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Wednesday July 14, 2010 - 09:57:57 GMT
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European Market Update: Markets eyes US Retail Sales to further provide evidence of a sustainable recovery theme (Trade the News)

Wednesday, July 14, 2010 5:52:22 AM

 European Market Update: Markets eyes US Retail Sales to further provide evidence of a sustainable recovery theme (Trade the News)


***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland Jun CPI M/M: 0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y; 0.9% v 1.0% prior
- (FI) Finland May Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 2.6% v 1.8% prior
- (IN) India Jun Wholesale Prices Y/Y: 10.6% v 10.8%e
- (HU) Hungary May Final Industrial Output M/M: 5.4% v 5.4% prior; Y/Y: 13.7% v 13.7% prior
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank raised the Benchmark Interest Rate by 25bps to 1.50%; as expected
- (IT) Italy Jun Final CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y:1.3 % v 1.3%e
- (IT) Italy Jun Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4%e
- (AS) Austria Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9% prior
- (UK) Jun Jobless Claims Change: -20.8K v -20.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 4.5% v 4.5%e
- (UK) May Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 2.7% v 3.0%e; Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e
- (UK) May ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.8% v 7.9%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e; CPI - Core Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (EU) Euro Zone May Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 9.4% v 11.4%e
- (SA) South Africa May Retail Sales Constant M/M: 1.3% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.6% v 3.7%e v 3.2% prior

Fixed Income:
- (GE) Germany sells €4.02 in Apr 2.25% 2015; avg yield 1.60% v 1.47% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 1.1 prior
-(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) bond auction results: Sells total €6.8B in three tranches v €7.5B upper range
- Sold €3.3B in 3.0% Jun 2015; avg yield 2.85% v 2.91% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.41x v 1.27x prior
- Sold €1.76B in 4..75% Aug 2023; avg yield 4.43% v 5.10% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.5 x v 1.47x prior
- Sold €1.73B in 5.0% Sept 2040; avg yield 5.08% v 4.84% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.35x v 1.58x prior - (UK) DMO sells £2.25B in 4.25% Dec 2046 Gilts; avg yield % v 4.268% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.37x prior; Tail:
- (UK) DMO sells £2.25B in 4.25% Dec 2046 Gilts; avg yield % v 4.268% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.37x prior; Tail: 0.4bps

- Asian/European equities receive boost following strong after-hours earnings from Intel; - S&P seeing if it can register a seventh straight session gain
- (SP) Spain General strikes expected to resume today following world cup celebration. PM Zapaerto to deliver annual State of the Nation debate
- Fed sees slower growth. Ponders what to do if growth falters in H2.

- As of 5:45am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index -0.3% at 2,729 ; DAX Index flat at 6,190; CAC-40 Index -0.4% at 3,624 and FTSE 100 Index -0.5% at 5,247

Consumer Discretionary
- JD Wetherspoon [JDW.UK]: Provides trading update: 11-week LFL sales +1.0%; Total sales +5.8%; confident of a resilient performance for the next financial year.
- Kuoni [KUNN.SZ]: CEO positive on July bookings - German Press
- Suedzucker [SZU.GE]: Reports Q1 Net €72M v €73Me, Rev €1.5B, +9% y/y; Reiterates FY11 outlook

Allianz [ALV.GE]: Credit Suisse Raised ALV.GE to Outperform from Neutral
- Ashmore Group [ASHM.UK]: Provides trading statement: Q4 AUM +$2.3B to $35.3B
- Barratt Developments [BDEV.UK]: Provides update: FY10 operating profit at least £85M v £34.2M y/y; The outlook for the new housing market in the UK is likely to remain challenging
- Banesto [BTO.SP]: Reports Q2 Net profit €170.2M v €166Me; Q2 bad loans: 3.48% v 3.12% q/q
- London Stock Exchange [LSE.UK]: Provides interim management statement: Q1 total income £166M v £163Me, Rev £158.2M, +1% y/y; Market conditions remained variable in the first quarter, with new issue activity down on higher levels last year; Looking ahead, planning on the basis of market conditions remaining mixed.
- Munich Re [MUV2.GE]: Credit Suisse Cuts MUV2.GE to Neutral from Outperform

- British Petroleum [BP.UK]: Delays start of testing on the new well cap's ability to contain leaking oil until at least Wed; Further analysis to take place night of July 13th and 14th; To continue to ramp up containment operations while analysis is going on
- British Petroleum [BP.UK]: FT comments on 4 US senators calling for investigation into whether company publicly lobbied UK govt to release Lockerbie bomber to help secure a drilling contract in Libya
- DNO International [DNO.NO]: Received a takeover approach from RAK Petroleum - London Telegraph; According to sources, the offer from RAK valued the company at NOK11/share (26% premium to closing price).
- Dana Petroleum [DNX.UK]: Provides update on Blackbird Oil Field; announces the successful appraisal of the Blackbird oil field in the UK Central North Sea.
- EDF [EDF.FR]: Scottish & Southern Energy is no longer planning to bid for EDF's UK electricity distribution unit - London Times
- Fresnillo [FRES.UK]: Reports Q2 silver output 9.6M ozs v 9.6M y/y, gold output 91.3K ozs (record, +34% y/y); Reiterates FY10 production targets
- Rio Tinto [RIO.AU]: Reports Q2 Iron Ore output: 43.6M tons v 43.4M tons q/q, 44.6M y/y; Reiterates guidance for FY10 iron ore production of 234M tons v 217M y/y; Markets for most products are strong; noted some weakening in sentiment in recent weeks
- RWE AG [RWE.GE]: HSBC Cuts RWE.GE to Underweight from Neutral

- Most technology shares are higher following better than expected quarterly results from Intel
- ASML [ASML.NV]: Reports Q2 Net €239M v €205Me, Rev €1.7B v €1Be; Q2 gross margin 43.0% v 40.3% q/q; Guides Q3 Rev €1.1B v €1.1Be
- Motorola [MOT]: Nokia Siemens Network is in talks to buy the telecom equipment part of Motorola networks for an estimated $1.1-1.3B (about 7% of market cap) - WSJ
- STMicroelectronics [STM.FR]: Says auto supply chain is having problems meeting demand
- STMicroelectronics [STM.FR]: Delays from Swiss chipmaker STMicroelectronics to Hitachi is causing the supply delay to Nissan - Japanese press

Health Care
- Glaxosmithkline [GSK.UK]: Agrees to pay $460M to settle some cases brought against Avandia diabetes drug - Independent

- Speakers:
- German Chancellor Merkel: Credible consolidation of public finances allows central banks to maintain low rates longer
- China's Banking Regulator (CBRC): Q2 bank provisions for non-performing loans 186% v 178% at the end of May
- (CL) Magnitude 6.5 earthquake strikes northwestern Temuco, Chile - USGS

- Currencies: Rising risk appetite provided the footing for continue soft tone in the USD, JPY and CHF pairs but saw little follow through during the most of the European morning. The technology sector was benefiting from Intel post close earnings and aiding the sentiment. U.S Jun retail sales data will provide further clues if the US contribution to a sustainable recovery remains valid. Dealers citing technical factors seem to be favoring a stronger EUR/USD with a key trend line and 72-day moving average at threat. GBP/USD posted fresh two-month high above 1.5250 and aided by better employment data in the session. Overall the market seemed less concerned about any potential peripheral defaults following the Greek auction results on Tuesday as the spreads continue to narrow.

-In the Papers:
- Telegraph article that the UK's public sector debt might be £4 trillion higher in new study conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The study indicated that public may face debt figure of more than £4.8T v current £900B. Research takes into account 'off balance sheet' liabilities not covered in official figures. Articles noted that government's involvement in banking institution RBS and Lloyds could add up to an additional £1.5 trillion; unfunded public pension could also add up to £1.2 trillion.
- The Guardian noted that PIMCO's Bill Gross was now optimistic about Britain's bonds after budget cuts and sovereign debt issues in other countries made them less attractive. The article noted that this was a drastic change in PIMCO's previous comments about British bonds, warning that government gilts were resting "on a bed of nitroglycerin".
- New York Times commented on the increase in trade between companies in Germany and China noting that there has been increased demand in China for German products, including high-value electrical and electronic goods, and that Germany is China's largest trading partner in Europe with 2009 German exports to China figures totaling $46.2B
- According to PricewaterhouseCooper's Economic Outlook report, UK property prices may take 10 years to recover - London Telegraph
-Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard comments on the economic problems being faced by local governments in Spain; According to the report 1/3 of Spain's city councils are facing financial difficulties and may be forced to suspend payments by the end of the year.

***Looking Ahead ***
(PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP)) Bond auction results; Looking to sell up to €1.5B in 2012 and 2019 bonds
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jul 9th : No est v 6.7% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jun Import Price Index M/M: -0.4%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 5.3%e v 8.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jun Advance Retail Sales: -0.3%e v -1.2% prior; Ex Autos: -0.1%e v -1.1% prior; Ex Auto & Gas: 0.1%e v -0.8% prior
- 10:00 (US) May Business Inventories: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior
- 10:30 (US) DOE Weekly energy inventories
- 11:00 (US) Treasury's Barr
- 14:00 (US)Minutes of FOMC Meeting
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 10.9%e v 10.7% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 15.2% prior
- 16:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Tax Collections (BRL): 64.1Be v 61.1B prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia May Trade Balance: $454.0Me v $484.8M prior


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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

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