17:00 GMT- July 9 (global-view.com) As expected, Forex Trading was subdued Friday to top off a restrained week. The only major data release came from Canada and it was considerably stronger than expected. Canadian data have a tendency to be volatile but the underlying figures have been soli all year. However, some say Canada cannot grow exclusively on its own due to its dependence on commodity exports. The CAD is considerably stronger, as they could impact future monetary policy.
There was much discussion about the Thursday European Central Bank meeting press conference. Many are taking the view that President Trichet and the central bank is getting its confidence back. The central bank is tolerating the recent increase in European money market rates, but indicated that they were not a result of a a policy change. There was a lot of chatter today that the recent forex intervention has resulted in EUR8bln in losses on EUR purchases against the Swissy.
The EURUSD is now down on the day and the GBPUSD is lower. EURGBP is steady. Traders are maintaining a close watch on the European sovereign debt situation.
In the GBP, the U.K. new government is weak. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.
The EURCHF is up. SNB intervention tactics are confusing. Periodically, the SNB has taken a strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. EURCHF is estimated to have resulted in EUR 8bln in forex losses for the SNB.
The USDJPY is steady and the EURJPY cross is lower. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.
Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are mixed vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently raised interest rates by 25bps but the BOC sent dovish signals afterwards. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, RBA is setting up for an August tightening. The RBNZ is also currently in a tightening mode. Oil and gold are up. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We have favored AUD, CAD, gold and oil recently, but doubts are creeping in as deflationary pressures mount.
Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed mostly higher. European bourses were up. U.S. equities are mixed. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.05%, +3 bps.
Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Japanese Corporate Goods Prices (Wholesale Prices). In Europe , U.K. Current Account and GDP data are due. In North America, the U.S.will see a three-year auction.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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