Monday July 12, 2010 - 03:44:19 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 12-Jul-2010 - 0339 GMT
The US Equities were up last week on favourable data release. The Dow (10198.03) was up 5.28% and the S&P 500 (1077.96) closed up 5.42%. The Dow has some Support in the region of 10200-400 in the coming days.
The Asian Equities are up today. The Nikkei (9592.11) is flat and the Shanghai (2485.89) is up 0.61%. In India, the Sensex (17833.54) was up 2.13% and the Nifty (5352.45) was up 2.20% last week. The Sensex may move towards 18000 in the coming days.
Crude (76.12) is continuing with its upmove and is trading higher above 76. While above 76, there are good chances of further rise towards 77.80-78.00 which is the next significant Resistance region seen on the upside. However, reports says that the recent rise is happening on thin volumes which leaves high chances of witnessing a sharp pull back once again anytime.
Gold (1209.40) is continuing to oscillate around 1200. Lack of strength on its upmove above 1200 is retaining the downside pressure. As mentioned earlier, 1220-30 is the Support-turned-Resistance level to be watched for and a break above it is required to see a sharp upmove going forward.
The Euro (1.2597) has come off sharply from Friday's high of 1.2722. With Resistance at 1.2675, there are good chances if seeing further fall towards 1.2500-2475 today. The Yen has weakened following the Japan's ruling party's failure to win the upper house election. Dollar-Yen (89.08) has risen above 89 and might see 89.30-50 today. Euro-Yen Cross (112.20) might test the Resistance region 113.00-50 while abve 112 today.
The Pound (1.5026) has Support at 1.4973 (21-Week-MA) and if it holds might see a rise once again towards 1.5200. However, a break below it might trigger a dip towards 1.48-47. Dollar-Swiss (1.0572) is continuing to trade below the 200-DMA (1.0626). Significant Resistance-turned-Support is seen at 1.0512 which if holds might trigger a bounce back towards 1.0700 in the coming days. Aussie (0.8748) is looking like losing its upside momentum and has failed to see a strong break above 0.8800 during last week's sharp rise. With the 55-Week-MA (0.8802) Resistance, there are good chances of seeing a fall towards 0.8650-0.8600 in the coming days.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1197 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3801. Dollar-Rupee has closed lower at 46.66/67 last week. However, it has good Support in the 46.55-35 region and the broader picture remain bullish.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.53%. The 2Y yield was flat at 0.62% and the 10Y yield was up 3 bps to quote at 3.05%.
08:30 GMT UK GDP Q1 '10 (Fnl)
...Expected 0.3%...Previous 0.3%
UK June Trade Balance
...Actual $ -8.1 Bln...Previous $ -7.4 Bln
June CA Labour Force
...Actual 93.2 K...Previous 24.7K
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