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Monday May 31, 2004 - 08:20:13 GMT -

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Euro rally stalls at 100-day SMA

Daily Forex Technical Report 5-31-2004

Euro rally stalls at 100-day SMA
Dollar Yen daily and hourly oscillators extremely oversold

With the medium-term bull trend still intact, the retracement in the EURUSD will give buy on dip players the opportunity to initiate long positions towards the former resistance turned support at 1.2100, which is the moving average confluence and 38.2% fibo of 1.0760-1.2927. More immediate support is at 1.2180, the May 5 & April 8 highs and the 38.2% retracement of 1.2927-1.1758. A break above 1.2295, the May 28 high / 100-day SMA and upper Bollinger will reinstall upside momentum for a move towards 1.2385, the April 1 high and 1.2480, the 61.8% retracement. A close below the May 27 1.2086 low would jeopardize the overall bullish bias. The break below former support at 110.50 negates the near-term bullish trend in USDJPY and exposes key support at 109.35/15, the 200-day SMA / April 22 & May 4 low / 50-day SMA and 50% retracement of 103.40-114.90. A corrective rally appears likely with daily and hourly oscillators extremely oversold. Bears will look to sell on rallies for an opportunity to target 108.35, the 100-day SMA. Immediate resistance is at the former support level of 110.50/60, the 38.2% retracement of 103.40-114.90 / May 4 high and 200-day EMA. Friday's modest retracement in the GBPUSD confirms that bullish momentum dominates. With daily stochastics at extremely overbought levels, bulls will have opportunities to buy on dips. Immediate support is at 1.8295, the 50% retracement of 1.9140-1.7450, however more significant support is at 1.8100, the May 27 low / 10-day EMA and 38.2% retracement of 1.9140-1.7450. Bears will have few clear shots, but 1.8460/1.8500 might inspire reversal players thanks to the 61.8% Fibo from the Feb - May bear wave. If the area breaks, resistance will become support, exposing the next intermediate resistance at 1.8650. The downtrend in USDCHF remains intact, as the moving average confluence above should provide significant resistance for the pair. A retracement above 1.2545/55, the March 24 low and 61.8% retracement of 1.2182 -1.3226 will give bears the chance to sell towards 1.2680/1.2710, the 100-day SMA / Ichimoku cloud resistance and 50% retracement of 1.2140-1.3226. A close beyond that level would jeopardize bearish momentum. Immediate support is at Friday's 1.2425 low, followed by 1.2390, the 76.4% retracement of 1.2141 - 1.3226 and Feb 25 low. A break below that level would expose the 7 year low at 1.2140.


Comment from 05/06
On 04/13 CHF/JPY posted a low at 81.63 before a rally to the 84.32 High on 04/19, 269pts higher (slightly above our 83.70/84 zone). The cross then fell back briefly to the 82.44 Low on 04/26, 188pts lower. Today, the situation is quite mixed and range trading with an immediate bearish bias seems to be the headline. 86.40/80 will attract reversal players thanks to the High BB and 76.4% Fibo from the Mar bear wave. Below, the aggressive buy on dips crowd will step in at 84.00/50 in order to exploit the numerous key MA present there (20 EMA, 200 & 50SMA) and a strong Fibo confluence (50% Fibo from the Mar bear wave & 23.6% Fibo from the 00 - 03 bull wave). More conservative bears will wait for the obvious 87.20/70 area which benefits from a robust Fibo confluence (61.8% Fibo from the Jan 03 - Nov 03 bear wave & 76.4% Fibo from the Aug 03 - Nov 03 bear wave). Finally a key area for the bulls will be 79.50/80, the 38.2% Fibo from the 00 - 03 bull wave.

On 05/10 CHFJPY had a high at 87.75 (slightly above our 87.20/87.70 zone) and retraced to the 05/12 Low at 86.57, 118pts lower. The outlook is now slightly positive for the cross as long as we stay above the key 87.50 level. In fact, bulls will step in at 86.60/90 thanks to the Range S, 20 EMA and 61.8% Fibo from the Apr - May bull wave. A sustained breakout below the area would open the door to the 83.80/84.20 area. Bulls will consider the area in order to exploit the Low BB, 200 & 50 SMA and a solid Fibo confluence (38.2% Fibo from the Jun - Dec bull wave & 23.6% Fibo from the 00 - 03 bull wave). Bears will also have access to decent plays at 90.30/70 thanks to the Swing High, High BB and another robust Fibo confluence (76.4% Fibo from the 98 - 00 bear wave & 123.6% Fibo from the Nov - Mar bull wave). A clear breakout above would then bring us to the 91.50 level and the 138.2% Fibo projection from the Nov - Mar bull wave.


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