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Tuesday April 27, 2004 - 01:34:35 GMT
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Daily Forecast on Majors for 27th April 2004

General Market Conditions

Given the critical juncture of the Dollar痴 long term trend, the Dollar Index close to a weekly downtrend line and also poised just above a weekly uptrend line against the Euro it does not come as too much of a surprise to see the market hesitating right now. The marginal break of the 1.1775 low in the Euro yesterday was rather a surprise and does suggest another dip lower but overall the picture seems to favor a generally bearish Dollar for the moment. This could still be a relatively minor correction in the medium term picture but we should also be aware that there are some indications of a potential medium term peak. We shall need to see how the Dollar performs over the coming days to clarify the larger picture although until crucial supports are broken we shall remain with a broadly bullish outlook.

USDJPY
Price: 108.75

Day View
Resistance: 108.85 ... 109.05 ... 109.25 ... 109.40
Support....: 108.30 ... 108.05 ... 107.65 ... 107.20

Bias: Cautiously lower

Bullish: The break of 108.60 does not support a bullish stance in the short term. The only scenario we could envisage is for the decline yesterday to have completed the correction and from here we shall see a break above the initial resistance between 108.85-109.05 and then if the rally manages to break back above 109.40 we feel that a test of 110.20 is possible. Next resistance is at 110.65-111.10.

Bearish: Break of 108.60 appears to give the Dollar a slightly softer look to the short term. There is resistance at 108.85-109.05 and while this holds we feel the bias remains lower towards 108.05 and 107.65. This area should be observed as it may allow a return to the upside. However, any break of 107.60 would trigger losses down to the stronger 107.00-20 support.



Week View
Resistance: 109.40 ... 110.25 ... 111.55 ... 112.15
Support....: 107.20 ... 106.65 ... 105.80 ... 104.95

Breach of 108.60 has allowed a break below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and gives a slightly bearish outlook. Schaff Trend Cycle has remained at zero while FXS-RSI has dipped into oversold territory. Yesterday's move tend to provide more emphasis on the downside but we should see the 106.65-107.20 area support.

Bullish: The prior bullish picture has broken down and while this does not rule out further gains over time, the immediate prospects look less positive. To return to a direct rally we need to see price remain above 107.00-20 and for a break above 109.40-85 which would then spur price higher to the next targets at 110.65 and probably 111.55. Next resistance is at 112.15.

Bearish: The dip below 108.60 yesterday gives a more bearish undertone to price here and we feel there is a good chance we shall see the drift lower continue towards 108.05 and the stronger 106.65-107.20 support area. ONly below this would cause the decline to continue.


Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 109.25 ... 111.15 ... 112.30 ... 114.90
Support....: 104.80 ... 103.30 ... 101.30 ..... 99.50

Having seen a move back above the 107.21-65 area the emphasis appears to be back on the upside in line with the bullish weekly and monthly cycles. We require 104.80-00 to hold for this and a move back above 109.25 would encourage gains up to 111.15, 112.32 with 114.90 being a higher target to keep in mind. Back below 104.80 would threaten the 103.42 low and call for losses down to 100.40.


EURUSD
Price: 1.1850

Day View
Resistance: 1.1885 ... 1.1900 ... 1.1940 ... 1.1970
Support....: 1.1820 ... 1.1805 ... 1.1785 ... 1.1760

Bias: Cautiously lower

Bullish: A marginal new low seen yesterday followed by a moderately strong recovery. Overall we feel that the upside looks limited today and thus only a break above 1.1900 would generate a test of the 1.1940-45 area and this level needs to break for there to be a stronger move higher. If so then next resistance is at 1.1970 and then 1.2070-75.

Bearish: The marginal new low at 1.1758 yesterday tends to suggest a second dip to 1.1710-25. The peak at 1.1884 may well have completed the move higher although we see risk of a move as high as 1.1900. From this resistance area a move back below 1.1785-1.1805 would allow losses to follow-through to 1.1710-25 before higher again.



Week View
Resistance: 1.1940 ... 1.2020 ... 1.2077 ... 1.2220
Support....: 1.1725 ... 1.1655 ... 1.1560 ... 1.1450

Although a new low was seen yesterday price has returned to 4-hour Pivot Cloud and clouds the immediate view. Schaff TC1 is now rising while FXS-RSI has become rather lackluster neutral territory. The 1.1725 - 1.1940 range is crucial to the next larger move and break will generate the sentiment for the coming month. Ahead of that break we could see some narrow range trading.

Bullish: The recovery from 1.1775 threatened the 1.1940 resistance on Friday and while there has been a new low at 1.1758 there has been no confirmation of the downside yet. Still, break at 1.1940 is required to generate a correction to the entire downside from 1.2927. Any further gains now would imply follow through to 1.2075 and probably back to 1.2145 and 1.2220-40.

Bearish: Having seen the Double Top target met on Thursday we need to be cautious and the current test of the crucial 1.1940 resistance is key to the downside. From this level we require a move back below 1.1840 and 1.1725 to keep the downside intact. Once through we would then expect to see losses continue to 1.1560 and 1.1450.


Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.2085 ... 1.2325 ... 1.2455 ... 1.2655
Support....: 1.1720 ... 1.1560 ... 1.1310 ... 1.1165

While the progress lower has been choppy we do feel that the repeated rejection around 1.2400-55 and the decline from there should now allow price to move down to the Double Top target around 1.1720-50 and we suspect now a stronger decline. Support at 1.1560 may hold for a while but we while 1.1820-50 holds we consider the larger risk to be lower to 1.1165 over the next 4-6 weeks.


USDCHF
Price: 1.3075

Day View
Resistance: 1.3095 ... 1.3135 ... 1.3150 ... 1.3180
Support....: 1.3040 ... 1.3020 ... 1.3005 ... 1.2980

Bias: Cautiously higher

Bullish: The pullback from the important 1.3225 resistance moved all the way to the other end of the range at 1.3040 which provides crucial support. We feel that at the very least there should be a pullback today and once resistance at 1.3095 is breached that we should see follow through to 1.3135-50 at least. Caution advised at this level. Further resistance is at 1.3180 and only directly above 1.3225 would provide an aggressive rally.

Bearish: Although tested once again price has not breached the important 1.3040 support and until that happens we feel there is risk of a pullback at the very least - if not a resumption of the uptrend. Thus, only while resistance at 1.3135-50 holds and a break is seen of 1.3040 would we look for further losses that should then decline towards next support at 1.2955.



Week View
Resistance: 1.3225 ... 1.3305 ... 1.3385 ... 1.3490
Support....: 1.3040 ... 1.2955 ... 1.2870 ... 1.2790

Price has continued to hold above key support at 1.3040 though has broken below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud. Schaff Trend Cycle is now declining while FXS-RSI has been directionless in neutral territory. The entire picture appears to be at a crucial stage and break of the 1.3030-1.3225 range looks to set the direction for the coming weeks.

Bullish: Failure to break below 1.3030-40 and the move to 1.3205 does keep the upside alive but final confirmation of strength will come only in a break of 1.3225. Once seen this should provide a lift to 1.3310 at least and we feel to 1.3375 en route 1.3490.

Bearish: Although we saw a marginal new high at 1.3225 this still does not confirm further strength and while it holds above the 1.3030-40 support area we cannot confirm the downside. However, only a clear break of this lower support would cause a sharp reversal and a move back to 1.2955 and 1.2870.

Month View
(Updated 3rd April)
Resistance: 1.3085 ... 1.3235 ... 1.3410 ... 1.3700
Support....: 1.2625 ... 1.2515 ... 1.2180 ... 1.1700

The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.



GBPUSD
Price: 1.7845

Day View
Resistance: 1.7855 ... 1.7875 ... 1.7905 ... 1.7950
Support....: 1.7815 ... 1.7800 ... 1.7770 ... 1.7735

Bias: Higher to 1.7950 but caution advised there

Bullish: Break of 1.7815 has led to a test towards the next resistance at 1.7900 and we feel that while 1.7800 holds (maximum 1.7770) we should see a further rally towards 1.7950 at least. However, this area looks important and could generate a pullback at the very least. Further resistance is at 1.7975-00.

Bearish: The break of 1.7815 does not support a bearish stance for today. In fact we see the 1.7800-15 area as a likely low for a further move higher. Thus only below 1.7770 would cause a deeper move lower once again with initial support at 1.7730-40. Further support is at 1.7690.



Week View
Resistance: 1.7905 ... 1.7950 ... 1.8000 ... 1.8115
Support....: 1.7770 ... 1.7625 ... 1.7445 ... 1.7375

Price has broken above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud having broken the 1.7815 resistance. Schaff Trend Cycle has remained at at 100 while FXS-RSI has risen and is hovering just inside overbought territory. The break higher looks positive but we feel that 1.7950 may well hold any initial move higher.

Bullish: Break of key resistance was seen at 1.7815 and we feel this should imply a test of 1.7950 initially but we would look for an eventual move back to 1.8115-45 at least. Further resistance is found at 1.8220-30.

Bearish: Having seen a break of 1.7815 the immediate downside looks limited. Only a break below 1.7730-40 would imply direct resumption of the downside and a test of the 1.7624 low. Break of this level would then suggest follow through to 1.7445 and 1.7375.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.8300 ... 1.8605 ... 1.8875 ... 1.9025
Support....: 1.7650 ... 1.7165 ... 1.6905 ... 1.6565

The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and expect to see progress to the next support at 1.7650 this week. From there we should see a correction develop but the coming 4-6 weeks looks bearish towards 1.7165.

 

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