The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2680
level and was capped around the $1.2735 level. Data released in the U.S. today saw MBA
mortgage applications reverse course and decline 2.9%, underscoring the lack of
strength in the U.S. housing market.Also, the June import price index was off 1.3% m/m and up 4.5% y/y while
June headline advance retal sales were off 0.5%, better than the revised prior
print of -1.1%.Additionally, the
ex-autos retail sales component was off 0.1%, as expected, and May business
inventories weakened to +0.1% from the prior reading of +0.4%.The big news in the U.S. today involved the
release of the Federal Open Market Committee meetingâs minutes from the most
recent FOMC meeting.Fed officials
reported they would have to âconsider whether further policy stimulus might
become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably.âThe Fedâs risk to its economic outlook âshifted
to the downsideâ and most Fed officials noted they preferred to defer asset
sales for some time.Some Fed
policymakers cited âsome risks of deflationâ while others suggested âinflation
was unlikely to fall appreciably further given stability of expectations.âThe economic outlook was noted to have âsoftened
somewhatâ and Fed officials also revised their economic forecasts.GDP growth projections were reduced,
unemployment projections were raised, and inflation expectations were
lowered.The Fed now sees 2010 real GDP
growth between 3.0% to 3.5%, now sees the 2010 unemployment rate between 9.2%
to 9.5%, and now sees the 2010 PCE price index between 1.0% and 1.1%.In
eurozone news, data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-16 June consumer
price inflation up 0.0% m/m and 1.4% y/y, as expected, while the core rate
edged higher to 0.9% y/y, also as expected.Other data released today saw May industrial production up 0.9% m/m and
9.4% y/y, cooler-than-expected. Dealers
eagerly await the results of stress tests on 91 European banks on 23 July.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the Â„88.25
level and was capped around the Â„89.10 level.Bank of Japan is expected to keep its overnight call rate target unchanged
at 0.10% when its interest rate announcement is made tonight. The central bank
may also raise its forecast for real economic growth in fiscal year 2010 to
above 2% on account of stronger-than-expected increases in exports and
production.Some economists are
predicting the central bank may lift its forecast to as much as 2.5%.Traders are closely monitoring the newest
political party in Japan, the âYour Party,â to see how it interacts with the
ruling Democratic Party of Japan that recently lost an upper house
election.The new party is seeking to
revise the Bank of Japan law so the central bank can target an inflation rate
of 2% within two to three years.The
International Monetary Fund called on Japan to cap its public debt and said the
yen is âbroadly in lineâ with its long-term equilibrium value.The IMF also pressed the central bank for
additional monetary easing.Some dealers
believe the BoJ may be forced to purchase additional quantities of Japanese
government bonds, a policy that some policymakers will resist.Data released in Japan yesterday saw May
industrial production up 0.1% m/m and 20.4% y/y with May capacity utilization
up 0.8% m/m.Also, June consumer
confidence improved to 43.6 from the prior print of 42.7.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 2.71% to
close at Â„9,795.24.U.S. dollar bids are
cited around the Â„86.29 level.The euro
moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the Â„112.05 level and was capped around the Â„113.25 level.The
British pound moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested offers around
the Â„135.75 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested bids around the Â„83.45 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7748 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7725. Data to
be released in China tonight night include Q2 GDP growth, June producer prices,
June consumer prices, June retail sales, and June industrial production.The economy is expected to have expanded an
annualized 10.5% in the second quarter.
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Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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