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Wednesday July 14, 2010 - 15:50:47 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Wednesday, July 14, 2010 11:48:40 AM

 US Market Update

Dow +30 S&P +2.5 NASDAQ +15.5

***Economic Data****
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jul 9th : -2.9% v 6.7% prior
- (US) Jun Import Price Index M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.5 v 5.3%e
- (US) Jun Advance Retail Sales: -0.5% v -0.3%e; Ex Autos: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Ex Auto & Gas: 0.1 v 0.0%e
- (US) May Business Inventories: 0.1% v 0.3%e
- (US) DOE Weekly energy inventories: Crude: -5.1M v -1.5Me; Gasoline: +1.6M v +250Ke; Distillate: +2.9M v +1Me; Utilization: 90.5% v 89.8%e

- The tech-heavy Nasdaq is leading US markets this morning thanks to Intel's strong quarterly report. The DJIA and S&P500 opened in negative territory in the wake of the June advanced retail sales data, which declined for the second month in a row, although the drop was less than in May. Note that ex automobiles and gasoline, June retail sales grew by a hair. Both the DJIA and S&P500 have clawed their way back into positive territory into the European equity close. Fed hawk Hoenig commented on his outlook again this morning, telling
CNBC that every trend line in the US economy is showing improvement, with exception of housing. Hoenig also noted it was important that markets not over react to every piece of poor economic data. Front month crude popped to fresh session and 2 week highs above $77.50 after weekly DOE inventory data showed the utilization rate climbed above 90%. Front month gold prices rallied back into positive territory as the euro surpassed 1.2750 late in the NY morning. Treasury prices have generally been higher with the 10-year yield now just below 3.1%, but prices are off their best levels. Traders are braced for this afternoon's FOMC minutes which will be preceded by a $13B 30-year reopening.

- Intel is up 4% in mid morning trading after crushing the Street's earnings estimates in its Q2 report. In addition, the company said its Q3 revenue would be well ahead of consensus expectations. Intel's CEO said strong demand from corporate customers helped the company achieve its best quarter in its 42-year history, and said the outlook for the year remains robust. More specifically, Intel sees PC market growth at 20% in 2010. The other major earnings play this morning is YUM! Brands, which opened down 3.5% and is currently trading around -2%. YUM came in a bit above par in its Q2 report and also raised its full year guidance, although on the conference call executives warned that the firm's sales would be soft for the balance of 2010, with margin pressure seen in its key
China segment. Shares of WEN are down 1% in sympathy.

- In other news, insurance company Progressive missed bottom-line estimates. Small cap telecom name Adtran rose 8% after crushing expectations and offering bullish forward looking comments in its Q2 report, although the name has come off slightly on soft conference call guidance. Expeditors International is up more than 8% after offering very strong guidance, thanks to very significant volume increases in air and ocean freight business. In other news, Goldman cut the
US homebuilders sector to Neutral from Attractive, noting that the housing recovery seems delayed. Most major homebuilder names dropped 2-4% on the news, although most are recovering in mid morning trading.

- The greenback was initially softer against the major pairs but remained contained within the ranges established earlier from Asia/Europe session. A vague rumor that
Spain's sovereign ratings might be cut at Fitch circulated ahead of the NY equity open, preventing the euro from moving above 1.2738 level tested on Tuesday. Dealers keenly point out that the real issue might stem from issues with Spanish banks from the pending July 23rd release of the EU stress test. Key short-term support for EUR/USD is seen at 1.2680 with euro sell stops likely building below. USD/JPY is maintaining a foothold above the pivotal 88.00 level while GBP/USD is consolidating below its fresh two-month highs at 1.5291 probed earlier today.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:00 (US) Treasury's Barr
- 14:00 (US)Minutes of FOMC Meeting
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 10.9%e v 10.7% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 15.2% prior
- 16:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Tax Collections (BRL): 64.1Be v 61.1B prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia May Trade Balance: $454.0Me v $484.8M prior



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