U.S. Equities Called Higher after Better Jobs Data
Stocks moved higher this morning following the release of a
better than expected drop in Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Actual claims
dropped 21,000 to 454,000. Pre-report estimates were for claims to come in at
September Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes broke on the
news of the drop in Initial Claims. Yields in the 10-Year Notes crept back
above the important 3% level. Treasuries may get hit hard today as traders
forego their safety and lower yields for riskier assets.
The U.S. Dollar weakened against most major currencies
following the release of the Initial Claims Report. The Japanese Yen fell on
the news.Look for pressure on this
currency if equity markets continue to rally.
The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate
at a historically low 1% as expected, but the key to todayâ€™s Euro movement will
be what comes out of the mouth of ECB President Trichet.
Trichet is expected to address two key issues: the extension
of liquidity support and his opinion on the European bank stress tests. As it
currently stands, the current ECB stimulus program is set to expire in October.
Investors are looking at the possibility of an extension of this program due to
the negative effect the Greek sovereign debt crisis has had on the Euro Zone
economy. Investors are also looking for Trichetâ€™s opinion on the on-going bank
stress tests. They are looking for Trichet to say that he believes the tests
will be stringent enough to restore investor confidence.
To recap Wednesdayâ€™s trading action, an improved outlook for
earnings helped boost U.S.
equity futures following sluggish overnight session. U.S. stock index futures turned
higher shortly before the opening after trading lower overnight because of fear
about a slow down in the global economy. Investors in Asia and Europe also began to take risk off the table on concerns
that the current European stress tests will not be stringent enough to recover
potential problems with the banking system.
There were no major U.S. economic reports on Wednesday
so the focus shifted back toward the economy and earnings. Investors have been
selling the Dollar lately and buying higher risk assets. This was especially
apparent on Tuesday when weak U.S. ISM Services data turned around a weaker
stock market. This morning upbeat earnings news regarding State Street Corp.
helped turn investors optimistic about the upcoming earnings season. The money
manager projected that second-quarter profits would be well above analystsâ€™ forecasts.
The strong rally based on the upbeat forecast was an
indication that earnings will be the major catalyst in the market over the next
Technically the September E-mini S&P 500 confirmed
Tuesdayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom with a follow-through rally on
Wednesday. The strong rally has the market in a position to test its first
upside objective at 1066.00. A move through this level could trigger an even
further rally to the 61.8% level at 1081.00.
Strong demand for higher yielding assets helped drive the
September Treasury Bonds lower. The first clue that this market was topping was
revealed on Tuesday after the T-Bonds failed to rally following the release of
a weaker than expected U.S. ISM Services Report. This market now appears to be
set up for a correction back to 125â€™15. A strong rally in the equity markets is
likely to trigger the start of an acceleration to the downside.
August Gold made a closing price reversal bottom on
Wednesday, triggered by oversold conditions and a weaker Dollar. The chart
pattern indicates a move to $1224.30 is likely over the near-term. If there is
no follow-through to the upside on Thursday, then look for a resumption of the
downtrend with $1158.30 the next likely downside target.
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Mon 23 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 July 2018 AFlash PMIs Wed 25 July 2018 A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 July 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 27 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- GDP A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
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