***Economic Data**** - (US) Jun NFIB Small Business Optimism: 89.0 v 92.2 prior - (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Jul 10th: -1.5% w/w; 3.2% y/y - (PD) Poland Jun CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.1%e - (PD) Poland May Current Account: -â‚¬268M v -â‚¬300Me; Trade Balance: -â‚¬455M v -â‚¬297Me - (BR) Brazil May Retail Sales M/M: 1.4% v 1.8%e; Y/Y: 10.2% v 10.7%e - (US) May Trade Balance: -$42.3B v -$39.0Be v -$40.3B prior - (CA) Canada May Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$500M v C$0.0e (flat) - (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e July 10th: +3.1% y/y; MTD: -0.4% v Jun - (US) July IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 44.7 v 45.5e - (MX) Mexico Apr Gross Fixed Investment: 0.5% v 1.8%e
- Strong quarterly results from Alcoa and CSX are helping US equities advance this morning and raising hopes for a positive June quarter earnings season. The Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit grew nearly 5% m/m in May to its widest levels since late 2008. The deficit with China rose to $22.3B, making for the largest imbalance since last October and a 15.4% jump from the April deficit. Crude is at its highs of the session, up nearly two bucks with the front month contract trading around the $77 handle. Note that yesterday the Obama Administration announced new deepwater drilling moratorium, adjusting the requirements to steer around the hold put on its earlier moratorium by a US appeals court. Metals are also rallying led by gold and silver futures each up at session highs gaining more than 1% and 2% respectively. Treasury prices remain under a bit of pressure sending the US 10-year yield up to towards two week highs at 3.09%. Optimism surrounding the upcoming earnings season and receding concern surrounding the euro-zone debt situation is buoying flows out of ultra safe Treasuries ahead of this afternoon's $21B 10-year reopening.
- Alcoa's Q2 results were firmly in line with expectations, although the firm's outlook for Q3 and the full year is providing confidence in early trading this morning. The company raised its guidance for global aluminum consumption to +12% y/y, up from +10% prior, and said that its end markets remain strong. Shares of AA were up as much as 4% at the open, but are now down to +1%. CSX's earnings for Q2 were well ahead of expectations, and on the conference call executives said the firm's volume and revenue outlook for next quarter is favorable and said the economic recovery would continue in the second half of the year. CSX is down 1%. Chevron is up more than 1% after telling investors that its Q2 results would beat expectations, thanks to improved refining margins, favorable FX impact and lower commodity prices; XOM also rose on the news, although the name is back to unchanged mid morning.
- In other earnings, Indian consulting firm Infosys met expectations in its Q1 report and slightly increased its full year revenue outlook. Bellwether semi name Novellus beat top- and bottom-line expectations, and said that growth in China consumerism will continue to support a multi-year recovery in the semiconductor equipment industry. Construction materials wholesaler Fastenal modestly exceeded consensus expectations. Healthcare benefits administrator Amedisys offered dim guidance for its Q2, warning that it would miss expectations significantly due to one-time costs. California Pizza Kitchen is up 4% after boosting its view on its Q2 results.
- Risk appetite continued to gain momentum in the New York session, with the greenback at session lows against the major European pairs. Spreads on European peripheral debt continued to narrow following the Greek 26-week auction earlier today. Dealers noted that the current situation is giving some players "free money," as certain investors lend to Greece for six months and borrow from the ECB at a fixed 1% rate (the consensus sees little risk of a Greek default in next six months). EUR/USD is firmly above the 1.2640 level with dealers eyeing last week's high of 1.2722 as key resistance.GBP also aided by hawkish remarks from BoE member Sentence, who insisted that interest rates need to gradually rise.
***Looking Ahead*** - 13:00 (US) US Treasury's $21B 10-yr auction - 14:00 (US) Jun Monthly Budget Statement:-$69.4Be v -$94.3B prior - 16:30 (US) API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories - 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Jul 11th: no est v -42 prior
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Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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