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European Market Update: Session shrugs off numerous risk aversion catalysts (Trade the News)

Tuesday, July 13, 2010 5:51:53 AM

 European Market Update: Session shrugs off numerous risk aversion catalysts

 

***Economic Data***
- (GE) Germany Jun Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.5%e
- (FR) France Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (FR) France Jun CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8%e;
CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 120.02v 120.03e
- (HU) Hungary Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.1%e
- (SP) Spain Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2%v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (SP) Spain Jun CPI Core M/M: 0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.1%e
- (SP) Spain Jun CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (SZ) Swiss Jun Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.4% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.4% prior
- (NV) Netherlands May Trade Balance: €2.8B v €3.15B prior
- (CZ) Czech May Current Account (CZK): -24.0B v -9.6Be
- (SW) Sweden Jun AMV Unemployment Rate: 4.8% v 4.8%e
- (UK) Jun CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.1%e; Core CPI Core Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.8%e
- (UK) Jun RPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.9%e;
RPI X Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.9%e; Retail Price Index: 223.9e v 223.6 prior
- (UK) May DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y: 11.0% v 10.2%e
- (GE) Germany Jul ZEW Economic Sentiment: 21.2 v 25.3e; Current Situation: +14.6 v -1.2e (first positive reading since July 2008)
- (EU) Euro Zone Jul ZEW Economic Sentiment: 10.7 v 16.3e

Fixed Income:
- Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) sold €2.2B (lower end of €2-3B range) in 3.5% July 2020 Dutch State Loans (DSL); avg yield 2.799%; Bid-to-cover:
- Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold €1.625B in 26-week T-Bill auction; avg yield 4.65% v 4.55% prior; Bid-to-cover 3.6x v 7.7x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sold
HUF45B in 3-month T-Bills at 5.28% v 5.29% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted €195.7B in main 7-day refi operation at fixed 1.0% and €49.4B in 28-day tender operation
- (UK) BOE allotted £5B in 3-month long-term repo operation; bid-to-cover 1.28x

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM **
Notes/Observations:
- China recently invested €1B in Spain's 10-year debt auction last week
- BP installed a new cap on its leaking Gulf of Mexico oil well
- China's government quashed speculation it will abandon real-estate curbs


Equities:
- As of 6:00am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index +1.6% at 2,727 ; DAX Index +1.4% at 6,161; CAC-40 Index +1.6% at 3,623 and FTSE 100 Index +1.5% at 5,243

Consumer Discretionary
- Burberry [BRBY.UK]: Reports Q1 Rev £291M v £263Me; Reiterates H1 guidance
- L'Oreal OR.FR: Reports Q2 Rev €4.95B v €4.8Be; 1H Rev €9.7B v €9.6Be
- Luminar Group [LMR.UK]: Provides interim management statement: Trading broadly in line with expectations
- Northern Foods [NFDS.UK]: Provides interim management statement: Trading as expected in challenging conditions

Financials
- SEB Bank [SEBA.SW]: Reports Q2 Net profit SEK2.0B v SEK1.0Be, Op profit SEK2.6B v SEK1.7Be, Rev SEK9.8B v SEK9.7Be; Q2 credit losses SEK619M v SEK1.6Be
- Unicredit [UCG.IT]: CEO Profumo is getting a tepid response from Germany's largest banks on his proposal for a privately funded €20B bank recovery fund

Industrials
- BMW [BMW.GE]: Raises 2010 outlook citing improved business conditions on the international market

Energy
- British Petroleum [BP.UK]: Confirms talks with various companies about asset sales; talks are proceeding "well'
- British Petroleum [BP]: Confirms completion of installation of the new well cap
- British Petroleum [BP]: FT sees BP taxes to UK and US to be reduced by about $10B as a result of spill clean-up costs
- Phoenix Solar [PS4.GE]: To increase capital by up to 670.2K shares; Offering expected to price at €32/share

Health Care
- Glaxosmithkline [GSK.UK]: According to a former FDA official, the company withheld information from regulators related to
AVANDIA - WSJ; It is alleged that the information that was not disclosed indicated that the drug increased the risk of heart problems.

Technology/Telecom
- Infineon [IFX.GE]: Goldman raises price target to €7 from €6.60; maintained on Conviction Buy List

- Speakers:
- Moody's cut Portugal sovereign rating by two notched to "A1"; Outlook Stable
- ECB's Trichet: World needs more than three major credit ratings agencies as their actions exacerbate market swings
- German Fin Min Schaeuble: Banks failing stress tests might need government assistance in worst case to strengthen their balance sheet
- Portugal's Finance Min: Moody's stable outlook shows confidence in current economic policy
- Moody's places "AAA" ratings of FROB on review for possible downgrade
- Slovakia Fin Min: Hope Cabinet decision on EU stability fund (
EFSF) on July 14th
- IEA issued its monthly report: Raises 2010 oil demand growth estimate to 1.77M bpd v 1.69M bpd

- Currencies: Risk aversion sentiment had plenty to feed upon in the early part of the session. Asian equities were softer after a Chinese regulator refuted reports that property lending curbs had been relaxed. The. Slovak government was opposed to a rescue package for Greece and Moody's then cut Portugal sovereign rating by two notches to "A1" (the last of the three majors to cut this debt) and placed the outlook on "Stable'. German ZEW data was below expectations. Yet the EUR/USD maintain a foothold above the 1.25 handle and drifted back towards 1.2570 after the Greek 26-week T-Bill auction results was able to maintain an average yield below the pivotal 5.0% level (came in at 4.65%) as the country tested the market's attitude since it received an EU/IMF bailout back in May. There is market talk of large Euro sell-stops building below 1.2490 area but the level was safe despite all the risk aversion catalysts that unfolded in the session.

- Geopolitical:
- Union workers at several Australian companies are seeking to increase wages by as much as 7%. Some companies potentially facing strikes include Telstra and Airport Fuel Services.
- The British government is considering a permanent tax on the pay and profits of banks with one estimate noting that a balance sheet levy could bring in £2.5B each year for 2012
- PIMCO's Fisher commented the he does not expect a default by Greece in the near term, and sees €500B EU package as a strong support
- Columbia University Professor Mundell, also known as the 'Father of the Euro' stated that European sovereign debt may have to be restructured in the next two years.

-In the Papers:
- (EU) FT comments on slowing weekly ECB bond purchases as evidence of easing of the EU debt crisis; Says ECB only purchased €1B in EU bonds last week vs €4B each in the prior 3 weeks and €16.5B in the first week of the program in May.
- (GE) Lawmakers in Germany's ruling CDU/CSU coalition considering more stringent rules for nation's banks - FT Deutschland
- (PO) FT Alphaville notes that so far there has been only a muted market reaction to Moody's 2 notch downgrade of Portugal; Says Moodys had placed Portugal on review for downgrade in May and this could explain today's limited reaction.
- (SP) China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) invested about €1B in Spain's 10-yr debt auction held last Tuesday - FT
- (UK) (EU) FT comments on slowing weekly ECB bond purchases as evidence of easing of the EU debt crisis; Says ECB only purchased €1B in EU bonds last week vs €4B each in the prior 3 weeks and €16.5B in the first week of the program in May.

***Looking Ahead ***
- 7:00 (GE) Germany Gov't briefing on Chancellor Merkel trip to Russia and China
- 7:30 (US) Jun NFIB Small Business Optimism: No est v 92.2 prior
- 7:45 (US) ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Jun CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.2% prior
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil May Retail Sales M/M: 1.8%e v -3.0% prior; Y/Y: 10.7%e v 9.1% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland May Current Account: -€300Me v -€424M prior; Trade Balance: -€297Me v -€368m prior
- 8:30 (US) May Trade Balance: -$39.0Be v -$40.3B prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada May Int'l Merchandise Trade: C$0.0 v 0.2B prior

- 8:30 (UK) BOE's Sentence speech
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 10:00 (US) Jul IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 45.5e v 46.2 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Gross Fixed Investment: 1.8%e v 2.4% prior
- 10:30 (UK) BOE's Bailey speech at BBA conference
- 13:00 (US) US Treasury's $21B 10-yr auction
- 14:00 (US) Jun Monthly Budget Statement:-$69.4Be v -$94.3B prior

- 16:30 (US) API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Jul 11th: no est v -42 prior

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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