Thursday July 15, 2010 - 03:45:36 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 15-Jul-2010 - 0308 GMT
The US Equities were flat yesterday on account of weak retail sales data followed by a weak economic foreast from the Fed. The Dow (10366.72) was up 0.04% while the S&P 500 (1095.17) was down 0.02%. The earning sentiments are still bullish which may move the Dow up towards 10500 over today and tomorrow.
The Asian Equities are all in the Red today. The Nikkei (9694.67, down 1.03%) may go up to 10000 in the coming days while the Shanghai (2470.43, flat) may find it difficult to rise past 2500-50 immediately. The Indian markets rose to their highest levels since 2008 but fell on profit booking yesterday. The Sensex (17938.16) and the Nifty (5386.15) closed down 0.27%. The Sensex may move towards 18200-50 in the coming days.
Crude (76.59) has come off from yesterday's high of 78.15. Though the EIA's report showed a drop in Crude inventories, unexpected increase in gasoline and distillate inventories, Fed's concern on economic recovery and weak retail sales pulled down the price.Support is seen in 76-75 region which if holds might see a rise once again towards 78-79 in the coming days.
Gold (1210.90) is continuing to be ranged between 1185-1220 over the last several days. Support is seen in 1185-75 region and a dip towards this Suopport can be considered as a good opportunity to buy as the broader outlook remain bullish.
Dollar is continuing to trade weak. The Euro (1.2749) has very significant Resistance in 1.2765-85 region which is holding as of now. It might test the Support at 1.2700 today. Dollar-Yen (88.26) is continuing to be ranged between 88-89. Lack of upside momentum leaves higher chances of breaking below 88 and witnessing a downmove towards 87.50-87.00 in the coming days. Euro-Yen Cross (112.50) failed to see a strong break above 113 in its various attempts made yesterday and is retaining the overall downside pressure. We might see a dip to 111-110.
The Pound (1.5274) is continuing to trade strong. But it has very significant Trendline Resistance at 1.5295 which might hold for sometime. Dollar-Swiss (1.0508) is retaining its downside pressure and is trading near a very crucial Support at 1.0500, a break below which might pull it further down towards 1.0420-00 today. Aussie (0.8818) has come off after testing the 21-Week-MA (0.8873) yesterday as expected. A strong break below 0.8800 might trigger a downmove towards 0.8700-0.8600.
The Asian currencies are trading strong. The Korean-Won is trading near 1176 and the Sing dollar is trading near 1.3750. Dollar-Rupee has closed yesterday at 46.69/70 and might fall today and test the Support region (46.60-40) following the overall weakness in the dollar.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.53%. The 2Y yield and the 10Y yield were down 3 bps and 1 bps to quote at 0.60% and 3.04% respectively.
03:49 GMT BOJ Meeting
...Expected 0.10%...Previous 0.10%
13:15 GMT US June Industrial Production
...Expected 0.0%...Previous 1.3%
13:15 GMT US June Capacity Utilization
...Expected 74.2%...Previous 74.1%
14:00 GMT June US Philifed Index
...Expected 11.4...Previous 8.0
12:30 GMT US June Core PPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.2%
12:30 GMT US June Core PPI (YoY)
UK Cons Conf
...Actual 63...Previous 66
...Actual 7.8%...Previous 8.0%
EU June CPI (YoY)
...Actual 0.9%...Previous 0.8%
EU June IND Prodn (MoM)
...Actual 0.9%...Previous 0.9%
US June Retail Sales
...Actual -0.5%...Previous -1.2%
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