufacturing production, and the June NIESR GDP estimate.  Bank of England is expected to keep its headline Bank rate target unchanged tomorrow at 0.50% and to keep its asset purchase program unchanged at £200 billion.  Traders will pay very close attention to tomorrow’s MPC vote to see if there are additional calls for higher rates.    Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4620 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.8300 level and was capped around the £0.8335 level.



The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0525 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0635 level.  Data to be released in Switzerland tomorrow include the June unemployment rate.  Data released in Switzerland this week saw June consumer price inflation off 0.4% m/m and up 0.5% y/y, a moderation of price pressures.  Swiss National Bank’s foreign currency holdings declined last month to CHF 225.8 billion from CHF 232.1 billion in May as SNB officials stopped selling francs for euro or U.S. dollars.  Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand this week said he is “closely monitoring” the franc, adding its fluctuation has “clearly increased.”  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3265 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5965 level.


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