Tuesday March 29, 2005 - 09:26:54 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 29/3/2005
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil closed around $53.75 yesterday, keeping the current downside move in progress, however still within the uptrend channel. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed around 10.485, recovering some ground after the Easter pause.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.2935 level. Big selloff of the single currency during the past sessions. The weakness shown is threatening of a trend change in the daily chart in this pair. The 200-day simple moving average magnet can play a key role for a clear picture of the long term view, but a break of it, should the move continue on the downside, would significantly change the long term trend. The moving averages continue to move south, and if they finally cross on the downside, they are quite close to the 200-day moving average, so we could have a very bearish cross on the pair. Only if the pair trades back above 1.32 this view is negated.
Moving averages overview: EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2740. Pair is trading below the 2 moving averages (20&50), though they still hold a bullish cross.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative – no signal (flat). Indicators watch-level 2: EUR Neutral.
Gbp/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8735 level. Pair has just broken and quickly re-gained the uptrend line that comes from september, 2003. The line is very close to the 200-day simple moving average, therefore a break of that level is very bearish for the pair .... given the fact that the shorter moving averages are poised for a bearish cross and they are not far from the 200-day moving average. Only a break above 1.91 would start negating the view (unrealistic for now).
Moving averages overview: GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8567. Pair is below both moving averages now.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Negative – no signal (flat). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral-Negative.
Usd/Chf: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.20 level. The upmove by the USD has been halted ahead of the 200-day simple moving average. Moving averages (shorter (20&50)) look poised for an upside cross, and if that happens, pair will gain momentum and an attempt to break both the 200-day moving and the strong downtrend resistance, which today lays aroound 1.22, is more than likely. Indicators are pretty neutral, so no clear signal from that point of view.
Moving averages overview: USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2088. Pair is above both moving averages now.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): USD Positive - no signal – (flat). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Positive.
Eur/Gbp: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.69 level. Pair has broken the 50-day moving average on the downside, and the effect of the bullish cross might have disappeared for now until the price action situates the closing level above the 20-day moving average. Both the shorter movings and the current price action are very close to the 200-day simple moving average, so we could have some real interesting developments in the coming session.
Moving averages overview: pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6860 today. Pair is on a bullish cross by the 2 moving averages now.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Neutral. Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Positive.
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