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Thursday July 8, 2010 - 13:32:38 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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That’s nice.

Key News
  • The International Monetary Fund upgraded its 2010 global growth forecast on Thursday, citing robust expansion in Asia and renewed U.S. private demand, but warned the euro area's debt crisis posed a big risk to recovery. The IMF said the euro zone's sovereign financing problems and resulting financial market turbulence were significant challenges, especially with the web of financial and trade links connecting Europe to the world. However, a double-dip world recession was highly unlikely. (Reuters)
  • A surprise jump in Australian employment in June pushed the Australian dollar up more than 1 percent on the day against the dollar and up nearly 2 percent against the low-yielding yen. (Reuters)
Quotable

“No passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear.” –Edmund Burke                

FX Trading – That’s nice.

Was it last week (I don’t know, the weeks are running together these days) when China announced it would allow the yuan to move more flexibly with the market?

Speculation that China’s currency will actually rise, since China’s yuan announcement, has waned. But China is back on the wires telling us they’ll maintain their announced currency policy and be sure that the yuan is stable while they also keep monetary policy nice and loose.

That’s nice.

Barack Obama made some comments yesterday about the US economy.

Among them, he wants an “even playing field” in China where US companies can access the growing Chinese marketplace. It’s all part of the goal that the White House has to double exports in five years. After a respectable uptick in export growth over the first four months of 2010, the administration believes the US is on track to meet this goal.

That’s nice.

The IMF just made a revision to their global GDP forecast – I guess this is something they do a lot; some people must find it useful, I guess.

Citing risks in Europe that are compensated by growth in US private spending and overall Asian economic activity, the IMF believes the world will grow by 4.6% in 2010 ... up from the original estimate of 4.2%. They did not change their 2011 forecast. They noted little chance of a double-dip recession.

That’s nice.

As older tax cuts expire and Obamacare sets in, Americans will be seeing an increase in taxes.

Starting in 2011 the tax on personal income will increase for all income brackets. The capital gains tax is set to increase from 15% to 20%, while businesses will see several additional taxes and expirations on prior tax cuts.

That’s nice.

China recently took efforts to stem a very frothy housing market, among other speculative investments.

Minimum down-payment levels and mortgage rates have been hiked; and they’ve considered an annual tax. Yet prices rose more than 12% in the biggest Chinese cities in the most recently reported month. An eventual 20% decrease in average home prices over the next 12 months is considered a reasonable estimate.

That’s nice.

US consumer sentiment still needs much more time to recover as Americans are faced with the potential of a double-dip recession, a government that seems unmotivated or ill-equipped (or both) to tackle reckless fiscal policy, persistent unemployment and a global economy that’s hoping Asian growth can counter European struggle.

Consumers and businesses are already reticent. Until their fears reside and expectations take a dramatic turn northward, the economic activity will remain subdued.

Looking through the rosy lens of the IMF, China’s bubble-potential shouldn’t throw Asia off track and Europe won’t be a very big drag on global finance or markets. Thus, the goal of doubling US exports in five years should remain on track.

That’s nice.

[Chart not available in text format.]

John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital
www.blackswantrading.com


Currencies are another asset class …

How many times have you seen pictures of people sitting on the beach with their laptop in hand in those “Trade Forex, Commission-Free!” advertisements?  “Open an FX account, quit your real job, sit on the beach and get rich” is the implicit message.  It’s ridiculous!  But unfortunately that is what sells.  

It doesn’t have to be that way.  You don’t have to buy into the hype ... and you don’t have to take that much risk in order to get involved in currencies.  Trading can be profitable; but it requires extreme focus and discipline.  There is another way if you want to “invest” in currencies.

 Investing in currencies for the long haul means using currencies as another asset class in your portfolio.  An asset class that will stand along stocks and bonds and hopefully provide some much needed diversification.  

There are plenty of low leveraged long-term investment choices available to you so you can make real money in currencies.  They are called Currency Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).  

An ETF is a simple straightforward currency product that you can buy and sell in your standard equity brokerage account.  It’s the same as buying any other fund traded on the exchange.  We offer recommendations on Currency ETFs in our month Currency Investor newsletter.  We don’t recommend trading them; we do recommend investing in them using a long-term buy and hold strategy.  

To sum it up: Our monthly Currency Investor newsletter is geared toward newcomers and experienced investors who are looking for a conservative approach to the foreign exchange market, and learning more about how the global economy works.

In plain language we deliver global macroeconomic analysis and actionable ideas geared toward exchange rate fluctuations over time.

Our analysis is comprehensible and our recommendations consist of ETFs, as I said. So don’t get turned off by buzz words like “exchange rates” or “foreign exchange” – this investing strategy is as easy to implement as buying and selling stocks.

Plus, at $39 per year it’s a deal you’d be hard-pressed to find anywhere else.

Thorough global analysis plus complete investment guidance ... and all for only $39 per year?  You can become a Member of our Currency Investor service at our homepage via credit card or PayPal.

Thank you.

All the best,

David Newman
Director of Sales and Marketing
Black Swan Capital
dnewman@blackswantrading.com  
Phone: 866-846-2672

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

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