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Tuesday July 13, 2010 - 10:01:13 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 13/07/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis July 13,
Analysis: FOMC Meeting Minutes
The American traders anticipate
the publication oh The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes,
them being a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about
two weeks earlier. The minutes provide detailed insights regarding the FOMC's
stance on monetary policy, so Currency traders carefully comb them for clues
regarding future interest rate shifts.
The Euro did not decisively break the support or the
resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report: it stopped 4 pips above the
resistance specified in the report, and then found a bottom only 2 pips below
the reportâ€™s support. The price topped at 1.2720 on Friday, in what turned out
to be the most serious test of the top of the rising channel on the hourly
chart. The drop which followed the weekâ€™s open, raised the possibilities that we
could be before an important turning point at the channel top, especially after
dropping from Fridayâ€™s high 150 pips so far. As we said in our last report: â€śWe
will not be able to escape the fact that a break here will be a very positive
signal for both the short & medium terms. But, if we keep trading below (or
around) it, we could be facing a turning point which will probably lead to a
drop of hundreds of pointsâ€ť, and we still stand by this view! Short term support
is at 1.2552, and once we break it, we will start drifting away from the channel
top, and will target 1.2442, and may be 1.2393. The resistance is at 1.2601, and
if broken, the negative outlook we have been praising will get a â€śshockâ€ť, and
the Euro will be on the way to 1.2737, and may be 1.2801.
â€˘ 1.2552: Wednesdayâ€™s low.
â€˘ 1.2442: May 18th
â€˘ 1.2393: June 25th high.
the falling trend line from Fridayâ€™s top on hourly chart.
â€˘ 1.2737: May 12th
â€˘ 1.2801: May 11th
The Dollar/Yen retreated a
little bit, and found a bottom at 88.37. As we have explained several times, it
seems that we are in a wave 4 correction now (please refer to the attached
chart), which will ideally target a Fibonacci ratio of the wave 3 dive. But the
important question now is this: is the 4th wave correction done? yesterdayâ€™s
close produced a shooting star pattern on the daily chart, making us believe
that this correction is probably over! Short term support is at Fridayâ€™s top
88.37, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 87.35 &
86.47. The resistance is at 88.76, and breaking it would mean that the Dollar
will continue to capitalize its latest bounce, which will ideally target
Fibonacci levels for wave 3: 89.52 & 90.13. This pair is going as expected,
in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical
outlook for the medium term. We absolutely expect the fall to continue on the
medium term. But we should not neglect the enormous possibilities of a bounce up
targeting Fibonacci levels: a bounce is highly probable, and it is most likely
to be just a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a
â€˘ 88.37: yesterdayâ€™s low which was tested
â€˘ 87.35: an obvious support area on the hourly chart, and Dec 9th 09
â€˘ 86.47: previous well known support.
88.76: the falling trend line from Asian session high on intraday charts.
89.52: Fibonacci 50% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
â€˘ 90.13: Fibonacci
61.8% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
---Forex trading analysis written
by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
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